A Mechanical Swing Trading System

Quote from tradermaji:

Long Buy& Hold
Starting Capital $1,000,000.00 $1,000,000.00
Ending Capital $1,500,419.46 $1,035,420.85
Net Profit $500,419.46 $35,420.85
Net Profit % 50.04% 3.54%
Annualized Gain % 10.72% 0.88%
Exposure 26.21% 99.94%

Number of Trades 1,202 28
Avg Profit/Loss $416.32 $1,265.03
Avg Profit/Loss % 0.71% 3.42%
Avg Bars Held 4.56 1,002.00

Winning Trades 1,035 9
Winning % 86.11% 32.14%
I can see it would be tempting for you to trade it, given the 86% win percentage, but I believe you need to generate more profit on your trades.
Gross Profit $1,665,510.96 $231,599.35
Avg Profit $1,609.19 $25,733.26
Avg Profit % 2.73% 71.85%
Avg Bars Held 3.56 1,002.00
Max Consecutive 56 N/A

Losing Trades 167 19
Losing % 13.89% 67.86%
Gross Loss ($1,165,091.51) ($196,178.50)
Avg Loss ($6,976.60) ($10,325.18)
Avg Loss % -11.81% -28.99%
Avg Bars Held 10.71 1,002.00
Max Consecutive 6 N/A

Max Drawdown ($143,801.75) ($1,013,600.06)
Max Drawdown % -11.33% -63.02%
Max Drawdown Date 10/7/2008 11/20/2008

Profit Factor 1.43 1.18 Yeah, see, here's where I think you're going to run into problems later on. When you start, the premise is that you double the drawdown and cut the APR in half. That's generally what you can expect going forward. If we did that, your PF would be about 1.1, and after commissions I think you see where I'm headed.
Recovery Factor 3.48 0.03
Payoff Ratio 0.23 2.48
Sharpe Ratio 1.6 0.18
Pessimistic Rate of Return 1.29 0.64
Equity Drop Ratio 0.13 6.1


Trying to edit and format for better reading.
 
@bwolisnsky

what makes you think he is interested in any strategy
or script that you provide ?
why do you have to say he still has a lot to learn about
wealthlab ? do you feel superior or have something to proof?
the guy is simply trying to keep up a journal here.
is it because you recognize the strategy that you wish
to share his code ? i find it unapropiate
 
Quote from flyingdutchmen:

@bwolisnsky

the guy is simply trying to keep up a journal here,
what makes you think he is interested in any strategy
that you provide ?
why do you have to say he still has a lot to learn about
wealthlab ?
what is the reason behind your posting and interupting
his journal,
is it because you recognize the strategy that you wish
to share his code ? i find it unapropiate

It's really just that I've seen hundreds of variants of dip buying systems, and none of them ever beat SuperBands. His average profit of 2.73% and average loss of 11% doesn't work. Not to mention I don't think I ever considered a system with less than 20% APR in my life. I'm just trying to help him out, and on wealth-lab.com, people know me, and any person that's spent anytime researching, already has the system.

The thing I will say to his credit, even though I don't know how long his backtest is for (as it appears to be short), is it appears quite tradeable, which is an edge over an instiutional level script like Superbands.

His system is the typical drop the stop, high win percent system. To really work we need much greater profits on the winners, and about half as much on the losers.

I think you might want to consider messing around with the newest indicator next month. It's the linear regression xtend function that I've found to be invaluable in my system development, tradermaj. I also think you should visit my thread at http://elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=167686 to really get a feel for what a good system looks like in WL. You'll find my systems on the first page as you have presented here.
 
let surpose you are right on some or all of your statements,
those are your personal views what you are looking for
in a strategy and still does not give you the
right to bump in and insult his wealth lab knowledge
because you find yourself a "known" person on a forum
called wealthlab.
this tread isnt about you or your systems nor is it a bet
about what system is best and who owns it but a journal
the guy is trying to start after 2 year absence

Quote from bwolinsky:
I think you might want to...
I also think you should ...
You'll find my systems...
 
Quote from flyingdutchmen:

let surpose you are right on some or all of your statements,
those are your personal views what you are looking for
in a strategy and still does not give you the
right to bump in and insult his wealth lab knowledge
because you find yourself a "known" person on a forum
called wealthlab.
this tread isnt about you or your systems but a journal
the guy is trying to start after 4 year absence

To the OP. Put bwolisnsky on ignore. According to him, there are no better systems than his. He won't help you develop your own approach, just try and force his BS down your throat.

Keep you the good work developing YOU OWN ideas.

pneuma
 
Quote from pneuma:

To the OP. Put bwolisnsky on ignore. According to him, there are no better systems than his. He won't help you develop your own approach, just try and force his BS down your throat.

Keep you the good work developing YOU OWN ideas.

pneuma

He'll get my pm. I wished him luck, and said his script has potential.
 
Quote from flyingdutchmen:

let surpose you are right on some or all of your statements,
those are your personal views what you are looking for
in a strategy and still does not give you the
right to bump in and insult his wealth lab knowledge
because you find yourself a "known" person on a forum
called wealthlab.
this tread isnt about you or your systems nor is it a bet
about what system is best and who owns it but a journal
the guy is trying to start after 2 year absence

He uses WL. Right there he has an advantage over 99.9% of users on this site. WL helped me get to where I am, and I believe it will help him, too. That's all I'm saying. There's not really any debate over which system is better, because I already know the answer. His backtests remind me so much of what I went through over 4 years ago experimenting with trading system development. He's got the first step down, now he just has to modify and tweak until the results come out with higher risk adjusted returns. That'll be reason enough to follow him, just to see if he makes those mods that turn a mediocre script into one to keep the rest of your life.

And I'll say no more.
 
a system isnt better than the trader who uses it no matter
how great the hypothetical results look like, as a trader you
should be aware of this fact.
dont get me wrong i am not trying to come at you nor am i
trying to keep you away from here, critism is good and
wanted hence the reason for a forum, but it makes a difference if you come here and say

1. His backtests remind me so much of what I went through
and i like to help

or

2.i can asure you there's far greater systems out there, and you should know by now. At least you have a system to show, but you still have a lot to learn about Wealth Lab.

see the difference ?
especially this part sound offensive
you should know by now

i suprose you dont even know each other ?

the OP isnt even looking for any help, he is simply keeping
a journal


peace now, back to his journal - looking forward to this next trades
 
Thank you guys... for your suggestions and also to defend me.

Like I stated in the introduction (first post), this is my foray back into trading after a long time. I see that WL has even changed its script.

There maybe a lot of scripts out there, and some of them maybe doing great and much more profitable. However, the reason why I liked the one I posted is because I had developed it in 2004-05 and when I just tested it for fun and giggles... I was surprised... it is still profitable. That walk forward test was really a vote of confidence on my part.

By the way, it is not drop the stop and increase profit system, it uses stop loss as a blowout prevention measure. It actually uses time as a stop loss or to get out of under performing buys. I have a variant to the same system that buys multiple times as the stock dips more and more, and the profits are much more there. However, I feel that I won't have the gall to trade this way.

Thanks again everyone for the lively discussion.
 
Symbol Date ChartScript Order Shares Type Price Signal Name
AAPL 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 200 Limit 163.19 Limit Entry
ALTR 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1700 Limit 17.91 Limit Entry
AMAT 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 2400 Limit 12.65 Limit Entry
ATVI 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 2700 Limit 11.19 Limit Entry
BRCM 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1100 Limit 27.13 Limit Entry
CA 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1500 Limit 19.82 Limit Entry
CMCSA 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 2000 Limit 14.85 Limit Entry
CSCO 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1400 Limit 20.90 Limit Entry
DELL 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 2000 Limit 14.92 Limit Entry
DISH 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1900 Limit 15.46 Limit Entry
EBAY 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1400 Limit 20.89 Limit Entry
FLEX 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 5500 Limit 5.46 Limit Entry
INTC 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1600 Limit 19.12 Limit Entry
MRVL 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 2000 Limit 14.68 Limit Entry
MSFT 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1300 Limit 23.64 Limit Entry
NTAP 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1400 Limit 21.79 Limit Entry
NVDA 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 2200 Limit 13.74 Limit Entry
NWSA 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 3000 Limit 10.09 Limit Entry
ORCL 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1400 Limit 21.08 Limit Entry
QCOM 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 700 Limit 43.92 Limit Entry
RIMM 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 400 Limit 72.65 Limit Entry
SBUX 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1700 Limit 18.05 Limit Entry
SPLS 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1400 Limit 20.85 Limit Entry
STLD 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1900 Limit 15.51 Limit Entry
SYMC 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 2000 Limit 14.71 Limit Entry
XLNX 9/15/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 1500 Limit 20.58 Limit Entry
YHOO 9/14/2009 %H&L-Aggressive Buy 2200 Limit 13.77 Limit Entry
 
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