A message to some day traders.

[Amahrix]

Collective human behavior may be more predictable than realized.

They "appear" to be. They aren't predictable where it matters. Heteroskedasticity.

 

[Amahrix]

Behavioral Economics and Behavioral Finance is a science - it isn’t random. Ask Richard Thaler.

I hope you're being sarcastic. I really do. Thaler doesn't know what risk is.

 

[Amahrix]

Price moves definitely are not purely random. Price is a language, it is the markets only voice. Sometimes if you listen carefully...she whispers..

Look at today's chart of Apple from 6:30am to 11:59am PST. That is 99.9% noise, no signal. You're seeing mosques in the clouds!

 

[tommcginnis]

My opinion is that you are mathematically illiterate OP. This is probably why you can't maintain objectivity with regard to Nassim Taleb's book. Taleb has become some kind of mystic for non quantitative people. Taleb worshippers love saying 'fat tails' but have no clue of the complexity involved in quantitative modeling.

You are using the word 'random' in a naive sense. There are much more sophisticated ideas than those of this author.

Compounded distributions (this causes Kurtosis AKA 'fat tails')
Non-stationary Parameters
Semi-stationary Models

Smart people who actually understand mathematical statistics study how the accuracy of estimates are affected by different characteristics of random processes. They understand the limitations of statistics and other mathematical theories (and what effect violations of assumptions have on the predictive power of models).

Statistics is used to estimate (under a set of assumptions) theorized relationships, distributions of theorized parameters, and theorized distributions of errors that arise when modeling processes where we do not and cannot have complete information about the variability of phenomena.

Every attempt to predict markets will be subject to error, and even estimating the size of the errors is problematic. However, these models have been weaponized and are being used to compete for profits in financial markets.

This was a "Wish I'd Written That" post. Many many great points.

They "appear" to be. They aren't predictable where it matters. Heteroskedasticity.

You REALLY ought to look that word up before you {attempt to} use it again.

Guys... The OP is clearly a troll..

True. True. ... SO true.....

 

[Amahrix]

Guys... The OP is clearly a troll.. I don't know why you guys are even entertaining him/her.. He/she is a cry baby (https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/too-many-traders-are-cry-babies.335185/) and doesn't know what to do with his/her life..

You can tell by the amount of time this person spends on replying to everyone.. Successful people don't waste precious time like that.. How about take that time and use it to study the market..

MarketAddict, do you believe data is randomly constructed or has a precised intended message? Specifically, data that spans few hours/every half hour etc that Day Traders trade on when there TA signals...?

 

[Amahrix]

It's more like "I just got done with the audiobook of Fooled By Randomness and it explains why I am so bad at trading". Audiobook, because OP is illiterate based on his typing style.

His attitude fits firmly in the "holier than thou" attitudes of people who religiously quote Sagan, Degrasse Tyson, etc. He probably weighs 400 lbs, smells of moldy fries, and makes fun of people because they read the bible.

His IQ seems insanely high. Reminds me of another guy...ah yes - perhaps this guy and @lentus would get along just fine.

1. I don't do audiobooks.
2. I am skinny-fat
3. I don't believe in IQ.

 

[MKTrader]

It is not working for you doesn't mean it will not work for someone else...

And we have zero evidence that it's working for you.

 

[Amahrix]

I disagree with the original post, history is history and therefore useless, last 30mins i consider current not history, and I use that to assume direction or short term S/R.

 

[MKTrader]

It's more like "I just got done with the audiobook of Fooled By Randomness and it explains why I am so bad at trading". Audiobook, because OP is illiterate based on his typing style.

His attitude fits firmly in the "holier than thou" attitudes of people who religiously quote Sagan, Degrasse Tyson, etc. He probably weighs 400 lbs, smells of moldy fries, and makes fun of people because they read the bible.

His IQ seems insanely high. Reminds me of another guy...ah yes - perhaps this guy and @lentus would get along just fine.

I like your post overall, but I don't think the same people generally read Taleb and Degrasse Tyson, who's like the opposite of antifragile...mediocre scientist turned into expert who would go broke if he got deplatformed.

 

[LS1Z28]

Look at today's chart of Apple from 6:30am to 11:59am PST. That is 99.9% noise, no signal.

Look at Roku's chart over the same time frame.