This isn’t an “anti day trading” thread.
A message to some day traders.
- Thread starter Amahrix
- Start date
Yea, I understand that. But for us to look into a chart and extrapolate future movements/events/activity is arrogance at its finest. It contains incomplete information. It’s random in this sense.
The turkey and the butcher. Butcher is higher dimension and more knowledgable than the turkey.
Turkey, looking back at its path, would never suspect that tomorrow will be thanksgiving day, he is unaware. He has no reason to believe that tomorrow will be any different than the past.
The butcher knows well ahead of time when he will kill the turkey.
The turkey looking back at its chart, has no idea that his life will “spontaneously“ end tomorrow. No data in his life will have predicted the exact date/time of his demise.
See what I’m saying? It was random to the turkey, not to the butcher.
What is truly arrogant is to deny the fact that random systems are constantly being explored in our world with mathematical and statistical models. It’s true for financial data and it’s true for meteorological data.
In fact you’d be hard pressed to find a field of study where models aren’t being applied to explore random systems. One of the best examples of that is Brownian Motion. What’s a more random system than the movement of particles suspended in still water under a microscope slide?
Traders, like meteorologists, operate in a world of probabilities. We can explore the likely behavior of random systems under different conditions.
And charting technical studies are mathematical models. Now, we can certainly argue the relative effectiveness of standard technical indicators - that’s fair game.
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"Heteroskedastic" apparently came up on Amrix' Word-Of-The-Day list (or it was on the vacabulary list for that week's stat class), and he used it incorrectly half-a-dozen ways by stuffing it into sentences where it didn't belong. My "Your statement is heteroskedastic" is in-kind payback in response to his inanity of "Randomness is incomplete information."
I wish I could find a brain sponge to wipe such a statement out of my skull.
If there was a Welcome sign upon entering the mythical kingdom of trading I suggest it should have the following included after the word welcome ... all those certain of anything, and all those who quote others who are certain of anything (most cases the same suspects), all those who look down on others and shallowly resort to name calling, all those who proclaim they have found the path and that all others who choose a different path are wrooooong. About covers it.
edit: I should have added that those welcome are those above who will contribute to the winners earnings with their ignorant beliefs.
edit: I should have added that those welcome are those above who will contribute to the winners earnings with their ignorant beliefs.
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Truth bomb. If you require certainty trading is the LAST place to find it. If you require “certainty” then look for a mid level unionized job working for the US Federal Government.
Sorry, I since edited it to reflect the full meaning on what I posted.
ROFL"Heteroskedastic" apparently came up on Amrix' Word-Of-The-Day list (or it was on the vacabulary list for that week's stat class), and he used it incorrectly half-a-dozen ways by stuffing it into sentences where it didn't belong. My "Your statement is heteroskedastic" is in-kind payback in response to his inanity of "Randomness is incomplete information."
I wish I could find a brain sponge to wipe such a statement out of my skull.
You mention that you "have to get thru it", this assumes one survived it. In 2008, the black swan killed the weak. You need to hedge risk of ruin day 1 in any strategy before deploying. Otherwise, everything is luck because your bank account is exposed to ruin. It's luck because the risk of ruin's impact dwarfs any gain realized. Veryy lucky.
These are not black swan events. A plane or car crash is a possibility that everyone entertains in their head and hopes for not to happen when boarding onto a plane or a car. By definition, this isn't a black swan event. They're clearly observing & recognizing the possibility.
False.