I know earlier there were some strong trends...but at the moment , all currencies are clearly going through some random pattern ( congestion) ...better take a shower and might just go to bed ( it's getting midnight in NZ )
a beginner's attempt at the pairs
- Thread starter big mac
- Start date
I don't know what the fundamental value of US pairs now because of a expected change in U.S. Interest rate in December, if anyone can advice please do so... But I am really hesitated to go against US dollar at the moment ( but still I do because I am a high frequency trader, uses both momentum and constrarian strategy) I have seen some guys are talking about new high and new lows in U.S. Pairs, but you can only talk about it when there is no new information. When there is a change in fundamental value, there is no point in talking about it.
It's time to do some research now
It's time to do some research now
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U.S. Dollar is keep strengthening. I will download journals on the impact of interest rate on currency to get the idea of the post announcement effect
Exactly. But I also want to find out the impact of this change in U.S. Stock market as well as bond market too.
Now foreign commercial traders (hedgers including the swap banks, especially the sides that need to meet the obligation) will worry about the currency risk so they will start to buy forward contracts. This is what we have seen last few days after the announcement.
So it will likely to continue until US dollar appreciate to the level that reflects the new fundamental value, which we don't know yet...
From next week, I will definitely focus on more long positions by following hedgers (momentum strategy) but I will still play with short positions by following speculators (aka constrarian strategy).
Any thoughts on this regard, please share.
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Japanese grandparents are expected to buy US Treasury bonds and so are Chinese parents...
What's more? Importers/loanees who need to pay back to meet their current obligation, they will deposit their money in US banks to minimise currency risk and they get interest on the top of it.
Don't even mention the swap banks.
The whole world is now exposed to the systmatic risk.
US dollars will strengthen more this week.
I think 1US dollar=1 EUR. 120 Yen = 1 US dollar. $.69 AU = $1 US dollar
all will happen soon
Buy low US dollar and sell other currencies high
What's more? Importers/loanees who need to pay back to meet their current obligation, they will deposit their money in US banks to minimise currency risk and they get interest on the top of it.
Don't even mention the swap banks.
The whole world is now exposed to the systmatic risk.
US dollars will strengthen more this week.
I think 1US dollar=1 EUR. 120 Yen = 1 US dollar. $.69 AU = $1 US dollar
all will happen soon
Buy low US dollar and sell other currencies high