9.1 Million Barrel Build in Crude Oil. Wow. Get The Hell Out.

Quote from Landis82:

Yes, and you would currently be UP +$8.00 on taking the other side of being "obvious".
So look who is the FOOL now? :D

By the way, this little motto came from one of the greatest traders on the Street . . .
Paul Tudor Jones.
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Yes, but that would have been based on luck! lol

+ you would have needed to use a stoploss of over 400ticks, which most people never like to use.


And just because that happened lastime, look back at all the previous inventory numbers, and then think how long you would have lasted if you hadn't done the 'obvious' trade... :D
 
Great thread, excellent entertainment. Whenever I read 'GET THE HELL OUT' in the thread titles I know it will always be popcorn time.
 
Actually, it wouldn't have been luck. If you're a smart trader, you would have waited and see how the trades go after a big news release like that. When things settled down, all you need to see is that price wasn't going down despite "such a huge drawdown".

Also, you could have picked up clues when the Euro, Ag futures, and gold were bouncing up.

Again, if it's that easy to trade = read news then trade, every guy on wall street would be millionaires. But then again, someone smarter is taking the opposite of your trade.


Quote from spanish89:

Yes, but that would have been based on luck! lol

+ you would have needed to use a stoploss of over 400ticks, which most people never like to use.


And just because that happened lastime, look back at all the previous inventory numbers, and then think how long you would have lasted if you hadn't done the 'obvious' trade... :D
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Quote from BlackBison:

you say why shouuld you trust the opinion of a random guy of a forum-
unfortunately what he gave was not opinion. your analysis is opinion, based on YOUR interpretation of news, economics etc.

he is using technicals and price action reads based on previous market patterns. the market often does what it wants, why do you think economists are such bad traders.

trust me on this, you can often tell the winners on these boards right away from the things they say.

people like buylow, stocktrader etc are the losers of trading. look back at some of their horrendous opinions the past 6 months. no historical comparisons or market observations just pure opinion based on emotion and reacting to old news that they think is new.

people like whiz, daal, makloda are the winners. you would be wise to observe them and the way they move with market tendencies not their own opinions of what they think or hope it will do.

at the moment it is clear which camp you fall into. its not to late to try and move over to the winners side ^^

PS: I do not post often on these boards, and i am just trying to help you out you seem a nice guy. I wish you the best of luck

PPS: just because you have had a winning streak does not mean you are invincible. there is alot more variance in trading than people let on.
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Aloha mate, sorry for getting kinda rude and stuff before,
no hard feelings?? :)

I do value and understand that there are lots people wo give out good advice, its just i have an extremely bad record from when i listened to what other people said from t2w, and an extremely good record from when i started only listening to myself.

But i wil try and expand my mind and be open and listen to people on here who give advice.

Becaue its true, that even though i have been very sucessful in forecasting and profiting based on 'futures', when oil was just rising and then sliding,
i lack any actual knowlege and skill about past market patterns that may affect the trend also.



What do you think the trend will be tomorrow and over the next week mate??

You think 120 will become support and we will see uptrending and ranging?
Or just fluctuation and pullback?


Thanks for the tips btw. :)
 
BlackBison, you are the fool.

Oil has moved from 147 down to 112 in 4 weeks.

It's up now on Fay and Russia/Georgia, but give it a little time before f**king making such an asinine statement because I will visit your comment again over the time frame I originally set - by years end. Do you really think I'm concerned by big one or two day moves up or down given the time frame I have? I own Tesoro at 15.37, my friend, and I have the luxury of holding it in perpetuity. Want to bet the odds I'll make money on this buy?


Do you think truly brilliant economists (truly) like Stiglitz are full of shit when they say half the world economies face recession? Are they full of shit like Shiller and Roubini who made dire calls in the last year? You think oil is going to buck that trend, my obtuse friend, and miraculously head higher anyways, when it's already spiked 1500% in 10 years, and during a time of more robust economic growth?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=awmpn8rBsIHM&refer=home

You'd f**king think that you had actually made some brilliant calls on here or something.

But as polpolik said, I'm sure you've booked a cool million+ this year trading on your mythical style.

Yes, I've made calls. Publicly. Sometimes on economic fundamental trends. I've been wrong and I've been right.

I'm not blown out. I'm still ahead, and I won't relent that ground, because it's not possible the way I'm positioned.

So, what calls have you made? Have you been brave enough to venture some calls publicly, before the fact?

If so, let's hear them.

Post them or STFU.
 
Your wrong, It takes far more money than 4 or 5bucks to get out of the ground, even in Saudi Land.

A Well that is drilled to 17000 deepth, with Good Sand, looking to pull oil out of the ground, say 500 barrels a day can cost 5 million or so. That is a small Well.

Now, with todays prices, it makes sense for drilling world wide as the basic cost of "DRILLING" has risen less than the Profit from oil. Oil is up over 700% since 2000.

So, to say it takes 4 to 5 dollars per barrel to cover cost of "DRILLING" in Saudi land is wrong..

You have the Rig cost. You have the cost in "CASING" (STEEL PIPE) you have the drill bits cost, (THEY BURN OUT, not one BIT will drill the full deepth), you have the transportation cost. Labor Coast etc, for NEW WELLS.

So, even in Saudi land it cost money to Find and Get oil.

Now maintance on wells that are pumping cost, (GOOGLE IT), are not cheap.

Just because gas is less than a dollar in Saudi Land does not mean that production cost is cheaper. They just have a "SHIT" load of Oil pumpn to off set the cost.

Drill in America....DRILL DRILL DRILL baby!

Oil saved the UK from going bankrupt in 1970's (1979), when the North Sea started pump'n, it gave the BANKRUPT NATION a surpless Balance sheet. It wasn't Margret Thatcher that saved the Queen, it was OIL!!!!!

SO FUCKING DRILL !!!!
 
Given that one or two large specs got taken out in this recent move in Crude, I'm not surprised of the retracement to $112.00 over the last month or so.

Once the Paralympics are finished in Beijing ( Sept. 17th ), and they get through their National Holiday period that starts October 1st and lasts for 2 weeks, it will be most interesting to see how crude trades.

Here in North America, I must say that I find it downright scary that the Mexican Govt. continues to suck PEMEX dry. At this current rate of production, they will run out of reserves in 8 years. They frown on foreigners coming in to help them explore for oil, and improve their energy E&P infra-structure. As a result, their fields peaked in 2005.

Guess who is in America's Top Three for sourcing crude oil?

1.) Canada
2.) Saudi Arabia
3.) Mexico

Not good.
 
Landis, the issue with Mexico is real, and I believe it is true.

I know that their major field is basically at 40% of its former peak production.

But we would be remiss to forget that other supply is coming online, there has been true demand destruction (with some what I would deem credible analysts making a great case that this trend will continue), more deposits are being sought and found (e.g. Brazil; Arctic deposits, etc.) and that technology for extracting ground oil, shale oil, and tar sand oil is improving at a rapid clip.

ERM, I also agree with increased drilling. I hate to agree with anything the bloviate Kudlow repeats ad nauseam, but I'm not going to disagree with him out of personal dislike.

There was a claim by some Canadian tar sand oil exec today that they can be profitable at even $35/barrel oil prices given new and very efficient extraction methods (I don't know if that's factually true, but that's what he claimed).
 
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