what is the meaning of random since you used that word
A message to some day traders.
- Thread starter Amahrix
- Start date
what is the meaning of random since you used that word
I will tell you;
”While in theory randomness is an intrinsic property, in practice, randomness is incomplete information.“ - Nassim Taleb
Only because signal(information) emerged in the data(China news) and signal makes prediction easier, still faulty because you never really know; depends on the importance of the signal.
Check my post below.
Last edited:
Most trading days of the year are uneventful, put simply, they're randomly constructed.
A few trading days of the year, lets say 14 days out of 252 trading days, carry the signal to move the market and produce returns, in our example below, positive returns.
Hypothetically, lets say at year 2020 end of year market return is 20%. In this hypothetical, the 20% return will be a result of (2) weeks worth of trading days, so 14 days, out of 252 trading days of the year.
Contrary to popular belief, market returns are not Gaussian but follow more of a Cauchy/Levy distribution.
Keeping this in mind, it highlights that most trading days of the year, the chart, is constructed of randomness. You don't know all the forces behind the scenes, you have incomplete information on what is going on. And we know empirically that data does not allow you to use it to predict when prediction matters, such as the tails.
This means that data is always going to noisy, in fact, history is noisy. They're especially noisy if you're just looking at a normal trading day, and 1 normal trading day alone.
For a day trading charlatan to tell me that he can predict next 30 minutes, with prior 30 minutes...or something else similar to this, I want to slap this arrogant bullsh*tter fool across the face.
Not saying he won't make money or will make money, but if that is the strategy, I can confidently say, it is a result of luck.
A few trading days of the year, lets say 14 days out of 252 trading days, carry the signal to move the market and produce returns, in our example below, positive returns.
Hypothetically, lets say at year 2020 end of year market return is 20%. In this hypothetical, the 20% return will be a result of (2) weeks worth of trading days, so 14 days, out of 252 trading days of the year.
Contrary to popular belief, market returns are not Gaussian but follow more of a Cauchy/Levy distribution.
Keeping this in mind, it highlights that most trading days of the year, the chart, is constructed of randomness. You don't know all the forces behind the scenes, you have incomplete information on what is going on. And we know empirically that data does not allow you to use it to predict when prediction matters, such as the tails.
This means that data is always going to noisy, in fact, history is noisy. They're especially noisy if you're just looking at a normal trading day, and 1 normal trading day alone.
For a day trading charlatan to tell me that he can predict next 30 minutes, with prior 30 minutes...or something else similar to this, I want to slap this arrogant bullsh*tter fool across the face.
Not saying he won't make money or will make money, but if that is the strategy, I can confidently say, it is a result of luck.
Last edited:
This is brilliant. Thank You I could not have posted better. Backtesting is a deadend...you cannot put the future into a can...then it would not be the unknown.
ES
ES
no one is giving up here...
Yes, trading is absolute waste of time and money to 99% of people and it's also bad to our health. Giving up is sometimes wise choice.
However, as a hobby, it's better than Casino I think......
You just set minimums and maximums on the past with no regard to reality and what is going on at the time....stress testing is valid...but backtesting is old news...
Amahrix,
Just deal with it satirically ...they do not understand!
ES
Just deal with it satirically ...they do not understand!
ES
F*cking idiot... do you know many suicide stories where everyone thought the suicidal person was happy and randomly find out that he committed suicide and everyone was shocked because every time they saw him he was smiling and happy and everyone is confused that he could do that... even those closest to him.
These types of examples PROVE that you’re sooooooooo damn wrong to believe data has embedded information. You’re soooo wrong. Why are you fooling yourself man. Wtf. I’m genuinely shocked you people fall for this sh*t. I get it, I’m being rude but like dude... seriously? Human behavior is predictable, really......?
I really need you to think critically and question yourself before responding to me again if your arrogance has exceeded your true level of knowledge and if so, which I believe it has, close the gap.
Actually on 2nd thought I don’t think your arrogant at all. I think you’re prolly a really dope nice guy that’s just Fooled.. but then again maybe cuz arrogance idk
Edit: nope, your arrogant. Concluded. Paradoxically tho, I sound more arrogant. But mine is justified