A message to some day traders.

[Amahrix]

OMG, it is Fibo? *Pleghm* Remember this gem?

"Correct Sir, the very same Bear Market that started October 2007 - first leg down ended March 2009. Then came the Bear Market rally that ended January 26, 2018. Then came the head fake bull trap with the marginal higher high, which as you know was not confirmed by the NYSE Composite. In fact the weakness of that higher high into Sept 2018 was on such staggering divergence on RSI(21), it was as close to obvious we are allowed in one lifetime. Short was the way to be."

I am sure he is getting rich on his bear trades.

Are you guys saying that I am someone else? I’m still confused if he is referring to me or the guy he quoted originally.

 

[Overnight]

Are you guys saying that I am someone else? I’m still confused if he is referring to me or the guy he quoted originally.

We are confused as well. You tell us.

 

[Amahrix]

We are confused as well. You tell us.

I think that that person whether referring to me
or the person he quoted is looking too deep into things.

JUST KIDDING, you got meeeeeeee I’m NNT.

(Just joking)...

Anyways about your prior post predictability became easier after signal appeared on the chart, in this case, thru the deliverance of market moving news. But without it, it goes back to being constructed based on Randomness. Pce

 

[wrbtrader]

 

[Amahrix]

Umm, no, the news events pretty much determined the direction for the rest of the day on those dates listed, including today, Sep 20th, 2019. Yes, the news events came out of nowhere. RANDOM.

I am talking both "DAILY CHARTS", and intraday charts. Market sentiment is moved by the fundamentals, so that is not RANDOM. The markets bounce around these news events when they occur. The timeframes matter, for sure.

The sentiment starting on May 5th was down. And for two weeks, the market did drive down. That was not random movement. ON DAILY CHARTS.

Then sentiment reversed when NQurious saw it, at the end of May. It then took only two weeks for the market to go right back to where it was.

Same shit happened on August 1st. The ups and downs that occurred between peaks and nadirs are random in the intraweek motions, but fundamentally, they are not RANDOM. They are following a trend that is reversed by a solid fundamental shift in sentiment.

There is nothing RANDOM about a shift in sentiment. On DAILY CHARTS.

And stop asking the mods to trace IP addresses. Respect privacy, even if you don't care about your own. You seem to be reaching.

I re-read this and forgot to mention, along with my prior post, that it also reeks with hindsight bias.

 

[Overnight]

I re-read this and forgot to mention, along with my prior post, that it also reeks with hindsight bias.

Of COURSE it reeks with hindsight bias, you dolt! But that hindsight analysis can read the future! If in the future, Trump tweets that he is implementing more tariffs on China products, would you long equities?

No. History has told us now what happens when Trump tweets bad tariff stuff. Markets go down. Fast. and they trend down.

Vice-versa. Where is the random after that fact?

Your time is past, you who believe in random noise over a long time frame.

The market is biased-up, with the occasional pullback on Trump trade war and the Fed.

 

[Amahrix]

Of COURSE it reeks with hindsight bias, you dolt! But that hindsight analysis can read the future! If in the future, Trump tweets that he is implementing more tariffs on China products, would you long equities?

No. History has told us now what happens when Trump tweets bad tariff stuff. Markets go down. Fast. and they trend down.

Vice-versa. Where is the random after that fact?

Your time is past, you who believe in random noise over a long time frame.

The market is biased-up, with the occasional pullback on Trump trade war and the Fed.

You can visibly see the source of the signal in your example. But when there is no signal such as most days of the year, and in places like daily or intra day charts, you mistake randomness for signal.

Never the less over a long enough time frame, signal emerges in the data.

 

[Overnight]

You can visibly see the source of the signal in your example. But when there is no signal such as most days of the year, and in places like daily or intra day charts, you mistake randomness for signal.

Never the less over a long enough time frame, signal emerges in the data.

Until a trade/tariff headline happens. That that obliterates everything on your charts. Like it did today! So you may have had a long signal form on the chart, it started to look like a bottom bounce for a long. But then 1:13PM happened. I am glad I was not long.

 

[Amahrix]

Until a trade/tariff headline happens. That that obliterates everything on your charts. Like it did today! So you may have had a long signal form on the chart, it started to look like a bottom bounce for a long. But then 1:13PM happened. I am glad I was not long.

Which should remind people about the limits of inductive reasoning. But they point & blame and go back to the tools that originally failed them.

 

[Real Money]

Globex had seen bullish spec interest all day up to the news. This means that when the news hit and took levels they had to pay up HARD to cut their exposure. This is obvious if you are watching the inter exchange arbitrage. Prior to the news the risk was skewed very much to the downside.

The chart I posted a while back overlays a (proprietary) process that measures arbitrage between Chicago and New York.