A gift. Thank me after you get rich.

It has nothing to do with social order. It has to do with a person beginning a thread that says "I know it all and you will be rich from the information I am posting". Top that off with your handle of "brandnewtrader" and you have a pretty comical thread.

Remember one thing. You will lose more money when you THINK you have the market figured out.

edit: well I see you changed the wording of your post so my "social order" comment makes no sense.
 
Quote from BrandNewTrader:

I agree that economic fundamentals don't move the market in the short-term, but they reflect REALITY over the long-term, which eventually must be reflected in the market. The market can't keep going up when there is true fundamental weakness in the economy. Eventually, earnings will reflect the extent of the weakness.
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Economic fundamentals meant little in the last 30 years. This is the world of paper pushers. Wake up and smell the roses. There are simple reasons for what has been going on, for example the 1990s and where that capital came from. USA has been running a deficit for decades, yet the market entered a bull phase during that time. Hmmm. Could it be something regarding the financial system? Something about fiat money, M3, derivatives?

I don't know where the markets going in the next 2-3 months, I don't know what the fed and its buddies have planned. But I DO know that the housing bubble has burst, (reported) inflation is (already high and) creeping into the system, and oil is PROBABLY not going below 50-55 (opec + geopolitics).
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Hahaha.
Who cares if the housing bubble supposedely burst. The homebuilders have long retracted, the RE market has cooled down. Who says it cant start up again? There is more than enough lending capacity to keep the game going.
Oil, lol. Check the derivative market vs the real thing and then decide who it is really run by.


as for our current global financial system - I have good basic knowledge and add to that knowledge on a continual basis. The more I learn about the changes to the system in the past 5 or 6 years, the more it becomes apparent to me that things are getting WORSE.
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Worse how? For whom? There is apparently a ton of money looking for a home. There is A LOT of liquidity. There is a lot more going on than you can even fathom. The US equity market is insignificant to the big picture.
Amaranth, a 5 billion dollar fund blew up and the system did not even hiccup. What does that tell you?

Haha! Inflation is actually at 7-8%! Unemployment is much higher than reported! The government manipulates data to make things look BETTER than they are, and even their manipulated data is beginning to worsen noticeably. What's your point in this regard?
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Real inflation is higher than 7-8%. It also depends on what products you care about. And you actually have to understand what inflation really is, I doubt you do. Once you get the system, you won't be so bearish on any US assets. The smart move for the system is to work the asset angle in order to prevent a sudden inflation burst in real products. And that's exactly what has been going on for 3 decades. Take a look at the financial sector. 95% of it is nothing more than paper pushers. Look at the earnings and market caps of the big B/Ds & IBs. They produce NOTHING, they just push paper around. Yet the financial sector is becoming a predominant part of our economy and equity market. And growing. So why are you bearish again?
The unemployment argument has been carried on for at least 5 years. The job picture barely improved but it does not matter. Corporate earnings went up due to cost cutting and then due to juiced up consumption. Noone truly gives a flying f**k that real job creation has been minimal. Once the middle and lower class actually see real improvement & benefit, the bubble is near the end.

I "think I'm so smart"...?? Is it just assumed that i'm an a$$hole/idiot hybrid now? =)
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No just naive. Look, if the equities crash, you will have a lot more to worry about than feeling proud for being right. There will be total chaos. It makes no sense for it to crash, because the market is only up a little for the past 4 years, once you adjust for dollar depreciation. So let's say you feel the dollar is gonna crash. Then you should be buying up large caps like no other. Do you feel the dollar will stay stable and actually gain? Then the economy will start doing well.

It's all a game of paper pushers and eventually it will end up. But not now, as long as the sheep follow along and continue to have faith in a) the financial system, b) the "democracy" of US and c) the government, the game will keep going. The signs are showing up, but slowly. It's not time yet, but IMO, we're getting to the last chapter.
 
Well BNT, it is a very interesting analysis, and I for one am bearish on the american economy, and in fact, believe that america's golden years are very over.

America will soon (10 - 30 years?) lose it's dominance in the global economy to China, in the mean time, there will be recessions, depressions?, hard times...etc..etc..

change is very difficult, for individuals and cultures, kings and kingdoms alike.

I being American think it's a shame, but such is the way of all empires eventually.

That being said, I don't trade off of any of that.

To trade on a macro econ level, you really need patience. I don't mean in terms of days, or weeks, or months. Usually years, sometimes decades.

If you want to make trades based off of this information, I recommend you read some stuff by James Rogers (co-founder of the quantum fund)

From what I understand, he trades off this type of info, but his time frame for a trade to "work" is years...sometimes decades. And his drawdowns in his very early years were formidable, to say the least.

Days...months... it's too soon.

Remember, there is a HUGE difference between predicting that a 75 year old man will die "someday"...and that he will die in the next 31 days.

One is a qualitative statement that all would agree with, the other...is an outrageous guess, that very few would consider prudent or correct.

And in spite of the economic data, the 75 year old man analogy
is still not completely appropriate, because...well, people have a 100% chance of dying... and nothing is 100% in the markets.

Best of luck to you though,

Greg
 
Quote from alorainc:

America will soon (10 - 30 years?) lose it's dominance in the global economy to China, in the mean time, there will be recessions, depressions?, hard times...etc..etc..

Greg [/B]
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Dont really think so. Americans have the unique ability to create new industries and companies outta nothing. Google, Youtube, etc u guys always seem to be on the better side of the entrepreneurship and RnD table.

Besides ur DoD wont let america become 2nd to china. We've gotten from the american defense department: Nuclear technology, The internet, Computers, stealth technology. These were all DoD creations before they were commercialised (well stealth isnt). I just think that before u write america off as a global power just be patient and wait to see what your DoD unveils. it might just surprise us all.
 
For your amusment i only want to point out one thing not related to anything of real value. It is that there is really no true Nobel Prize in Economics. There never was, and there never will be. The so=called "Nobel Prize in Economics" was created by and funded by egotistical economists, not by Nobel's estate. It is just as if all the NFL quarterbacks got together and decided to fund a "Nobel" prize for quarterbacks dedicated to the memory of Nobel. There is also no Nobel Prize in Mathematics because Nobel's wife had an affair with a math guy, and therefore Nobel specifically excluded marthematics in his will. It's true! I'm not making this up. But at least the math folks have shown enough class not to create there own phoney "Nobel Prize".
 
aus_Spider, what you have attributed to the DoD is actually attributable much more to American Academia. There are two key technological breakthroughs in the 20th century that are largely attributable to the Research within Corporate America: the transistor and the laser, and even these owe much to academia. The other major developments are all direct products of academia, with the exception of the internet, which was a joint venture with academia making the major creative contributions. If you want to have a robust economy you need to fund your Universities and fund them well. The funding for many of the technological advances of the 20th century came from government: NIH, DOD, NASA, NSF, but the brain power and lab work was largely, almost totally, academic. There was in times past some outstanding research done in corporate America. Much, but by no means all, had an academic connection. But on balance the contribution of academic research to technological development exceeds the contributions from all others quarters of the American landscape. Consider, for example, that
the Los Alamos Laboratory is a part of the University of California, that Argonne is University of Chicago, Lawrence Livermore is UC Berkeley, and you will realize that the real backbone of American innovation lies in our Universities. That said, it is very sad to see the demise of our greatest corporate research centers that took place in the late 20th century in the name of the bottom line. This incredibly short sided thinking will haunt us in the 21st century.

Actually, aus_Spider, i had to edit this because the more i thought about it the more ridiculous your attributng technological development to the DoD seemed. I can't think of one single development, though there must be something, that the DoD had anything to do with other than pay the bills. Take the development of nuclear energy for example. None of the principals were DoD, all were academics and many were, or became , pacifists: Currie, Bohr, Einstein, Meitner, Fermi, Oppenheimer, Feinmann, Teller (a notorius hawk). etc. etc. And i could go on endlessly with other examples.
 
Well actually, much of the grant dollars that academia is funded with comes from the DoD with the intent to invent the latest and greatest toys. So in a sense I guess you're both right.
 
I was simply pointing out that DoD signs the big cheques for what initially seems to be a fanciful idea but with the finest minds in academia working on it becomes a reality.

Los Alamos, Lawrence Livermore, Oak Ridge etc all are significantly funded by DoD.

In terms of academia, many of the US's top physicists and notable academics over the past century have all pretty much been imported: Von Braun, Einstein, Bohr, Fermi and many were imported by DoD to serve on DoD projects.

Many of the inventions which you listed would have been impossible without the money chucked at academia by DoD

Academia Provides the research brains, DoD the budget and corporate america the streamlining, marketing and optimization of new inventions. Corporations not good at inventing but very very good at optimizing and imporoving efficiency

I stand corrected on teh word creations though. More like Academic creations funded by DoD money
 
Quote from CutsThrough:

And you're a trite douchebag. My god, the tards on here.
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did you make that statement to be blatently ironic? or are you just such a trite douchebag yourself you don't see it...?
 
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