a beginner's attempt at the pairs

After Italy's credit rating was downgraded ealier today, euro now looks quite bearish...surely euro will be very volunerable to depreciate substantially next week
 
mlawson71 said:
Yes, I was pretty sure. I sat the Friday out.
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Trump was an exception. Usually US appreciates and stock market falls upon the president's speech on fiscal policy on inauguration. But Trump'd said US dollar is too strong. I should have think in his shoes because he would not talk about anything to strengthen US dollar on his inauguration. Never mind, I know how to hold risk-free positions anyway.

At the moment, neither Trump nor Draghi want their currency to appreciate. Trump has declared trade war whereas Draghi is reluctant to see euro strengthening at the time of economy recovery.

I'd worked out expected euro upon last week's ECB's interest rate decision using both inflation and interest rate model. If there was no negative comment by Draghi, EURO was supposed to appreciate. Anyway, after the temporary depreciation to his negative comment, (from the next day), euro started to appreciate to reflect its fundamental value.

There is Draghi's speech next week but I will pay more attention to Turkey's interest rate decision next week. I hope their central bank do not hike their interest rate because their bond is currently rated as close to junky. Most economists expect them to hike interest rate in order to prevent hyperinflation but if they don't change, it will devalue turkish lira substantially.
 
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Trump's message is clear. He wants US dollar to weaken. Only that way, he can prevent strong US dollar and he will be in a better position in the trade war. Whenever there is overbought condition in US dollar, better short it.

I am keen to long GBPUSD when there is news on the results from Supreme court on Brexit on Tuesday.

I am also keen to long turkish lira upon their interest rate decision. Given their current situation, if they don't stop the rising inflation and falling lira, they could face hyperinflation. Only way to slow them down now is raising their interest rate
 
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