A message to some day traders.

[Amahrix]

Ok @Amahrix, We help make this thread the "Thread of the week"... Maybe you are right and let hope our luck doesn't run out forever... Can we let it go now?

I put it this way:

Survive long enough, you’ll end up having luck elevate you as well as profiting just generally.

My argument is simply that these people will not survive long enough because of their lack of knowledge or awareness of the limitations of knowledge itself and their false belief and wishful thinking that is pervasive in their deluded, fantastical strategy that takes short term, intra-day data and uses it to predict future price movement And when they profit they attribute it to the skill in their analysis with it was more random than they give it credit for.

Something like that.

 

[Amahrix]

Many agree with you for the most part, however I don't agree about it being 99% random.
There is nothing in trading which can be conclusive, ie there are abnormalities in every situation.
To say "without a shadow of doubt daytrading winnings is luck" is putting trading into a box.
You cannot collectively put all day trading or 99% to being random.
Are you God? Do you know all men? Are you the author of all knowledge?

Thx for your strawman /sarcasm
I didn’t say “without a shadow of a doubt” that day trading winnings is luck but that it’s much much much much much much much much more luck than “successful” day traders credit it for.

Also, today’s Apple chart... was it constructed purely randomly or does it contain a precise intended message that only a select few voodoo magic ball traders have access to that can foresee the future like an Omniscient God?

The one day chart contains no signal. Many market participants traded in it today. A collection of long term investors, speculators, day traders, hedgers, market makers etc, there is no predictability that can be derived intra day to predict the next 30 minute movement. It may appear that there is, but I’m arguign that they’re seeing things.

Do you believe intraday data is deterministic or constructed randomly.

It needs to be interpreted as randomly, otherwise you’re guessing if it is or isn’t. Because we know that we can’t find signal in such a short trading time range. Because we are humble with our knowledge and know our limits and don’t divulge into wishful thinking. I’m done.

 

[R1234]

I have been Daytrading futures for some years now using only Techincal analysis. I am up by 7% (average ) every month and the worst drawdown is around -13%.... Am i also Lucky or Is this a coincidence?

Assuming you are telling the truth, very nice!

 

[MACD]

6) I do believe in trading, I’m a trader, but I make zero predictions in my strategy. Absolutely ZERO. because I know I don’t really know. I use survival heuristics to protect myself against ruin and I take my chances in just about everything the market has to offer.

Amen, Amen, @Amahrix

 

[Overnight]

It's more random than you think. a lot more. guy, we're talking daily charts here.... DAILY.

Umm, no, the news events pretty much determined the direction for the rest of the day on those dates listed, including today, Sep 20th, 2019. Yes, the news events came out of nowhere. RANDOM.

I am talking both "DAILY CHARTS", and intraday charts. Market sentiment is moved by the fundamentals, so that is not RANDOM. The markets bounce around these news events when they occur. The timeframes matter, for sure.

The sentiment starting on May 5th was down. And for two weeks, the market did drive down. That was not random movement. ON DAILY CHARTS.

Then sentiment reversed when NQurious saw it, at the end of May. It then took only two weeks for the market to go right back to where it was.

Same shit happened on August 1st. The ups and downs that occurred between peaks and nadirs are random in the intraweek motions, but fundamentally, they are not RANDOM. They are following a trend that is reversed by a solid fundamental shift in sentiment.

There is nothing RANDOM about a shift in sentiment. On DAILY CHARTS.

And stop asking the mods to trace IP addresses. Respect privacy, even if you don't care about your own. You seem to be reaching.

 

[LS1Z28]

This proves my point. The Roku chart doesn't have any information embedded in today's data that you can use to predict future price movement, the same way that yesterday's chart, or last weeks chart, or last months charged did not have embedded information that would have told you about this random -18% drop. Now if you look at a 2 year Roku chart, it has more information than today's daily chart.

Was the drop random, or was it due to the fact that Apple, Facebook, & Comcast have announced that they're entering the streaming space over the past few days? It sure seems to me that money is moving out of Roku because investors are afraid that they'll lose market share due to increased competition. Fear is a predictable human emotion.

I struggle to see predictable opportunities in intra-day charts if they're moving with regular volume without any catalyst to drive them. But everyone sees thing differently. What seems like random chaos to me may be crystal clear to someone else.

 

[MACD]

You know.. I notice when people don’t have nothing to say but want to say something (for whatever reason) they usually leave a comment exactly the way you left yours.

“You’re reading too much Nassim maaaaannnn” etc etc as a way to perhaps discredit, or make less important, or reduce the emotional impact of truth bombs by indirectly or directly implying I’m a nut job cult follower of sorts.

So useless.

Also don’t strawman me. Its one thing to look at historical data that runs many many many years and even decades, than a 1 hour, 1 day, 7 day chart and try to extrapolate data and use this as a means for good forecasting.

And yea it’s late and I wanna have some fun so that’s really why I’m out here sacrificing myself to get the truth out.

@Amahrix -- just might be the smartest person in the room. I sure would want him on my Debating Team!

 

[Amahrix]

Umm, no, the news events pretty much determined the direction for the rest of the day on those dates listed, including today, Sep 20th, 2019. Yes, the news events came out of nowhere. RANDOM.

I am talking both "DAILY CHARTS", and intraday charts. Market sentiment is moved by the fundamentals, so that is not RANDOM. The markets bounce around these news events when they occur. The timeframes matter, for sure.

The sentiment starting on May 5th was down. And for two weeks, the market did drive down. That was not random movement. ON DAILY CHARTS.

Then sentiment reversed when NQurious saw it, at the end of May. It then took only two weeks for the market to go right back to where it was.

Same shit happened on August 1st. The ups and downs that occurred between peaks and nadirs are random in the intraweek motions, but fundamentally, they are not RANDOM. They are following a trend that is reversed by a solid fundamental shift in sentiment.

There is nothing RANDOM about a shift in sentiment. On DAILY CHARTS.

And stop asking the mods to trace IP addresses. Respect privacy, even if you don't care about your own. You seem to be reaching.

Market direction WAS easier to predict because finally some SIGNAL (news event) appeared in the chart. Hence better predictability.

 

[Amahrix]

@Amahrix -- just might be the smartest person in the room. I sure would want him on my Debating Team!

My cheerleader.

 

[Overnight]

This guy has been on ET before a few times, different nics, I wasn't going to bother checking but anyhow I did.
This is fibo_trader..... funny guy....
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/bear-market-almost-ready-to-resume.330744/

OMG, it is Fibo? *Pleghm* Remember this gem?

"Correct Sir, the very same Bear Market that started October 2007 - first leg down ended March 2009. Then came the Bear Market rally that ended January 26, 2018. Then came the head fake bull trap with the marginal higher high, which as you know was not confirmed by the NYSE Composite. In fact the weakness of that higher high into Sept 2018 was on such staggering divergence on RSI(21), it was as close to obvious we are allowed in one lifetime. Short was the way to be."

I am sure he is getting rich on his bear trades.