A message to some day traders.

Amahrix said:
Which should remind people about the limits of inductive reasoning. But they point & blame and go back to the tools that originally failed them.
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I think what I am trying to say, is that until this trade war is resolved, all TA and PA is out the window. The old setups do not apply, due to the random nature of a tweet or comment from the China dudes.
 
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This is what happens when the POTUS goes head to head with Xi Jinping. He just got done saying that there wasn't going to be an easy deal for China! Then the news hit. Time to SELL!
There was a massive leg down in 10 year yields.
 
Overnight said:
I think what I am trying to say, is that until this trade war is resolved, all TA and PA is out the window. The old setups do not apply, due to the random nature of a tweet or comment from the China dudes.
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You continue to blame everything else but the tools in your hand.
 
Amahrix said:
I believe if your strategy entails looking into the past for patterns and apply to future... and the past is defined as anything from 1 minute ago, to say, 1 year. Your success to-date is a result of luck disguised and perceived as nonluck(what we call, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (what we call, determinism).

Assuming market movements on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 3 day, 1 year chart are random. You're strategy is based on predicting randomness, but that's the thing... you cannot predict something that is random. Why? BECAUSE IT IS RANDOM

HOW CAN YOU SERIOUSLY TAKE A TRADING STRATEGY THAT DERIVES ITS INFORMATION FROM THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE, ESPECIALLY IF THAT DATA IS LESS THAN 1 YEAR AGO AND Y'ALL DO TRADES BASED AROUND 5 MINUTE MOVEMENT.... YOU'RE FOOLING YOURSELF!!!

You're a LUCKY FOOL. You'll be a net loser in the long run.

I highly suggest you read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb before placing another trade, I actually think its free online on his website, in fact.

In my opinion, even looking into 5 years worth of data and deriving a trend/pattern is hocus pocus. You become a victim of too many fallacies beginning with narrative. How do you really know you really know what you're looking at.

How are you guys not scared of losing your money? But it's deserved, because you're a fool.

P.S. If you believe the past is not random and can predict patterns from the past and apply to the future.... please realize that there is literally no consistent winner of predictions over a large period of time. It is bound that some people among the sample will win money for a long time and appear that they're skilled, but they're not, they're fooled by randomness. Wake up...

You understand what I mean...unless you really don't want to, for whatever reasons.
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Hello Surf.
 
themickey said:
Yeah, Surf rarely swore, eh fibo_trader. :)
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I can't wait to tell this story to some young bucks when they ask me about any interesting stories I have to share regarding fools of the world.

"Well there was this one time I dropped a bunch of truth bombs, and instead of refuting my argument, they just argued about my identity becuz they thought I was someone else; they fooled themselves and ironically the topic is about fools. They simply became an example of the point I was trying to make in the post itself"
 
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