A message to some day traders.

jayboy said:
I have no idea why you would ascribe intentionality to price action. The appropriate question is whether there are repeatable patterns that represent high R-value opportunities.

I don't, and never will, give a shit about an Apple chart because I trade index futures, on which I had five of my indicators flashing sell signals at the Open, three of which specified targets that were reached around 1300 Eastern.

To a mouse, a Gabon Viper has a random pattern that cannot be perceived as anything but leaf litter. You're a mouse and the best thing you can do is to keep trading your swing method and keep believing that day trading is impossible.
More...

I'm done arguing with your dumbass, im not going to sit here and listen to your pseudoscientific magic ball trading strategy that tells you the price action of the future, at the open, based on purely random data. You're a nutjob.

You keep skirting away from the damn question..

Your S&P index future 1 day chart, go look at it... is it randomly constructed or is there a precise intended message of the future that you and your magic ball and turn into action?

If it is randomly constructed, and at the same time you do create patterns out of this randomness, what is the difference between me looking at clouds and seeing human figures or animals being constructed in them? I'd be deluding myself.

idiot
 
Amahrix said:
Look at today's chart of Apple from 6:30am to 11:59am PST. That is 99.9% noise, no signal. You're seeing mosques in the clouds!
More...

What I said is that price is not purely random. Price's purpose is to tell people things. If you refuse to listen to it, it will even get pissy and scream.

One must remember there are many other markets than equities.

As for Apple I don't know what it is saying, I just know I have on countless occasions created support or resistant points in markets that were going to hold for considerable amounts of time, and anyone who had no idea what I was doing, were they a chartest, would have immediately said "hey, look at this chart, there appears to be resistance forming at price x, and they would have been correct."

I could go a heck of a lot deeper about the silliness of pure randomness... products that move in sympathy, support or resistance levels created by lack or excess of physical capacity... Point is, only a fool thinks price is pure randomness... or an economist, who falls lower on the totem pole, and has less experience with markets than a regular fool.
 
Wheezooo said:
What I said is that price is not purely random. Price's purpose is to tell people things. If you refuse to listen to it, it will even get pissy and scream.

One must remember there are many other markets than equities.

As for Apple I don't know what it is saying, I just know I have on countless occasions created support or resistant points in markets that were going to hold for considerable amounts of time, and anyone who had no idea what I was doing, were they a chartest, would have immediately said "hey, look at this chart, there appears to be resistance forming at price x, and they would have been correct."

I could go a heck of a lot deeper about the silliness of pure randomness... products that move in sympathy, support or resistance levels created by lack or excess of physical capacity... Point is, only a fool thinks price is pure randomness... or an economist, who falls lower on the totem pole, and has less experience with markets than a regular fool.
More...

Wheezoo, we need to keep it simple. My argument in this thread is that a 5 minute, 15 minute, 30 minute, 1 hour chart has no real value for a day trader. They're seeing things that don't exist, along with a million other trades and computers that agree to be deluded and act in concert, this is self-fulfilling prophecy. It doesn't change the truth. And the truth is, that short term daily price action is just about 99% noise about 99% of the time and they're seeing things that don't really exist in the real world.

There "strategy" appears to be working because of other reasons that are not the reasons they believe it to be. But they're too fooled to come to this conclusion.
 
jayboy said:
I have no idea why you would ascribe intentionality to price action. The appropriate question is whether there are repeatable patterns that represent high R-value opportunities.

I don't, and never will, give a shit about an Apple chart because I trade index futures, on which I had five of my indicators flashing sell signals at the Open, three of which specified targets that were reached around 1300 Eastern.

To a mouse, a Gabon Viper has a random pattern that cannot be perceived as anything but leaf litter. You're a mouse and the best thing you can do is to keep trading your swing method and keep believing that day trading is impossible.
More...

Guy, did any of the price action from 9:30am-1:00pm EST carry information to assist you with future price direction? No, it just randomly sold off and NOTHING in this world could've warned you ahead of time to make profit from it. If you're crediting yourself with skill when you profit using intra-day charting magic ball technics... you're much more deluded than I thought, you and the gang pumping this nonsense into financial literature.

r57TDor.png


3pKjsRj.png


Intra-day price action couldn't help even Mr. Cramer.
 
Overnight said:
That wasn't a random sell-off, that was a direct result of China trade news. 1:13 PM ET.
More...

I was waiting for this comment. I knew a fool would bring this up.

It was RANDOM, it was ABSOLUTELY RANDOM IN ITS VERY NATURE!

It's only after the fact, after it randomly occurred out of nowhere, that you attach your damn narrative to it. But no one on this planet could've predicted this.. no price action wouldve included this information prior to it occurrence.

Do you not see the trap? Am I the only fucking person here that gets it? OMFG

I'll bet you that TA indicators probably told traders in the beginning or middle of the day to take a "profitable" position based on the price action leading up to the "unexpected" drop and lost money but now blame China for the losses they incurred. But THEY (the trader) is the problem to believe that data is indicative of the future, especially if that data is 30 minutes old. Resistance/support on the daily is an illusion!
 
I'll agree on the keeping it simple. Price is a very bizarre and complicated topic. It is what fascinates me most about markets, and unfortunately something that is barely taught, and what is taught is done so by people too incompetent to understand it.

The market is no more than an equilibrium seeking mechanism, an impressive one at that, it spends most of its time oscillating around that equilibrium until it becomes unstable and seeks a new equilibrium. Purely anecdotal, but I have seen too many people that can 'sense' those changes on a regular enough basis to find it difficult to simply write off, despite its belief being anathema to mine. When this success is analyzed on a daily granularity, those successes become a bit hard to statistically reconcile. The 'out of a population of xx... over 10 years,' changes significantly when those 10 years turn into a 2,500 day sample size.

I very rarely look at specific markets these days, but sometimes I'll see a chart in something like lumber or cattle, something I know is thin, and I'll look at the chart and laugh at how 'patternistic' it looks, like something out of a damn TA textbook, and I immediately know one big player dominates this market and he's a techie. (that silly fallacy of 1,000,000 different equal forces that make up a market)... You get up to a resistance level, see big selling, make a call or two, find out exactly who you think is on the sell side, is on the sell side, and you know...here we go again...

Now 99.9% of the time, you hand a bullish person a chart, they see bullish, and vice versa, so they're screwed before they start.

...and in case you missed it. These beliefs all stand firmly contradictory to how I would model a market. I was never a directional trader.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top