Hope this doesn't shake things up re: MaxSpan.
What if it is signaled then gets to and touches the 10 point profit exit but only 17 contracts are printed. Then the market moves opposite the Max Span setup.
What does the backtest assume then? What does that Cajun guy report to the track record?
Sure he has his fill report that he emails me, but what if his broker is in collusion just to make it look good, hmmmm?
Just a couple of quick comments. I have seen Caj take every Max trade. His account has been growing with it. I do not trade it most of the time because I believe I can out trade it most of the time --- similar feelings to the other ET member who stated the same thing. It is a tool and a measure of temporary directional movement, that's all.
I do wish I had the discipline to follow anything like Max Span in the beginning of my trading career, when I lost consistently and kept changing methodologies constantly. I would gladly have taken a system that made me $1.00 per day.
Another comment about back testing. It has its place. For me it is just another tool, not a reason to celebrate or condemn.
If something looks reasonable in back test, what I do is take the signals with a small position. If I did not have Cajun as a guinea pig, and I truly wanted to judge Max Span in the real world what I would do is take every signal for 30 trading days with 3 contracts and see how the results compare with the back test.
The worst case scenario is that it loses every day for 30 days. That comes to $18,000. If $18,000 will make me kill myself then probably I should not be trading stock index futures on any system, any guru's calls, any charting technique, or any gut feeling.
As far as audited statements go, I even treat those with skepticism. I still remember Enron and World Com.
Alex L. Wasilewski
Co-Founder & Head Trader
Trades That Work
www.puretick.com
1-877-GOLONG1 (1-877-465-6641)