A message to some day traders.

Amahrix said:
I believe if your strategy entails looking into the past for patterns and apply to future... and the past is defined as anything from 1 minute ago, to say, 1 year. Your success to-date is a result of luck disguised and perceived as nonluck(what we call, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (what we call, determinism).

Assuming market movements on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 3 day, 1 year chart are random. You're strategy is based on predicting randomness, but that's the thing... you cannot predict something that is random. Why? BECAUSE IT IS RANDOM

HOW CAN YOU SERIOUSLY TAKE A TRADING STRATEGY THAT DERIVES ITS INFORMATION FROM THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE, ESPECIALLY IF THAT DATA IS LESS THAN 1 YEAR AGO AND Y'ALL DO TRADES BASED AROUND 5 MINUTE MOVEMENT.... YOU'RE FOOLING YOURSELF!!!

You're a LUCKY FOOL. You'll be a net loser in the long run.
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I day trade. Have several different signals I’m looking for. Any one of them will get me into a trade.

Looking now at my records for the last 407 days (about 20 months), the most frequently occurring signal is a “trend pullback” that’s occurred 622 times in my timeframes.

Once the signal triggers, I enter, setting a Stop at a level thats 1 tick beyond the signal bar, and a profit target at a level that’s equal to 1.5X the size of the stop. I exit at either point. The price hit the target 307 times (49.35%), and hit the stop 315 times. I’ve experienced several streaks (winning or losing) of up to 7 in a row.

I consider the results entirely random for any single occurrence (or small string of occurrences). For the overall 622 trades, It’s possible that my results could be randomness. I could backtest a prior X amount of days / trades, and discover an entirely different outcome. But I’m content to keep taking this signal (along with my others) into the future until my records show it’s not worthwhile for me to do so.

Though for it to not be profitable, the win rate would need to drop to 40%, at which point it would be breakeven (negative once I factor in commissions). But anything north of that is ok.

There are probably a lot of statistical things I should learn about. I think in trading, what you don’t know can definitely kill you. Maybe I'm a lucky fool and will be a net loser in the long run. Time will tell.
 
Amahrix said:
I hope you're being sarcastic. I really do. Thaler doesn't know what risk is.
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LMAO :Do_O Now you’re just showing your ignorance.

Thaler won the Nobel in 2017 for his work on the limits of human rationality as it relates to financial risk. His academic career was quite literally built on the human perception of financial risk. Literally.

The dude had a prominent cameo appearance in the movie “The Big Short”. TO FUCKING EXPLAIN RISK. He’s the old dude sitting next to Selena Gomez in a casino. Looking into the camera and explaining synthetic CDO risk.

:p:sneaky::cool:
 
imjohn said:
I day trade. Have several different signals I’m looking for. Any one of them will get me into a trade.

Looking now at my records for the last 407 days (about 20 months), the most frequently occurring signal is a “trend pullback” that’s occurred 622 times in my timeframes.

Once the signal triggers, I enter, setting a Stop at a level thats 1 tick beyond the signal bar, and a profit target at a level that’s equal to 1.5X the size of the stop. I exit at either point. The price hit the target 307 times (49.35%), and hit the stop 315 times. I’ve experienced several streaks (winning or losing) of up to 7 in a row.

I consider the results entirely random for any single occurrence (or small string of occurrences). For the overall 622 trades, It’s possible that my results could be randomness. I could backtest a prior X amount of days / trades, and discover an entirely different outcome. But I’m content to keep taking this signal (along with my others) into the future until my records show it’s not worthwhile for me to do so.

Though for it to not be profitable, the win rate would need to drop to 40%, at which point it would be breakeven (negative once I factor in commissions). But anything north of that is ok.

There are probably a lot of statistical things I should learn about. I think in trading, what you don’t know can definitely kill you. Maybe I'm a lucky fool and will be a net loser in the long run. Time will tell.
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Thx for sharing your results. 622 times is low sample, run a monte carlo simulation that does it 10,000,000 times and see what the results produce.
 
bone said:
LMAO :Do_O Now you’re just showing your ignorance.

Thaler won the Nobel in 2017 for his work on the limits of human rationality as it relates to financial risk. His academic career was quite literally built on the human perception of financial risk. Literally.

The dude had a prominent cameo appearance in the movie “The Big Short”. TO FUCKING EXPLAIN RISK WITH SELENA GOMEZ.

:p:sneaky::cool:
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Yikes, you're in the deep end.

Thaler doesn't understand ruin, ergodicity, or risk taking.

You know Scholes & Merton won Nobels too and look at what their models have done to society. Look at LTCM LOL. Nice nobels, they reallllly know what they're talkng aboutttttt.

Thaler knows NOTHING about risk. He is not a practitioner, this is why he knows NOTHING. ABOUT. RISK. ZERO. like actually, ACTUALLY ZERO. I want to be literal as possible, he knows ZERO.
 
OP clearly doesn't understand a lot about market data... price movement arent just coming out randomly, Price changes only when there is an imbalance between supply and demand...
Traders that send the buy or sell orders to the exchange don't open orders randomly. They have their reason for choosing to either buy or to sell (remember they are taking a risk)...
So if you are able to see a reason why more buy orders are coming before it happens, then you have an edge...
 
Peter10 said:
OP clearly doesn't understand a lot about market data... price movement arent just coming out randomly, Price changes only when there is an imbalance between supply and demand...
Traders that send the buy or sell orders to the exchange don't open orders randomly. They have their reason for choosing to either buy or to sell (remember they are taking a risk)...
So if you are able to see a reason why more buy orders are coming before it happens, then you have an edge...
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Thx for ur theories. Unfortunately for you, reality works a bit different. Sorry.
 
Peter10 said:
which evidence do you want me to show?
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Sanitized account statement or tax returns...I'm not asking for them, but no one has any reason to believe you unless you have proof. I can claim to make $1 million a day. Would you just accept that?
 
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