A message to some day traders.

[CharlesS]

WHY do some experienced people get so engaged in the repeated recycling of the view that it's mostly random ?

o bc if they're successful short-term traders, this implies they are just lucky, not skillful ?

o bc if they're successful longer-term traders, this implies they are smarter and more skilled than the short-term traders, both the successful ones and those not so ?

o bc if they're losing, this implies it's not their fault ?

Maybe best not to stir these fires, so smoky, cough-cough ...

 

[Amahrix]

WHY do some experienced people get so engaged in the repeated recycling of the view that it's all random ?

o bc if they're successful short-term traders, this implies they are just lucky, not skillful ?

o bc if they're successful longer-term traders, this implies they are smarter and more skilled than the short-term traders, both the successful ones and those not so ?

o bc if they're losing, this implies it's not their fault ?

Thx for your generalizing post?

1) Experienced people never said it’s “all” random.
2) successful in short term implies more* luck than skill as compared to success in long term
3) if we’re losing its because we don’t know how to survive in an uncertain, unpredictable environment and are not fit enough.

What were you trying to get at?

* = emphasis

Maybe best not to stir these fires, so smoky, cough-cough ...

I put these fires out.

Edit: bro why did you make so many changes after my response, to your original post. Now I gotta answer all over again

 

[Scataphagos]

Address this straw man like you did number 2 guy. Think before you type.

You apparently like to find fault and call names.

Also appears you have nothing constructively to add. (I get enough drivel from my wife... don't need any from you.)

I think I'll just put you ON IGNORE!!

 

[Amahrix]

You apparently like to find fault and call names.

Also appears you have nothing constructively to add. (I get enough drivel from my wife... don't need any from you.)

I think I'll just put you ON IGNORE!!

I like to find fault? Your initial response to this thread was faulty because you put words in my mouth and took everything out of context. What if your wife did this to you, you’d blow a fuse, no? Perhaps you’re stronger than I. Nevertheless, nothing personal bro

 

[Amahrix]

WHY do some experienced people get so engaged in the repeated recycling of the view that it's mostly random ?

o bc if they're successful short-term traders, this implies they are just lucky, not skillful ?

o bc if they're successful longer-term traders, this implies they are smarter and more skilled than the short-term traders, both the successful ones and those not so ?

o bc if they're losing, this implies it's not their fault ?

Maybe best not to stir these fires, so smoky, cough-cough ...

1) I don’t know
2) you can’t filter if it was skill or luck in short term... only as you increase frequency over time and maintain success, then you can begin attributing skill. But luck will always have a factor in success. ALWAYS.
3) what? I’ll speak for myself I am a short term trader with a long term horizon.
4) if we are losing it’s because we don’t know how to survive in the environment.

 

[speedo]

Quite a few of us have had "luck" for a number of years, I hope it doesn't run out. Of course we spent years developing luck before it appeared on the scene. But that's how a lot of luck is, it sneaks up on the dedicated and diligent.

 

[Amahrix]

Quite a few of us have had "luck" for a number of years, I hope it doesn't run out. Of course we spent years developing luck before it appeared on the scene.

By passers: I’d like to add a footnote that I never said it’s “all” luck.

Speedo, do you day trade? Do you close out your positions daily? Do you use data to predict future price movement/direction and rely on TA indicators for these day trades? Basically a traditional day trader? Then you better attribute more luck to your earnings than skill because that has pseudoscience written all over it.

That is who this thread is addressing.

You’re led to believe, by the market, and it’s behavior, that you’re predicting price movement and achieving success at it because of “skill” at charting or interpreting data and predicting future price movement. But markets are... unpredictable.

No more humility is exercised by anyone these days in the markets huh? Perhaps a sign of times

 

[piezoe]

Market behavior is collective human being behavior. It is unpredictable, j

This mat be wrong. This may be where Peter has a point to make. Collective human behavior may be more predictable than realized. Perhaps there are large market forces that take advantage of this?

Soros has said that when markets are irrational they are more likely to become even more irrational than they are to become less so. And he has made the point that they are nearly always irrational. Or said another way, pricing in markets is nearly always wrong.* If he is correct -- I personally am convinced he is -- then is his observation a consequence of predictable, aggregate, human behavior.

________________________________
*The common, but worthless, tautology that "The Market is always right." is intentionally being overlooked here.

 

[speedo]

By passers: I’d like to add a footnote that I never said it’s “all” luck.

Speedo, do you day trade? Do you close out your positions daily? Do you use data to predict future price movement/direction and rely on TA indicators for these day trades? Basically a traditional day trader? Then you better attribute more luck to your earnings than skill because that has pseudoscience written all over it.

That is who this thread is addressing.

You’re led to believe, by the market, and it’s behavior, that you’re predicting price movement and achieving success at it because of “skill” at charting or interpreting data and predicting future price movement. But markets are... unpredictable.

No more humility is exercised by anyone these days in the markets huh? Perhaps a sign of times

Day trading only, no over night holds. Strictly trade from my tri time frame tick charts with defined signals and rules. I have three MA's which help with slope geography and signal areas along with a momentum oscillator which gives me momentum dynamics across my time frames and figure into my filters.

 

[Wheezooo]

Price moves definitely are not purely random. Price is a language, it is the markets only voice. Sometimes if you listen carefully...she whispers..