95% are losers

[galvinlee888]

Quote from QuantWizard:

Stocks are not zero-sum game...

For value or long term investor (like Warren Buffett), the answer is yes, stock growth in long term.

You have to admit most of the traders here are extreme short term traders and they are mainly trade future, options, bucket shops and etc which is virtually a zero sum games.

 

[galvinlee888]

Quote from TILT2:

why would i make other traders rich£¿ if i lose money in the market£¬i would rather spend the money somewhereelse£¬ like buying a big house instead ofgiving somebody through the market. that's common sense.

you got it, then don't trade, go back to your 9-5 works.

You ever ask why people start new business even >90% of the new business fail ? How about those 10% that did success and they hire the idiot with tiny paid for 9-5 job (and they can fire those 9-5 idiots any time) ?

 

[kut2k2]

Quote from Zr1Trader:


Some people keep trading even through losses .

It's for the experience.

For the experience of not learning to cut their losses short?

Are these the same idiots who hold their hands over burning candles because it feels so good when they stop?

 

[Eight]

Quote from TILT2:

Because they are greed. That's why they want to play Satan's game(that's what I always call trading).

King Solomon traded horses and chariots. He did ok..

 

[TILT2]

Quote from galvinlee888:
you got it, then don't trade, go back to your 9-5 works.
You ever ask why people start new business even >90% of the new business fail ? How about those 10% that did success and they hire the idiot with tiny paid for 9-5 job (and they can fire those 9-5 idiots any time) ?

i dont like ur fucking tone. i merely remind people if you dont trade wellthen stop trading. in ur view£¬its like u have to trade. dont know if u r successful in trading£¬even through u r a good trader£¬doesnt mean you r successful as a person. i just dont like ur fucking tone.

 

[QuantWizard]

Quote from galvinlee888:

For value or long term investor (like Warren Buffett), the answer is yes, stock growth in long term.

You have to admit most of the traders here are extreme short term traders and they are mainly trade future, options, bucket shops and etc which is virtually a zero sum games.

True, for instance futures _are_ a zero-sum game since it's a contract between two parties where one's gain is the other's loss.

 

[Mtrader]

Quote from QuantWizard:

True, for instance futures _are_ a zero-sum game since it's a contract between two parties where one's gain is the other's loss.

It doesn't matter of it is a zero sum game because it can be part of a bigger strategy.

Let me explain:
I have a portfolio of stocks and I want to protect myself against a decline of the market. So I sell futures to protect my portfolio.
If the markets go up, I will loose (more or less) what I win in my portfolio and vice versa. So my total profits stay stable.
But when I see my futures deal alone, I will loose what my counterparty will win and vice versa. So this deal is a zero sum game.
Overall:
If I win 1000$ in my portfolio I will losse 1000$ in my futures, and my counterparty will win 1000$.
So total picture: I have no profit or loss and my counterparty has 1000$ profit. So this is not a zero sum game.

 

[trader198]

in future trading, a zero-sum game?
no, when you get in, you pay ticket fee to your brokers,

so already lose some

when you get out, you pay the fee again, you lose more.

trading is a losing game from this perpective.

just like you want to open a store, you need pay monthly retenal fee to setup your store, then pay your employess salary/wage, pay your untility bills, pay..... those are out of pocket fees.

then you may say any business is a losing game.

trading is just like any business. you need time, hard work, intelligence, talent, capital, knowledge, vision, experience,... to succeed.


most people misunderstand trading. thinking it is an easy thing. lured into it by looking at those charts, found " if I buy here, and I make how much money", "if I sell here, how much I make", they thought making money in the market is fast, easy... they do not realize trading needs business brain, knolwgde, talents, experience...

all those are illusions.

movie stars make money easy? yes, it is easy.

sport stars make money easy? yes, it is easy.

ordniary people think "why joe/marylin can be movie stars, why not me?" they see the money, but they did not see "do I have the talent, do I have the capital, do I have the emotial strength to deal with roll-caster ride of the market......"

god does not make everyone equal, just make you and me unique.

95% is non-sense. if you flip over those 410k accounts, most folks do pretty well. I belive 95% those folks are winners. they donot day trade.

people lose is becuase they seek fast money, jump in and out, too frequently, do very risky trading activities.

in the past I day trade future, particularly sweet crude, I rearely make a point in a day trade. acutally it is so easier for me to make 3points even 5 points in a trade. I just use the most powerful strategy: buy low, buy big dip, then hold.

market actually moves no-where, slightly higher over the time. that is the market personality.

 

[galvinlee888]

Quote from trader198:

in future trading, a zero-sum game?
no, when you get in, you pay ticket fee to your brokers,

so already lose some

when you get out, you pay the fee again, you lose more.

trading is a losing game from this perpective.

just like you want to open a store, you need pay monthly retenal fee to setup your store, then pay your employess salary/wage, pay your untility bills, pay..... those are out of pocket fees.

then you may say any business is a losing game.

trading is just like any business. you need time, hard work, intelligence, talent, capital, knowledge, vision, experience,... to succeed.


most people misunderstand trading. thinking it is an easy thing. lured into it by looking at those charts, found " if I buy here, and I make how much money", "if I sell here, how much I make", they thought making money in the market is fast, easy... they do not realize trading needs business brain, knolwgde, talents, experience...

all those are illusions.

movie stars make money easy? yes, it is easy.

sport stars make money easy? yes, it is easy.

ordniary people think "why joe/marylin can be movie stars, why not me?" they see the money, but they did not see "do I have the talent, do I have the capital, do I have the emotial strength to deal with roll-caster ride of the market......"

god does not make everyone equal, just make you and me unique.

95% is non-sense. if you flip over those 410k accounts, most folks do pretty well. I belive 95% those folks are winners. they donot day trade.

people lose is becuase they seek fast money, jump in and out, too frequently, do very risky trading activities.

in the past I day trade future, particularly sweet crude, I rearely make a point in a day trade. acutally it is so easier for me to make 3points even 5 points in a trade. I just use the most powerful strategy: buy low, buy big dip, then hold.

market actually moves no-where, slightly higher over the time. that is the market personality.

True !

Most people don't realise that short term day trading are negative expectancy game, you already loss when you get into the position (slippage + commissions), and those newbie always been told if you have a "strong" edge than you can compensate the slippage & commissions. The reality is in retail traders world, non of the edge that retail traders have are strong enough to compensate those "business costs" (from my experience, the institutional have edge that not accessible from retail but I can't tell you further more as it is confidential). Forget your TA, FA, chart, pattern, wave, trend following, indicators, seminar, education, system and all those BS, there are not any better than flipping coin with 50% chance --> 50% - commission - slippage = negative expectancy outcome.


The number 1 job of your brokers and MM is to market and "assure" you that you have (or at least you can discover) a strong edge that can compensate the commissions + slippage, such that you will continue to pay for their salary.

 

[TILT2]

Quote from galvinlee888:

True !

Most people don't realise that short term day trading are negative expectancy game, you already loss when you get into the position (slippage + commissions), and those newbie always been told if you have a "strong" edge than you can compensate the slippage & commissions. The reality is in retail traders world, non of the edge that retail traders have are strong enough to compensate those "business costs" (from my experience, the institutional have edge that not accessible from retail but I can't tell you further more as it is confidential). Forget your TA, FA, chart, pattern, wave, trend following, indicators, seminar, education, system and all those BS, there are not any better than flipping coin with 50% chance --> 50% - commission - slippage = negative expectancy outcome.


The number 1 job of your brokers and MM is to market and "assure" you that you have (or at least you can discover) a strong edge that can compensate the commissions + slippage, such that you will continue to pay for their salary.

True! I agree with you.