A message to some day traders.

In fact, with a large enough group and a long enough time-span, it is very predictable.
I know this bro. And I’ve said this 15 times in the thread. I keep getting strawmanned by idiots who read some TA books and are victims of sunk cost fallacy.

The problem is day traders think they have skill and it’s not skill. Skill doesn’t exist, if it does it’s neglibible. It’s 99% random. Their P&L is random. They think they’re predicting future short term price trends from past data but they’re getting fooled by the Randomness that persists in daily charts. That’s it for now.
 
I believe if your strategy entails looking into the past for patterns and apply to future... and the past is defined as anything from 1 minute ago, to say, 1 year. Your success to-date is a result of luck disguised and perceived as nonluck(what we call, skills) and, more generally, randomness disguised and perceived as non-randomness (what we call, determinism).

Assuming market movements on a 1 minute, 5 minute, 3 day, 1 year chart are random. You're strategy is based on predicting randomness, but that's the thing... you cannot predict something that is random. Why? BECAUSE IT IS RANDOM

HOW CAN YOU SERIOUSLY TAKE A TRADING STRATEGY THAT DERIVES ITS INFORMATION FROM THE PAST TO PREDICT THE FUTURE, ESPECIALLY IF THAT DATA IS LESS THAN 1 YEAR AGO AND Y'ALL DO TRADES BASED AROUND 5 MINUTE MOVEMENT.... YOU'RE FOOLING YOURSELF!!!

You're a LUCKY FOOL. You'll be a net loser in the long run.

I highly suggest you read Fooled by Randomness by Nassim Taleb before placing another trade, I actually think its free online on his website, in fact.

In my opinion, even looking into 5 years worth of data and deriving a trend/pattern is hocus pocus. You become a victim of too many fallacies beginning with narrative. How do you really know you really know what you're looking at.

How are you guys not scared of losing your money? But it's deserved, because you're a fool.

P.S. If you believe the past is not random and can predict patterns from the past and apply to the future.... please realize that there is literally no consistent winner of predictions over a large period of time. It is bound that some people among the sample will win money for a long time and appear that they're skilled, but they're not, they're fooled by randomness. Wake up...

You understand what I mean...unless you really don't want to, for whatever reasons.

You're not scoring points...

1. Claiming "anyone who makes money trading is just lucky"

2. Traders are "stoopid fools"

Got news for you. While much of the market's action is random, some of it isn't as random as you think. Learn that and trade for profit.
 
ERRORS are heteroskedastic. Markets are markets.




"Holy Cow! What a maroon!"


And people behave heteroskedastically. They error. And markets are people. People error. Errors are heteroskedastic. Humans behave heteroskedastically. The data derives from human interaction. F*****ckkkkkkkkkkkkkk
 
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