A gift. Thank me after you get rich.

Quote from 2cents:

show me the housing figures that support your view of a BUST pal...

as for thoughts, just one: your a pretty good larf :D
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The sad thing is the average person will never see these numbers or be aware that numbers this bad are already out on the national housing market. The below are YoY changes for the month of July, from www.marketwatch.com. Do you know how the "talking heads" spun this one? "confirms the housing slowdown" "more bad news for housing", and my favorite,"This market is a wildcard in the recession debate, and it looks like the worst is behind us." Haha! What a joke!

Economists like Stephen Roach (quoted) and David Rosenberg had this to say: "The only thing 'orderly' out there right now is the guy carrying the stretcher. America's housing bubble finally appears to be bursting."

If you're not familiar, they're chief economists at MS and ML, and wouldn't be saying such bearish statements unless they were SURE. Meaning they have confirmation from the numbers. The housing bust is confirmed as the worst in a decade, and if the numbers get worse it will be the worst in a very, very long time.

All this spin by the media and smart-alec comments from the likes of you don't mean a damn thing when the numbers come out and confirm the bad predictions. You can try to discount their views by calling them "perma-bears", but there are also "perma-bulls" out there, and they're talking right now too. Diff is, the permabears are using facts and historical figures, while the permabulls are using hopes, dreams, and bullshit. My point - Just because permabears are screaming bloody murder, doesn't mean they're wrong and we should ignore them.

The S&P could lose 25% of its value over a 2 week period and people will be calling it a "correction" and "buying opp"... "temporary dislocation" "no way to predict these types of market events"... and so on. Amazing!

The worst housing stats in 11 years. And they're only going to get worse, based on the leading indicators. Hope you have a good "larf" at these numbers too, "pal". :D :D

Year on year housing as of July 2006
Builders’ sentiment -52.2%
New-home sales -21.6%
Purchase-mortgage applications -20.9%
Building permits -20.8%
Housing starts -13.3%
Existing-home sales -11.2%
Existing-home inventories +39.9%
New-home inventories +22.4%
 
Quote from BrandNewTrader:



The worst housing stats in 11 years. And they're only going to get worse, based on the leading indicators. Hope you have a good "larf" at these numbers too, "pal". :D :D

Year on year housing as of July 2006
Builders’ sentiment -52.2%
New-home sales -21.6%
Purchase-mortgage applications -20.9%
Building permits -20.8%
Housing starts -13.3%
Existing-home sales -11.2%
Existing-home inventories +39.9%
New-home inventories +22.4%
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WOW -- where did you get these numbers?
Compared to what?

Here is the score as I see it

Maxpi 2
BNT 3
2CENTS 2

but..........BNT is much more eloquent in his posts.
 
Quote from BrandNewTrader:

The worst housing stats in 11 years. And they're only going to get worse, based on the leading indicators. Hope you have a good "larf" at these numbers too, "pal". :D :D

Year on year housing as of July 2006
Builders’ sentiment -52.2%
New-home sales -21.6%
Purchase-mortgage applications -20.9%
Building permits -20.8%
Housing starts -13.3%
Existing-home sales -11.2%
Existing-home inventories +39.9%
New-home inventories +22.4%
More...
VERY good larf, thks, cause, see, thats what i look at, numbers, and how they are computed, by who, whats a reasonable proxy to crosscheck against, compiled by who, etc etc... and what they MEAAAAN doodsie... remember the 2.5% ADVANCE chain-weighted GDP figure... guess not...

Roach Roub' & co can say whatever they want, i read them, but THATS spin...

now why don't you look at those exact same indicators on a 20 or 30 year chart, correct for demographics, and tell me if you still find that a v.desirable and mild soft landing from a historical peak 2005 housing year can be called a BUST by anybody but a MORON... good luck
 
Quote from 2cents:

...tell me if you still find that a mild soft landing from a historical peak 2005 housing year can be called a BUST by anybody but a MORON... good luck
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Hmm, that would be the same moron that looks at the above figures and calls it a mild soft landing.
 
Quote from 2cents:

VERY good larf, thks, cause, see, thats what i look at, numbers, and how they are computed, by who, whats a reasonable proxy to crosscheck against, compiled by who, etc etc... and what they MEAAAAN doodsie... remember the 2.5% ADVANCE chain-weighted GDP figure... guess not...

Roach Roub' & co can say whatever they want, i read them, but THATS spin...

now why don't you look at those exact same indicators on a 20 or 30 year chart, correct for demographics, and tell me if you still find that a mild soft landing from a historical peak 2005 housing year can be called a BUST by anybody but a MORON... good luck
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ok, so the exponential price appreciation and liquidity in 2-3 years probably outweigh the exponent of population growth during that time, but adjusted for monetary inflation i would assume demand for housing is the relative constant over time. any bubble here is probably defined most by unprecedented lending, runaway money supply and rapid declines in purchasing power. is that typical, is that exogenous? maybe the underlying question is why inflation isn't linear with demographics
 
Quote from wareco:

Hmm, that would be the same moron that looks at the above figures and calls it a mild soft landing.
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really :) then u won't mind checking i'm sure...
 
Quote from Avid_Consumer:

ok, so the exponential price appreciation and liquidity in 2-3 years probably outweigh the exponent of population growth during that time, but adjusted for monetary inflation i would assume demand for housing is more of a constant over time. any bubble here is probably defined most by unprecedented lending, runaway money supply and rapid declines in purchasing power. is that typical, is that exogenous? maybe the real question is why inflation isn't linear with demographics
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take a 2nd look at the figures submitted by BNT cut&paste from Roub', and the "unit of measure" for each, monetary inflation is irrelevant here...

agree with u re unprecedented, even runaway lending though... but as already discussed via PM talk to the Treasury, Office of the Comptroller & Fannie Mae / Freddy Mac on this...

when there are swings in housing demand, as makes sense when rates get back to historical ranges, builders better get the message presto... and yeah, decision-making get stretched from a few days / weeks to a few months, whats the surprise??
 
Quote from wareco:

All those that see a soft landing from here raise your hand
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{yawn} The median price of an existing home rose by just 0.9% in July from a year ago, the smallest year-over-year increase since May 1995, according to the National Association of Realtors. Meanwhile, sales slumped 4.1% from a month earlier to their lowest level in more than two years.

big deal...
 
Quote from 2cents:

take a 2nd look at the figures submitted by BNT cut&paste from Roub', and the "unit of measure" for each, monetary inflation is irrelevant here...

agree with u re unprecedented, even runaway lending though... but as already discussed via PM talk to the Treasury, Office of the Comptroller & Fannie Mae / Freddy Mac on this...

when there are swings in housing demand, as makes sense when rates get back to historical ranges, builders better get the message presto... and yeah, decision-making get stretched from a few days / weeks to a few months, whats the surprise??
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home values basically doubled accross many areas of the country in the last 3-5 years. where are the demographics, economic growth, wage growth, etc to support that? the posted numbers are year-over-year % change. if the prices those %s are based on were indexed against say the DXY index or worse gold as a monetary benchmark, the 'real' appreciation is probably closer to historical. People think they're chasing a strong real estate mkt, but it appears they're really chasing weak fiat, just as in equities
 
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