A message to some day traders.

fan27 said:
@Amahrix What are you getting out of this? Some people day trade and/or backtest. It either works for them or it doesn't. Move on man. WTF do you care what others are doing anyway?
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Let me be, should I go to people on forums who agree with me? I am challenging myself challenging others... and it's fun. This is fun...
 
Amahrix said:
Let me be, should I go to people on forums who agree with me? I am challenging myself challenging others... and it's fun. This is fun...
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Fair enough...if this is how you get your "kicks", looks like you have plenty of willing participants.
 
fan27 said:
Fair enough...if this is how you get your "kicks", looks like you have plenty of willing participants.
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I believe 2 people got something useful out of this. And that's 2 more than I could've hoped for. So it's a win in that regard. This post was mosted viewed last week with 6,000 and over the weekend another 7,000 views. There are probably a few more in there that have saved themselves that I'll never know of.
 
fan27 said:
Fair enough...if this is how you get your "kicks", looks like you have plenty of willing participants.
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There's always something to be learned from conversations like this. The most important parts are the questions that are left unanswered on both sides. Stuff that keeps physicists and traders up at night!
 
ZTrader888 said:
There's always something to be learned from conversations like this. The most important parts are the questions that are left unanswered on both sides. Stuff that keeps physicists and traders up at night!
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I'll get to all your comments soon, about Simons, and etc. :)<3
 
ZTrader888 said:
What is physics about? It's about measurement. What is science? Science is two things: discovery and evidence. How is the market any different? "Social science" is a lot of psychobabble. Sure, if you take that approach, you may as well assume that the market is random. You're not going to apply any sound mathematical/scientific principles to the work anyway.

Anything that can be measured falls within the category of science regardless how you do the measurement. Not understanding that may be the biggest reason why that 90% failure rate exists. But the question of the 10% still goes unanswered. How does "social science" answer the question of the 10%?
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1) The market is different because you cannot apply the scientific method to human behavior. Charlatans say you can. They made a field about it; psychology and created the "IQ"

2) You can use math. But apply with caution;
“Probability is not a mere computation of odds on the dice or more complicated variants; it is the acceptance of the lack of certainty in our knowledge and the development of methods for dealing with our ignorance.”

― Nassim Nicholas Taleb, Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

3) Social science understands just about nothing. Waste of a field. If social science disappears tomorrow, world will be the same with major effect. Waste.
 
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Wheezooo said:
Amahrix,
On page 15 of this thread, I really wish you would comment beyond "Let's keep it simple,"
I am asking for personal reasons, I'm working on a book that adheres religiously to most of what you say, so much so that out of intellectual honesty I feel compelled to talk about various instances where I have seen the market not act randomly (a word that really needs clear definition). One of which, but an undeniable example, is the multiple times I've created support and resistance by my own presence. Sometimes for hours, sometimes for days, or even weeks. Visible resistance that anyone can see on a chart and which is certainly not being formed randomly.

Where does this non-hypothetical fall?

Yes, I know this puts your back against a wall, and few people have the capacity to bend. Nonetheless I would love to see if you have any acceptance to this, as you are the ultimate resistance to this argument, and ultimately as everything else falls reasonably well within the standards accepted by academia (I despise academia), I am not sure whether I shut my mouth and leave it out, but it feels terribly dishonest to do so.
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Also, read Nassim Taleb's Incerto (Fooled by Randomness, Black Swan, Antifragile, Skin in the Game) before continuing writing your book. Take my recommendation. Purchase each book individually versus the Incerto set (because cost is cheaper). Actually you can find the PDFs online for free, at least for Fooled by Randomness.
 
Amahrix said:
Before reading the content: Please block me going forward.

Excerpt from Fooled by Randomness. The hidden role of chance in life and in the markets.' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Page 134-136
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Read it (the book cover to cover .... when it came out and at least once more since) but much prefer How Markets Really Work by Larry Connors 1st edition. Haven't picked up new 2nd edition as yet. For every pro this or that there is a con.
 
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