A message to some day traders.

ZTrader888 · Sep 22, 2019

Amahrix said:
Predictions don't predict where it counts. The tails!

This goes back to Renaissance's emphasis on survival and hedges against risk of ruin as the number 1 rule for successful trading that almost no retail trader understands. After understanding this, they can safely make any prediction they want to make.

I am also saying that prediction is easier when you have signal. There is no signal in 30 minute data on intra-day, but signal emerges the farther you zoom out.

I think you're avoiding the mathematics like the plague. Survival and hedges are structured strategies. Strategies have shape, form and consist of numbers. Repeatable numbers are what constitutes prediction. If you have the shape, form and numbers that are repeatable, you have prediction. Therefore, the data you just analyzed is not random. If it was random, your outcome would be random. And it's not.

Real Money · Sep 22, 2019

I already answered your apple chart question. Globex was buying every dip and the institutions were liquidating stock (aggressively). They were selling into the bid all day. The news hit at the perfect time. There were 3 waves of buying on globex and the news hit right at the point of exhaustion of the third wave. I'm not using TA, I'm using quant modeling techniques. Not random to me but I dont buy price action blindly.

Amahrix · Sep 22, 2019

Real Money said:
I already answered your apple chart question. Globex was buying every dip and the institutions were liquidating stock (aggressively). They were selling into the bid all day. The news hit at the perfect time. There were 3 waves of buying on globex and the news hit right at the point of exhaustion of the third wave. I'm not using TA, I'm using quant modeling techniques. Not random to me but I dont buy price action blindly.

Thanks Real money, I bet you can give me a fable for Apples daily charts starting with January 2nd, 2019 to last Friday. Make a newsletter and tell me the story every day of Apples daily charts til year end. you’ll get buyers. Humans love stories.

Real Money · Sep 22, 2019

Actually, read it again. I said I don't use TA (here's where you say something about tail risk).

ElectricSavant · Sep 22, 2019

I just got an idea...make a candle out of the net tail value....

Amahrix said:
No one knows the stats, we don't know how many dead bodies are in the graveyard (the failures) to count and compare against non-failures. That is not the point. The point is to highlight that by sheer luck, a small group in the large sample set can have long winning streaks doing what they're doing and it is possible to be sheer luck.

Traditional day trading using TA to look into past and into the future assumes

1) A deterministic view.
2) Assumes data carries a precise intended message of the future.

Reality is

1) Daily charts, intra-day charts are randomly constructed. Randomness meaning incomplete information.
2) Prediction doesn't predict where it matters/where it has the biggest impact, that is the tails. Data does not embed information about the future.

Wittgenstein’s ruler: Unless you have confidence in the ruler’s reliability, if you use a ruler to measure a table you may also be using the table to measure the ruler. The less you trust the ruler’s reliability, the more information you are getting about the ruler and the less about the table.

The ONLY test of intelligence that counts is to see if the person detects Wittgenstein's ruler situations: 1) When you use a ruler to measure the table, you are also using the table to measure the ruler. 2) The more unexpected the measurement, the more you apply W's ruler.

This means that you're actually getting more information about the tool (Technical Analysis in this case, and it's ineffectiveness) than about the chart you're studying.

But fools keep blaming everything but the ruler in their hands.................................................................... then you have a couple dozen that "succeed" and then the fools believe it is possible, combine that with those that are succeeding and thinking they're god and they start writing ebooks about how they do it, then when others apply their strategy they lose........because it doesn't work!

KCalhoun · Sep 22, 2019

you guys have a refreshingly intelligent discussion going on (seriously)

bloomberg1 · Sep 22, 2019

KCalhoun said:
great discussion, in day trading since '99 I've found:

a) the MATH is a Lot more important than chart patterns/ta;

b) what works best is tight stops, re-entries, scaling, improving entry/exit timing w/t&s;
I often do 25-40 trades daily; trade often/small; I've done over 7,600 real-money trades in my fidelity acct this year alone

c) pay close attention to $TRIN & $VIX

d) best to trade "out" vs in days & charts; eg when S&P is above/below prior day's high/low

e) trading low-float sub-$10 stocks is for morons & gamblers; best price range is $15-$50

f) i use conditional OTO orders to auto-set initial/trailing stops, & buy-stop limit orders to enter

g) the most important part of chart is the range, not so much prior patterns

h) i use 2-day charts to see pd OHLC & ORB

i) some of my most profitable days are ones in which I have way more stops than wins; what matters MOST in day trading is itty bitty af stops (most of mine are sub $40; eg 200 shares on a breakout w/.20 cent stop = $40 bfd)

j) my biggest losing days ($500ish) are ones in which i overtrade 1-3pm; I try to be done by 10:30 daily

k) I never got comfortable trading 1k+ shares

l) I'm shocked & disappointed to see popularity of young bs educators who mislead the public into believing that day trading low-float pos thinly traded/frontrunning sub $10 stocks is viable. mirror accounts, sim passed off as real, lots of bs $ claims on yt/ig social etc. ETers, you guys mostly know better; the general public notsomuch sigh.

I like day trading stocks/etfs/etns like MU AMD TWTR SQQQ VXX etc.

-ken

View attachment 209640

Hi Ken,

Do you bother with index futures at all ? Interested in your thoughts regarding ORB ? Thnaks

SimpleMeLike · Sep 22, 2019

Amahrix said:
I believe if your strategy entails looking into the past for patterns and apply to future... and the past is defined as anything from 1 minute ago, to say, 1 year. Your success to-date is a result of luck disguised and perceived as nonluck(what we call, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (what we call, determinism).

Assuming market movements on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 3 day, 1 year chart are random. You're strategy is based on predicting randomness, but that's the thing... you cannot predict something that is random. Why? BECAUSE IT IS RANDOM

HOW CAN YOU SERIOUSLY TAKE A TRADING STRATEGY THAT DERIVES ITS INFORMATION FROM THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE, ESPECIALLY IF THAT DATA IS LESS THAN 1 YEAR AGO AND Y'ALL DO TRADES BASED AROUND 5 MINUTE MOVEMENT.... YOU'RE FOOLING YOURSELF!!!

You're a LUCKY FOOL. You'll be a net loser in the long run.

I highly suggest you read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb before placing another trade, I actually think its free online on his website, in fact.

In my opinion, even looking into 5 years worth of data and deriving a trend/pattern is hocus pocus. You become a victim of too many fallacies beginning with narrative. How do you really know you really know what you're looking at.

How are you guys not scared of losing your money? But it's deserved, because you're a fool.

P.S. If you believe the past is not random and can predict patterns from the past and apply to the future.... please realize that there is literally no consistent winner of predictions over a large period of time. It is bound that some people among the sample will win money for a long time and appear that they're skilled, but they're not, they're fooled by randomness. Wake up...

You understand what I mean...unless you really don't want to, for whatever reasons.

Amahrix,

Your post is very stupid and makes ZERO sense. You should be ashamed of yourself for posting such nonsense.

Amahrix · Sep 22, 2019

SimpleMeLike said:
Amahrix,

Your post is very stupid and makes ZERO sense. You should be ashamed of yourself for posting such nonsense.

Nice edit? Here is the answer to your backtesting question that you deleted, imbecile.

Problems with backtesting Excerpt from Fooled by Randomness. The hidden role of chance in life and in the markets.' by Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Page 134-136

A backtester is a software program connected to a database of historical prices, which allows me to check the hypothetical past performance of any trading rule of average complexity. I can just apply a mechanical trading rule, like buy NASDAQ stocks if they close more than 1.83% above their average of the previous week, and immediately get an idea of its past performance. The screen will flash my hypothetical track record associated with the trading rule. If I do not like the results, I can change the percentage to, say 1.2%. I can also make the rule more complex, I will keep trying until I find something that works well.

What am I doing? The exact same task of looking for the survivor within the set of rules that can possibly work. I am fitting the rule on the data. This activity is called data snooping. The more I try, the more I am likely, by mere luck, to find a rule that worked on the past data. A random series will always present some detectable pattern. I am convinced that there exist a tradable security in the Western world that would be 100% correlated with the changes in the temperature in Ulan Bator, Mongolia.

An outstanding paper by Sullivan, Timmerman and white goes further and considers that the rules that may be in use successfully today may be the result of survivorship bias.

Suppose that over time, investors have experimented with technical trading rules drawn from a very wide universe in principle thousands of parameters of variety of types of rules. As time progresses, the rules that happen to perform well historically received more attention and are considered serious contenders by the investment community, while unsuccessful trading rules are more likely to be forgotten. If enough trading rules are considered over time, some rules are bound by pure luck, even in a very large sample, to produce superior performance even if they do not genuinely possess predictive power over asset returns.

I have to decry some excess in backtesting that I have closely witnessed in my private career. There is an excellent product designed just for that, called Omega TradeStation, that is currently on the market, in use by tens of thousands of traders. It even offers its own computer language. Beset with insomnia, the computerized day traders become night testers plowing the data for some of its properties. By dint of adjusting the rules the trader will hit upon hypothetical gold somewhere. Many of them will blindly believe in it.

Amahrix · Sep 22, 2019

SimpleMeLike said:
Amahrix,

Your post is very stupid and makes ZERO sense. You should be ashamed of yourself for posting such nonsense.

Fool, block me.

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