95% are losers

Handle123 · Apr 23, 2013

I owned a Commodity Brokerage in the ninties, we always tried the hardest to get longer term traders than day traders to open accounts. Cause if someone who was just starting out and was going to day trade, and this was before electronics came out/had to phone in orders, if they started in January, over 90% were gone by June. And I would believe now with easy access and higher comission rates (Big S&P500 was $500 a point back then and cost was $16 to $40), fees are generally higher today in the Emini's but lower in most other markets. Newbies get in/out much faster now, and more often which depletes the account even if they are breakeven on the day.

Good traders either go to deep discounts brokers, lease a seat or buy.

I think the "95%" might actually be a little low, I think the upper 2% are the huge winners whether it is in trading or just about anything done in life. It takes a great deal of hard long hours of work of thinking "outside the bun" to preservere in one's field of study to do well.

Most people work for a living, hate their jobs, have next to nothing for retirement and have to retire in their seventies. I won't label them as failures, but they certainly not the upper 2%ers.

Peternam · Apr 23, 2013

Quote from Handle123:

I owned a Commodity Brokerage in the ninties, we always tried the hardest to get longer term traders than day traders to open accounts. Cause if someone who was just starting out and was going to day trade, and this was before electronics came out/had to phone in orders, if they started in January, over 90% were gone by June. And I would believe now with easy access and higher comission rates (Big S&P500 was $500 a point back then and cost was $16 to $40), fees are generally higher today in the Emini's but lower in most other markets. Newbies get in/out much faster now, and more often which depletes the account even if they are breakeven on the day.

Good traders either go to deep discounts brokers, lease a seat or buy.

I think the "95%" might actually be a little low, I think the upper 2% are the huge winners whether it is in trading or just about anything done in life. It takes a great deal of hard long hours of work of thinking "outside the bun" to preservere in one's field of study to do well.

Most people work for a living, hate their jobs, have next to nothing for retirement and have to retire in their seventies. I won't label them as failures, but they certainly not the upper 2%ers.

This sounds right...

TILT2 · Apr 24, 2013

Quote from oldtime:

just something to think about

haven't updated this since 2010

but back then

15% beat the S&P

of those that did, 50% beat it 3 years in a row

and 5% beat it consistently over 5 years

so if you are one of the ones who beat it 5 years in a row, you can truthfully say, "95% are losers."

If what you said is true, why people start trading in the very beginning? Coz according to what you said, only 5% can still be there after five years.
Assuming what you said is true, if people hear what you said, probably almost no one would start trading any more or the people who are struggling in the market would quit the market instantly. Then who are still trading in the market? 5% trading with each other?
Anothery possibility is that people believe they can be 5% despite the truth that you are telling. Honestly, if I hear what you said several years before I started trading, I wouldn't enter the market.
BTW, nice post.

dbphoenix · Apr 24, 2013

Quote from TILT2:

If what you said is true, why people start trading in the very beginning?

1. Because they think it looks easy.

2. Because they think they're smarter than they are.

3. Because, when they begin to lose, they begin to lie to themselves.

TILT2 · Apr 24, 2013

Quote from dbphoenix:

1. Because they think it looks easy.

2. Because they think they're smarter than they are.

3. Because, when they begin to lose, they begin to lie to themselves.

Because they are greed. That's why they want to play Satan's game(that's what I always call trading).

Redneck · Apr 25, 2013

Quote from oldtime:

95% are losers

OT,

100% of traders are losers

A few simply accept, then manage that fact â better than most

========================

Reading through your subsequent posts in this thread â you appear to correlate losing to failing â which in the normal world would be a fair comparisonâ¦.

However in this (the trading) world â to succeed, one must become adept at losing

Never understood the stigma associated with losing

Anyway;
=========================

Winning trades have never made me money â I've seen that money disappear all too quickly many times overâ¦.

I am paid for managing my losing trades â each and every one of them (which in large part simply equates to me managing me)

Now I am not even remotely suggesting winners are to be ignored either - they must also be managed

But a losing trade will certainly do more damage to my account than any winning trade ever contemplated

=======================

That folks donât make the transition successfully â C'est la vie

I certainly have never held a gun to someoneâs head and made them remain in a losing tradeâ¦ or trade frivolouslyâ¦

And I seriously doubt anyone else has either

But folks certainly do

Isn't life grand (rhetorical of course)

RN

danielc1 · Apr 25, 2013

Quote from Redneck:

OT,

100% of traders are losers

A few simply accept, then manage that fact â better than most

========================

Reading through your subsequent posts in this thread â you appear to correlate losing to failing â which in the normal world would be a fair comparisonâ¦.

However in this (the trading) world â to succeed, one must become adept at losing

Never understood the stigma associated with losing

Anyway;
=========================

Winning trades have never made me money â I've seen that money disappear all too quickly many times overâ¦.

I am paid for managing my losing trades â each and every one of them (which in large part simply equates to me managing me)

Now I am not even remotely suggesting winners are to be ignored either - they must also be managed

But a losing trade will certainly do more damage to my account than any winning trade ever contemplated

=======================

That folks donât make the transition successfully â C'est la vie

I certainly have never held a gun to someoneâs head and made them remain in a losing tradeâ¦ or trade frivolouslyâ¦

And I seriously doubt anyone else has either

But folks certainly do

Isn't life grand (rhetorical of course)

RN

OT,

100% of traders are winners

A few simply accept, then manage that fact â better than most...

bogan22 · Apr 25, 2013

Quote from danielc1:

OT,

100% of traders are winners

A few simply accept, then manage that fact â better than most...

Obvious isn't it..

cheers
Bogan22

Forgot to add, kudos RN, excellent post as usual.

Ripley · Apr 25, 2013

Quote from oldtime:

I've always had a hard time with this anecdotal statistic

95% are losers

it took me a while to get my mind wrapped around it

they are not talking about people like you and me

they are talking about the guys that subscribe to chat rooms

they are talking about the guys that watch late night infomercials and pay for books on real estate

they aren't just talking about 95% of traders

they are talking about 95% of humanity

so yes, 95% lose

that is why they are not traders

99% are losers. As in anything in life that is worthwhile to pursue.

I can further break it down by time and magnitude of the losing, but that would be too complicated for this elementary thread.

oldtime · Apr 25, 2013

Quote from Ripley:

99% are losers. As in anything in life that is worthwhile to pursue.

I can further break it down by time and magnitude of the losing, but that would be too complicated for this elementary thread.

ok, so at least we know 1% are