A gift. Thank me after you get rich.

Quote from 2cents:

BNT mate, more seriously, and looking at this past friday's GDP figure that triggered Roubini's latest pronouncement on recession risks in 2007, i know he's not looking at this figure in isolation etc, that there are other figures pointing towards a (desired) slowdown etc...

however this was just an advance chain-weighted REAL gdp figure if your wharton mind sees what i mean...

v.volatile historically, can be revised way up or down next month etc etc... other than strictly intraday, hardly the kind of figure one wld want to base much on, particularly a trading strategy, don't you agree? (plus its not even a bad figure imo, but i am no roubini ;-) )

now i do concur with roub' that stagflation lite is a rather high prob scenario for the next few quarters... but thats just an opinion, mostly reflecting the current lack of visibility as to how bad the coming blow-ups in china's opaque economic system, what pace and economic impact the coming transformations in the energy mkts, pace and credibility of european integration etc etc
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Point well taken. I suppose my only counter is that obviously none of us know what the future has in store, but there are way too many real downside risks to ignore, while on the upside all we have is optimism - and this market optimism will only fuel downside momentum when everyone gets caught with their pants down and runs for the exit.
 
Quote from 2cents:

its more than just a reasonable point... once you've removed 'accomodation' / stimulation required in the wake of the internet bubble burst, 9/11 etc, your back to fine-tuning... therefore u want to provide all the economic actors with a slightly longer horizon than just 1 month, for one, and yes 2 months IS a much longer horizon than 1 as your aware, cause its indicative of a new tuning 'pace' notably, until the mkt eventually recognizes we've reached an 'equilibrium' range as far as all the key variables, and the Fed can go 'stationary' for a while...

one other thing, despite being only one of the factors at play in US interest rate decisions, to an extent the fact that the BoJ (the ECB as well to a lesser extent) is able to continue to raise and at what pace says things about Jpn GDP growth / growth expectations (and world growth potential) AND has a notable impact on worldwide inflation & inflation expectations... watch this space ;-)
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Interesting thing to mention here is that many economists say (based on their models) that the US economy is only feeling the real effects of 3% worth of rate hikes, or a 4% int rate (3% in hikes from a low rate of 1%). This means the economy hasn't felt the other ~1.5%...

asia and europe will be interesting to watch. many say that the world won't react negatively to a us slowdown due to globalization. I (based on the distinguished research of others) think that globalization will worsen the effect on other economies. Look at the relationship between the US and China/Japan. US slowdown leads to Asia slowdown, which leads to Latin america slowdown (raw materials exports to Asia). Europe will be interesting to watch. They've already had minor meltdowns (Iceland, Hungary, etc) that are supposedly indicative of the major weaknesses in their system. A US slowdown would expose these weaknesses I'm afraid.

In general, alot of these emerging economies that have enjoyed record growth over the past 5 years (Brazil, Russia, China) relied on export growth for a large part of their growth/income growth. If there's a global slowdown, the exports will fall off sharply and result in overcapacity...

will be very interesting to see what happens over the next few quarters
 
Quote from BrandNewTrader:

Point well taken. I suppose my only counter is that obviously none of us know what the future has in store, but there are way too many real downside risks to ignore, while on the upside all we have is optimism - and this market optimism will only fuel downside momentum when everyone gets caught with their pants down and runs for the exit.
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agree the US has got some serious socio-economic structural type problems on its hands (not all of them necessarily unique to the US though) and the conclusions of the Kotlikoff report http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&postid=1155252&highlight=kotlikoff#post1155252 wld need to be acted upon presto... and then there is the Middle-East... anybody's guess how this is going to pan out & the impact on the global economy over the next few quarters... but it seems to me that the current bias is rather pessimistic (and that wld already be factored in today's price levels), no?
 
Quote from Batman28:

the site actually looks good, but how much is membership?
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somewhere aroung $5G annual for 3 access logins... and there are premium access levels that cost much more. i'm trying to get my international speculations skills up. if i'm successful i'd consider buying a membership as its the best macro economic/geostrategic resource I've ever seen outside of a large institution.

They'd be happy to explain details to you i'm sure. I spoke to them but may have gotten some details wrong...

right now it's a little rich for my blood...
 
Quote from BrandNewTrader:

Thanks for the advice, but:

I don't want to narrow the timetable. I think the market will trend down for the duration of the (next) year. During this time we may see a crash/severe correction and/or short-term rallies. My goal isn't to trade options in and out of these events. My goal is to put on a long-dated trade now when the puts are cheap and the coming market turmoil hasn't yet been priced into the implied vol.

Erosion? Won't happen until 2007, and by then the options will be coming into the money. These are long-dated options - theta decay increases over time. The more time to expiration, the slower the theta decay.

what is corrosion decay?

Implosion? Well, I am long puts, so my risk is limited. At worst, I will be able to sell most of these off at a loss.

If I make money, it won't be luck. If I lose money, it will be because I made a bad trade. But if I make money, it won't be luck. Give me a fvcking break.

"inflationary rhetoric pressures or a scholar's recessionary/depression expectations"

what are you talking about? i don't think you know... i never said that rhetoric or roubini's predictions would move the market.

i don't think you thought carefully before posting
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I stand corrected. You sir, are right in stating "i don't think you thought carefully before posting"

Options, I no basically nothing about them--I don't employ their use.

Anticipating global market moves long term is part of what I do; it's my niche ,as it were. I starting building positions months ago.

Upon reviewing your plan it appears well conceived and I hope you reap many rewards.
 
Thanks for the gift, but I am already rich. What should I do now? Should I try to lose everything I have so I can gain it all back with your tip of the century?
 
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