A gift. Thank me after you get rich.

Then again this is how the governement spent our tax dollars to get the advice of the famous Rand Group...







Quote from laputa:

If you take a look at how the CPI is calculated, you may begin to think that the GDP minus actual inflation is actually negative... Take a look at this article from the SF Fed

http://www.frbsf.org/econrsrch/wklyltr/el97-16.html

IMO the most interesting part lies under the title "Quality change and new goods"... basically it says the BLS makes a comparison of your computer today with computers 10 years ago and adjust the price downwards. Your computer is 100 times faster than 10 years ago, and in BLS's view the price has dropped 100 times...

That's how they keep the inflation number low with huge money supply growth... amazingly wall street seems to take the CPI seriously, maybe it is the sentiment rather than fact that matters...
 
that Fed article about CPI being OVERSTATED was good thanks

whats amazing is how ppl seem ready to bet the farm on minor changes in a single monthly stat of a particular series...
 
Quote from 2cents:

anybody heard from roub'? still bearish?

lemme know... thats a worthwhile contrarian play...

GDP, ISM, Philly Fed, housing fundamentals, deficit and inflation fundamentals ... all deteriorating rapidly. Housing is actually fvcking scary.

Market keeps going up.

Everything is right on schedule =)

lookout 2007
 
Quote from BrandNewTrader:

GDP, ISM, Philly Fed, housing fundamentals, deficit and inflation fundamentals ... all deteriorating rapidly. Housing is actually fvcking scary.

Market keeps going up.

Everything is right on schedule =)

lookout 2007

At what point do you admit you're wrong? What scenario would it take for you to change your view.
 
Quote from Arnie:

At what point do you admit you're wrong? What scenario would it take for you to change your view.

Probably after seeing 25% gains that could have been realized if he just followed the market.
 
Laputa, i think it was during Reagan years that the method of calculating the inflation rate was changed to take quality into account. (Anyone here know for sure? ) This gives a significantly lower figure for inflation and therefore the government saves billions on entitlements that are indexed to inflation. There is also savings from lower TIPS interest (a good reason not to buy TIPS), and to the extent that our creditors are hoodwinked by these lower inflation numbers, we save billions in servicing and financing the national debt. Inflation is welcomed by those with heavy debts, provided their incomes adjust upward with inflation. In the case of the US, however, it is likely that incomes will not keep pace with real inflation, though they might come close to keeping up with the official figure.
 
Door_bomb.gif


I am putting most of my capital towards this trade.


Quote from 2cents:

bump :D
 
the whartoon kid hasn't posted since mid-nov it seems... must have changed his handle again... to PunishedPermabearPuppet or sthg...
 
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