A message to some day traders.

[TheBigShort]

So short term is random and long term is predictable? Even Nassim Taleb would be disappointed in you. It's quite clear, that your investment horizon is long term and you have tried your hand at day trading with no success.

When we get a bear market, I am sure you will be saying the long term charts are random to.
You need to wake up and realize you suck at trading, end of discussion.

 

[Amahrix]

So short term is random and long term is predictable? Even Nassim Taleb would be disappointed in you. It's quite clear, that your investment horizon is long term and you have tried your hand at day trading with no success.

When we get a bear market, I am sure you will be saying the long term charts are random to.
You need to wake up and realize you suck at trading, end of discussion.

Goshhhhhh these straw mans tonight, I’m
So damn tired of them. Makes things boring because It’s like an exit on a highway that I have to take to get you back on track and I gotta slow myself down.

1 day chart contains 99.999999% noise
1 year chart contains, say 50% noise 50% signal

If you want to access information, you’ll have better *chance* doing so looking at some signal rather than NONE.

Nice theory about my trading strat. You’re right I’m a broke block. Now shut up
About ME and get back to the TOPIC which you unfollowed 4 pages ago.(truly am
Happy you’re here tho. It’s 4:36am and I’m the only one up)

Serious note: there are innumerable trading strategies, I trade short term derivatives but I do not fool myself into my trades with Randomness, I used to tho. I just make a shit ton of bets with risk of ruin hedged and aim to survive long enough to collect. I don’t need to tell you the replacement strategy to this hoax that is day trading with technical analysis

Edit: If you needed to strawman me to get yourself out of the truth bombs you could've just asked, i would've made a separate post for you to make you feel better about yourself, next time just ask. i'm charitable.

And as far as Nassim goes, he is not inventor of these ideas, he popularized them against the backdrop of finance but they've existed for centuries. People who are honest with themselves understand the very moment they're.... honest with themselves. wth

 

[Amahrix]

So short term is random and long term is predictable? Even Nassim Taleb would be disappointed in you. It's quite clear, that your investment horizon is long term and you have tried your hand at day trading with no success.

When we get a bear market, I am sure you will be saying the long term charts are random to.
You need to wake up and realize you suck at trading, end of discussion.

I trade daily, but don't day trade.

I have a long term investment horizon but I place short-term trades.

It's like a highway, but I give myself exits every 25-30 miles.

Also who voted to give you the liberty of ending the discussion, how insecure are you 1-10?

 

[ElCubano]

Yes, trading is absolute waste of time and money to 99% of people and it's also bad to our health. Giving up is sometimes wise choice.
However, as a hobby, it's better than Casino I think......

And one can catch a nice long run out of pure luck.

 

[tomorton]

IMPORTANT

@tomorton @TheBigShort @themickey @tommcginnis @soulfire and others

“Construct a population of 10,000 fictional investment managers […]. Assume that they each have a perfectly fair game; each one has a 50% probability of making $10,000 at the end of the year, and a 50% probability of losing $10,000. Let us introduce an additional restriction; once a manager has a single bad year, he is thrown out of the sample. […]

Toss a coin; heads and the manager will make $10,000 over the year, tails and he will lose $10,000. We run it for the first year. At the end of the year, we expect 5,000 managers to be up $10,000 each, and 5,000 to be down $10,000. Now we run the game a second year. Again, we can expect 2,500 managers to be up two years in a row; another year, 1,250; a fourth one, 625; a fifth, 313.

We have now, simply in a fair game, 313 managers who made money for five years in a row. Out of pure luck.

Meanwhile if we throw one of these successful traders into the real world we would get very interesting and helpful comments on his remarkable style, his incisive mind, and the influences that helped him achieve such success. Some analysts may attribute his achievement to precise elements among his childhood experiences. His biographer will dwell on the wonderful role models provided by his parents; we would be supplied with black-and-white pictures in the middle of the book of a great mind in the making.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb

Interesting scenario that says quite a bit about market commentators but nothing about private retail trading.

 

[tomorton]

IMPORTANT

@tomorton @TheBigShort @themickey @tommcginnis @soulfire and others

“Construct a population of 10,000 fictional investment managers […]. Assume that they each have a perfectly fair game; each one has a 50% probability of making $10,000 at the end of the year, and a 50% probability of losing $10,000. Let us introduce an additional restriction; once a manager has a single bad year, he is thrown out of the sample. […]

Toss a coin; heads and the manager will make $10,000 over the year, tails and he will lose $10,000. We run it for the first year. At the end of the year, we expect 5,000 managers to be up $10,000 each, and 5,000 to be down $10,000. Now we run the game a second year. Again, we can expect 2,500 managers to be up two years in a row; another year, 1,250; a fourth one, 625; a fifth, 313.

We have now, simply in a fair game, 313 managers who made money for five years in a row. Out of pure luck.

Meanwhile if we throw one of these successful traders into the real world we would get very interesting and helpful comments on his remarkable style, his incisive mind, and the influences that helped him achieve such success. Some analysts may attribute his achievement to precise elements among his childhood experiences. His biographer will dwell on the wonderful role models provided by his parents; we would be supplied with black-and-white pictures in the middle of the book of a great mind in the making.” — Nassim Nicholas Taleb

PS: Are you by any chance Nassim Nicholas Taleb?

You come across well educated but also somewhat jaded as if obstructed in your life ambitions, and you very definitely write as didactically as he does - another reason why I have hated reading his (your?) work and would avoid reading any more of it on any subject. Plus its simplistic, negative and repetitive.

 

[Amahrix]

Interesting scenario that says quite a bit about market commentators but nothing about private retail trading.

I’m confused by this. This can retail trading too. Grab all retail day traders, put them in a room, and run the simulation.

 

[Amahrix]

PS: Are you by any chance Nassim Nicholas Taleb?

You come across well educated but also somewhat jaded as if obstructed in your life ambitions, and you very definitely write as didactically as he does - another reason why I have hated reading his (your?) work and would avoid reading any more of it on any subject. Plus its simplistic, negative and repetitive.

What an honor.
And no, I’m not Nassim. Nassim wouldn’t hide behind a nickname. I do. :/ I’m insecure, paranoid, and I don’t have f*ck-you money (yet?).

Edit: I am jaded as if instructed by life ambitions, deep at the core. I really am. I like your post. Call me out more, I’d like to learn about myself, sincerely.

 

[tomorton]

I’m confused by this. This can retail trading too. Grab all retail day traders, put them in a room, and run the simulation.

But its says nothing about trading, it talks about people's reactions to success in trading.

In addition to which, I had the idea that fund managers most of all in the world want to be about par with the majority of other fund managers. This is based on the premise that if one of them significantly out-performs his peers, he must have taken significantly greater risks to do so.

 

[Amahrix]

But its says nothing about trading, it talks about people's reactions to success in trading.

In addition to which, I had the idea that fund managers most of all in the world want to be about par with the majority of other fund managers. This is based on the premise that if one of them significantly out-performs his peers, he must have taken significantly greater risks to do so.

Did you not read the first 3 paragraphs?

It highlights the fact that given a fair population size, with fair chances for everybody, with the same starting point, and same probabilities, you’ll have, as in that example, 313 traders/managers outperforming for 5 years based on pure luck...

Don’t make it more complicated than it needs to be