64 Million vacant apartments in China!!!!!

wilburbear · Jan 25, 2012

There's also social unrest.

Chinese authorities killed civilian Xue Jinbo for challenging the government's right to confiscate private land (WTF!). This caused the latest and most serious uprising in China.

It's a bit of a touchy matter because China says Xue Jinbo died of a heart attack while in custody. Fair enough, just return the body to the family. China can't return the body to the family - an early view of the body showed broken thumbs, kneecaps, and blows to the head.

XueJinbo.com anyone?

traderharley · Jan 25, 2012

Quote from achilles28:

What are the repatriation controls like? Specifically, for foreigners holding Yuan denominated accounts that want to buy USD or EURO?

Generally, Chinese government wants to increase Yuan by 3-5% yearly to some point, and as Yuan increases, their purchase price of Raw Material will be cheaper, but they don't want to increase too fast, then all the Dollars will leave, they still prefer USD than EURO.

wilburbear · Jan 25, 2012

Quote from traderharley:

No. But I have several friends working for banks.

Can you send email into China? How?

A news report stated the email system is a closed loop, and is occasionally purged so that you lose all your contacts!

achilles28 · Jan 25, 2012

Quote from traderharley:

Generally, Chinese government wants to increase Yuan by 3-5% yearly to some point, and as Yuan increases, their purchase price of Raw Material will be cheaper, but they don't want to increase too fast, then all the Dollars will leave, they still prefer USD than EURO.

Sure, but how about for private accounts? Say a US citizen with a bank account in Shanghai, who wants to buy US dollars with ~7 million Yuan?

traderharley · Jan 25, 2012

Quote from atticus:

The average income in Beijing is a bit under $500/month. The provincial cities are much lower. HTF are they going to fill these condos on $6k/year gross income? The ratio of income to value is absurd. The average condo is $250k.

First, the old generation already had their home when they were cheap. For the new generation, when they purchase their first home, they can not afford it, who pays the down payment or cash purchase? Their parents. They only have ONE child for every family, when the boy and girl get married, both parents (4 people) will put out money to help them. Culture is different.
Second, who owns multiple properties? Rich people and government officers, they have the money to play.

traderharley · Jan 25, 2012

Quote from wilburbear:

Can you send email into China? How?

A news report stated the email system is a closed loop, and is occasionally purged so that you lose all your contacts!

That's is more of propagation, as long as you have no intention to fight the government, then everything is fine. Google wanted to back to China, but they have to do like Yahoo, listen to government. I am pretty sure they do screen the emails.

atticus · Jan 25, 2012

Quote from traderharley:

First, the old generation already had their home when they were cheap. For the new generation, when they purchase their first home, they can not afford it, who pays the down payment or cash purchase? Their parents. They only have ONE child for every family, when the boy and girl get married, both parents (4 people) will put out money to help them. Culture is different.
Second, who owns multiple properties? Rich people and government officers, they have the money to play.

You have no idea what you're talking about. The average cash/equivalent savings of the senior class (best demo) is something like $18,000. WTF is floating the cash purchase?

These apartments have all been built in the last 10 years. There is no natural market for these buildings.

The occupants can't afford to pay the "house property tax" under the BLTB.

traderharley · Jan 25, 2012

Quote from achilles28:

Sure, but how about for private accounts? Say a US citizen with a bank account in Shanghai, who wants to buy US dollars with ~7 million Yuan?

It really depends. If you have extra cash, and just waiting for Chinese Yuan to increase, 3-5% a year, you may still hold the Yuan. but, if you want to invest, you may want to use that money in US market, sometimes, market can move 2% a day, why hold Chinese currency for 3% a year?

achilles28 · Jan 25, 2012

Quote from traderharley:

It really depends. If you have extra cash, and just waiting for Chinese Yuan to increase, 3-5% a year, you may still hold the Yuan. but, if you want to invest, you may want to use that money in US market, sometimes, market can move 2% a day, why hold Chinese currency for 3% a year?

You don't get me. I'm asking how easy it is for a US Citizen to buy US Dollars in China, with Chinese Yuan?

For example, say a US businessman owns a factory in China. He deposits 10 million Yuan into a Chinese Bank in Shanghai. Next, the American businessman wants to buy US Dollars with that 10 million Yuan and transfer that money to Citibank, in America. How difficult is that?

traderharley · Jan 25, 2012

Quote from wilburbear:

There's also social unrest.

Chinese authorities killed civilian Xue Jinbo for challenging the government's right to confiscate private land (WTF!).

XueJinbo.com anyone?

Sorry no political discussion. We only talk about economic situation to increase our bet probability to win.