A message to some day traders.

[Peter10]

Not random but no one can see that stuff coming unless you're a serious insider.

Or you have a very fast computer...I mean HFT not point and click trading...

 

[Amahrix]

Or you have a very fast computer...I mean HFT not point and click trading...

Stop falling for this stuff Peter. Those HFT are not profiting from interpreting past data to future predicted movements like day traders. Portion of profits come from latency arb.

 

[Overnight]

I was waiting for this comment. I knew a fool would bring this up.

It was RANDOM, it was ABSOLUTELY RANDOM IN ITS VERY NATURE!...

Yes, we know the news is random in nature, in that we do not know when things like this happen. But the market direction following the event is not random at all. It follows the sentiment.

See May 5th and August 1st for reference?

 

[imjohn]

Thx for sharing your results. 622 times is low sample, run a monte carlo simulation that does it 10,000,000 times and see what the results produce.

10,000,000?

IF the single signal occurred 1,000 times per year in my timeframes, that would be 10,000 years. The ES contract doesn't go back that far. Are any other actual traders here looking at simulations for 10,000,000 occurrences before you decide whether your potential signal is valid?

My knowledge of statistics is definitely rudimentary, so I'll proceed as an observer on this thread.

 

[Amahrix]

10,000,000?

IF the single signal occurred 1,000 times per year in my timeframes, that would be 10,000 years. The ES contract doesn't go back that far. Are any other actual traders here looking at simulations for 10,000,000 occurrences before you decide whether your potential signal is valid?

My knowledge of statistics is definitely rudimentary, so I'll proceed as an observer on this thread.

You can run a monte carlo simulation based on the probabilities you've experienced when tinkering with your strategy, or "back-testing" and run those probabilities many million times on your computer.

 

[Amahrix]

But the market direction following the event is not random at all.

It's more random than you think. a lot more. guy, we're talking daily charts here.... DAILY.

 

[Peter10]

Maybe you don't know... HFT firms make a lot of money trading the news...They submit their orders milliseconds after the news has been released... Though the competition is fierce, the fastest wins... Speed is their edge...

 

[bone]

You can run a monte carlo simulation based on the probabilities you've experienced when tinkering with your strategy, or "back-testing" and run those probabilities many million times on your computer.

Nassim Taleb would tell you that Monte Carlo simulations UNDERSTATE TAIL RISK.

 

[themickey]

It's more like "I just got done with the audiobook of Fooled By Randomness and it explains why I am so bad at trading". Audiobook, because OP is illiterate based on his typing style.

His attitude fits firmly in the "holier than thou" attitudes of people who religiously quote Sagan, Degrasse Tyson, etc. He probably weighs 400 lbs, smells of moldy fries, and makes fun of people because they read the bible.

His IQ seems insanely high. Reminds me of another guy...ah yes - perhaps this guy and @lentus would get along just fine.

This guy has been on ET before a few times, different nics, I wasn't going to bother checking but anyhow I did.
This is fibo_trader..... funny guy....
https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/bear-market-almost-ready-to-resume.330744/

 

[MKTrader]

Or you have a very fast computer...I mean HFT not point and click trading...

Near impossible for retail traders...as far as I know. As for your claim, making 7% monthly for years using just TA, that flies in the face of two realities:

1) Pretty much every TA chart, indicator, system has been tested or tried. The vast majority never worked with any consistency. Those that have worked at some point tend to have very short shelf lives...the market is just too efficient and algo-dominated...plus the big boys would data mine and arb away any profits available from simple TA approaches

2) If you compounded even 3-4% monthly (assuming some is used for living expenses, taxes, etc) you'd amass a fortune fast. But to this day there's never been a single retail trader on any Fortune 500 type list. There should be dozens from ET alone from all the threads and claims I've seen over the years.