9.1 Million Barrel Build in Crude Oil. Wow. Get The Hell Out.
- Thread starter ByLoSellHi
- Start date
Just like lambs going to the slaughter house are frolicking happily. They're also not worried one bit.
If you were trading you'd ALWAYS be worried and wondering if your position is on the right side of the trade. But then again, we're in a 'full blown recession' as you say, so who needs stops and trading rules on short positions????
well some progress spanish.
if you have good predictive instincts then thats great- stick with it.
listening to others 'opinions' will get you killed i agree, but listening to winners mentalities, trade management etc will get you far.
i use pure price action, only pivots and certain levels along with some game theory and subconcious pattern recognition. i used to be a pro poker player before trading and i am very good at predicting turning points and fake outs ahead of time.
when i first started i listened to bad advice like 'dont trade the open', hold winners, cut losers etc. its bs for the most part. there are so many different ways to trade you just should go with what you are good at and suits you. if something works, and you have a large sample size of evidence, then go with it.
the reason i was worried is that you seem to be swayed more by news than price, which is generally a losing proposition in trading. its a recipe for lots of smallish winners then one wipout trade further down the line since you think you are smarter than the market and it 'must' come back to your way of thinking.
but hey if you got talent and a system who am i to argue, just dont hold losers because the fundamentals mean it 'must' turn around etc.
Good luck
PS: for your and buylows benifit an example of a swing trade i made before the fact is shown here in a rare post by me
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=125674&perpage=6&pagenumber=5
if you have good predictive instincts then thats great- stick with it.
listening to others 'opinions' will get you killed i agree, but listening to winners mentalities, trade management etc will get you far.
i use pure price action, only pivots and certain levels along with some game theory and subconcious pattern recognition. i used to be a pro poker player before trading and i am very good at predicting turning points and fake outs ahead of time.
when i first started i listened to bad advice like 'dont trade the open', hold winners, cut losers etc. its bs for the most part. there are so many different ways to trade you just should go with what you are good at and suits you. if something works, and you have a large sample size of evidence, then go with it.
the reason i was worried is that you seem to be swayed more by news than price, which is generally a losing proposition in trading. its a recipe for lots of smallish winners then one wipout trade further down the line since you think you are smarter than the market and it 'must' come back to your way of thinking.
but hey if you got talent and a system who am i to argue, just dont hold losers because the fundamentals mean it 'must' turn around etc.
Good luck
PS: for your and buylows benifit an example of a swing trade i made before the fact is shown here in a rare post by me
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=125674&perpage=6&pagenumber=5
Quote from BlackBison:
well some progress spanish.
if you have good predictive instincts then thats great- stick with it.
listening to others 'opinions' will get you killed i agree, but listening to winners mentalities, trade management etc will get you far.
i use pure price action, only pivots and certain levels along with some game theory and subconcious pattern recognition. i used to be a pro poker player before trading and i am very good at predicting turning points and fake outs ahead of time.
when i first started i listened to bad advice like 'dont trade the open', hold winners, cut losers etc. its bs for the most part. there are so many different ways to trade you just should go with what you are good at and suits you. if something works, and you have a large sample size of evidence, then go with it.
the reason i was worried is that you seem to be swayed more by news than price, which is generally a losing proposition in trading. its a recipe for lots of smallish winners then one wipout trade further down the line since you think you are smarter than the market and it 'must' come back to your way of thinking.
but hey if you got talent and a system who am i to argue, just dont hold losers because the fundamentals mean it 'must' turn around etc.
Good luck
PS: for your and buylows benifit an example of a swing trade i made before the fact is shown here in a rare post by me
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=125674&perpage=6&pagenumber=5
Aloha mate, cheers for all the good advice and support..
(Nice trade btw)
I guess it may have come across that i use news as my main indicator when trading, but thats incorrect though.
I do use news, since in oil, well the market is controlled n swayed on a daily/hourly basis by the news for that day.
However i only use news to findout what the daily sway/trend will be.
And so i then get a rough idea how high/low the V will go up or down, and so where i should enter trades.
I only check the news for the oil once in the morning beof ei start trading, then maybe 5/6x throughout the day, just to see if any updates/interest.
The 1 and only actual indicator i use for trading is S&R levels, and all off this chart:
http://md2.it-finance.com/MDLight/i...D.CL.Month2.IP&timezoneOffset=0&webSiteId=igi
**** all those nonsensical charts covered in all those complicated scientific style indicators and forumlas!! LOL
The only chart you need to use when trading is the plain basic free IG chart.
I just check the '1hour graph' (zoom out till max), and can then clearly see where all the major and minor S&R levels will be for the day.
And then while trading i just switch between the '1minute graph', to watch the market moving slowly and to see where the relevant S&R levels are for this day, and then use the tick-by-tick to watch the market moving faster, and to time my enteries and exits perfectly to the top and bottom of spikes.
I only trade in the direction of the longer term solid trend, regardless of what the daily sway is!
S that way i never get caught out and *****, like so many people who were buying oil on friday afternoon would have.
But i read the news to find out what the daily sway will be, so i know how high the market will likely rise to, before falling, and how far the fall will be.
(This is combined with S&R levels, and also the dollar each day/hour).
Oh btw for everyone whos trading oil tomorrow:
It will rise in the morning after the overnight rise due to the hurricane in carribean.
It's peak is very likely to be between 116.50 - 117 area, maybe a quick jolt up to 117.80, but not sustainable.
And then it will slide back down to around the 115/114.45 area, or if dollar weakens after its overnight gain there will be a close above 115.20 probably.
It will rise in the morning after the overnight rise due to the hurricane in carribean.
It's peak is very likely to be between 116.50 - 117 area, maybe a quick jolt up to 117.80, but not sustainable.
And then it will slide back down to around the 115/114.45 area, or if dollar weakens after its overnight gain there will be a close above 115.20 probably.
Quote from spanish89:
Oh btw for everyone whos trading oil tomorrow:
It will rise in the morning after the overnight rise due to the hurricane in carribean.
It's peak is very likely to be between 116.50 - 117 area, maybe a quick jolt up to 117.80, but not sustainable.
And then it will slide back down to around the 115/114.45 area, or if dollar weakens after its overnight gain there will be a close above 115.20 probably.
GRRRRRRR IM NEVER EVER EVER GOING TO GO TO BED LATE EVER AGAIN!!!!!!!!!!!
I think you can safely go back to bed now. Impressive recovery this morning.
Man... sorry to hear that, seriously. I've found in my trading that when I'm not in sync with the market moves, for better or worse, I will almost always regret trading that day or sometimes that week.
Maybe you should knock off early this week and come back fresh next week. I think the trade will only get more choppy as we head into Labor Day weekend.
Maybe you should knock off early this week and come back fresh next week. I think the trade will only get more choppy as we head into Labor Day weekend.