9:35AM, May 05, Who Is Shorting NDX

Quote from MAESTRO:

Ok, I could have missed the point. But isn't it true that the longer the time frame the less chances one has to be right?
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That was my point. And the lesser chance of being right equates to a greater chance of being wrong. Does not the greater chance of being wrong suggest a negative correlation?
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

That was my point. And the lesser chance of being right equates to a greater chance of being wrong. Does not the greater chance of being wrong suggest a negative correlation?
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No, it suggests less of the correlation (not negative). 98% and minus 98% correlation is the same thing. It simply means that the two events are inversely correlated. However, 98% and 2% correlations are totally different in terms of their codependency.
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

Oh, no. My screen is beginning to fade. It seems you will now have 251 scree
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:D :D Don't be modest! I would love to have all of my screens as bright as yours! I was and I will be your fan! Its other not very bright lights in ET chandelier I would like to replace with more efficient florescent bulbs!
 
Quote from polpolik:

13 NQ points and he jizzed himself.
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A long path starts with one step, and death with a thousand cuts starts with one cut. Did you nurse your first injury/cut?
 
Quote from Wrongside:

After years of study and extensive backtesting Riskfreeguessing came up with the quant program called "SWAG" Most people do not realize it is actually an acronym for Simple Wild Ass Guess.
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So how is it going? R you blind to colours. You should change your name to REDside (which is the same as wrongside for trading purposes, and is in tune with the colours in your account.
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

No meaningful correlation? I would have thought that, the more specific the price and time prediction, the less likely that the market would be to accommodate such specificity. Therefore, I would have expected somewhat of a negative correlation.
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That is accurate if your sample if the overall population of traders. That is a reason why the majority should be losers.

Corrollary of your conclusion: if you find a subgroup of traders who violate your conclusion, what do you think you should do or conclude about those traders?
 
Quote from Thunderdog:

I think it goes beyond the notion of joint probability. Even first order specificity in an environment of uncertainty is likely to be met with an unhappy outcome. The joint probabilities only make it more so. I think that the further out you go with a specific time/price prediction, the more likely that you are to be wrong, all else being equal.
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The probability for price to be greater than a certain price during a period of time (0,T) is always equal to twice the probability of the price greater than a certain value at time T.

Therefore, being specific about time (for the same above constraint about price) is exactly twice harder. This could be a statistical test to distinguish between weat and ... It is the time that filters those who predict things right based on chance with the help of time, and those who may not.

Do you now understand why I use time, and why I post calls with time stamps. Because it is harder with the speficy time and price, and the probs are slimmer if someone were to do it right in a series of calls.

10 calls (with time element) in a row, and the difference between chance and no chance becomes 1000 to 1. (2^10).

I made more than 10 calls in this trading forums with time element attached. I was wrong one time with a loss of 6 ticks on NDX.
 
riskfree

Do you realize that if you would buy and add to your position each time you called a top you would have made more money with much less effort.

Take a look at your post history and you might learn something.
 
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