False. Keep ignoring my question tho! Good luck & good night. I know you'll never have the guts to answer.. think.. Sunk-Cost Fallacy.
A message to some day traders.
- Thread starter Amahrix
- Start date
And you will never answer my counter-question. So we are at an impasse. Enjoy the Floyd, that was a freebie. Next one will cost ya'.
I know you're an idiot or just dyslexic... Here was my answer to your post that I've copied and pasted and please allow me to highlight where it was that I answered your question...
"""
When I say that a person that is risking ruin and/or trading with a negative EV strategy (basically same thing as ruin) is to be considered lucky.. he is to be considered lucky because he has luckily survived long enough to experience said gains. He will shortly be ruined. Once ruined, he will reflect and think about how lucky he was back when he had those gains and reflect on where he may have went wrong... like lottery ticket winners are lucky enough to win, blow the load, and look back in regret and reflect how lucky he once was.
The answer to your question is no, that is chance. Luck is still involved, such strategy may have random moments of extreme gains (positive black swans whether via put options on S&P or call options on a cancer biotech etc).
There is a difference between luck and chance; hence why we have 2 different words to describe 2 different things in the English language. They're related but slightly different.
The person knows he must take chances that will be positive or negative but will have the portfolio increase in value over time. This fact is embedded into the strategy, bad luck would be thinking he is protected against ruin or has a positive EV strategy and still getting ruined.
Now, kindly, please answer my question before commenting further.
"""
So @Overnight ... what's your answer.
If someone is risking ruin, and/or trading with negative EV(which is the same as ruin..), are they lucky when they experience gains whilst on their path to financial ruin?
.... annndddddd he runs off; Good luck & good bye @Overnight
This is a prime example of Sunk Cost Fallacy.
&
1. He can't answer no because it'll signal his stupidity.
2. He can't answer yes (publicly) because he is too committed to believing I'm wrong, when I am not. He is avoiding at all costs.
In trading lingo.... he's married to his position. Yikes
This is a prime example of Sunk Cost Fallacy.
&
1. He can't answer no because it'll signal his stupidity.
2. He can't answer yes (publicly) because he is too committed to believing I'm wrong, when I am not. He is avoiding at all costs.
In trading lingo.... he's married to his position. Yikes
No. Just as someone who is experiencing losses while they are on their path to financial success is unlucky.
It is not randomness, it is skill. You are comparing this to gambling. The two are different.
I answered you, sir. I was busy somewhere else while you were waiting. I'm sorry I could not get back to you sooner. (Guys, you know what is coming, lol!)
annnddddd false.
Someone who has a positive EV and risk of ruin hedged is taking chances but eventually, the more chances he takes, the average becomes positive (as expected)
You're confusing luck and chance.
Good luck and good bye.
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I'd like to add my two cents worth. Identifying patterns is not about making future predictions. No one has a crystal ball. They are patterns because they repeat themselves and it becomes about behavior and probabilities! Probabilities can become self fulfilling in nature and include random variables; different levels of support. As an individual trader looking in you make an assessment on market sentiment, looking for signs of confirmation. It's merely a tool providing context so you can make a trading decision. Once you are in a trade you are no longer a trader, you are a Risk/Money manager regardless of patterns or time frame... So what does it really matter... Regarding time frames well, I don't know anyone who daytrades while looking at charts going back 5 years. I think everyone here understands the relationship between strategy and time frames. However, as a well informed trader it would be prudent to know the general macro, mid and micro view analysis from the last tick in the market, the previous daily close and all the way thru the last decade... Any trader can identify with what I am saying I believe.
The first person to solve the Rubik's cube was Erno Rubik. When he was prototyping it, he stated it took him about 3 months to solve it. This was 45yrs ago.
Since then pattern recognition algorithms have reduced the time to solve this popular puzzle.
Same with day trading, one either invests the time and uses deduction to figure it out or they don't. The OP hasn't figured it out and can only comment from someone outside looking in. From his pov, he is speaking the truth and nothing will change his mind in that is has fossilized from induction.
There are many in this forum whom are profitable intraday trading. One just has to exercise their discernment to figure out whom they might be.
Since then pattern recognition algorithms have reduced the time to solve this popular puzzle.
Same with day trading, one either invests the time and uses deduction to figure it out or they don't. The OP hasn't figured it out and can only comment from someone outside looking in. From his pov, he is speaking the truth and nothing will change his mind in that is has fossilized from induction.
There are many in this forum whom are profitable intraday trading. One just has to exercise their discernment to figure out whom they might be.