64 Million vacant apartments in China!!!!!

Quote from traderharley:



Your post shows that you don't really know about China, they copy everything from US, and even the police station, they use the word "POLICE" instead of Chinese word, they are crazy, but they won't be crazy to do the same mistake as US did.
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What kind of nonsense is this? Does the USA have a monopoly on the word "police" ? No other country is allowed to call their security forces POLICE?
 
I believe the house price will down, but perhaps not a crisis.
Because in China, the local government get biggest profit from house market.
 
Quote from achilles28:

You're right. It's more complicated than 'XX' million unit overhang, or whatever.

Mortgage standards (100% down, 50% down etc), available terms, average income, home prices, cultural proclivity to take on debt. It's all relevant. If what you say is true, there's no bubble in China. My understanding is Chinese shun debt. IOW, the consumer credit revolution has not yet begun. Given that, once the PRC and Goldman get Chinese consumers hooked on debt, there is no bubble. A 50K property on 6K income is doable. 100K property on 12K combined household income is doable.
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The market is very different with US market, it is controlled by government. If you monitored Chinese currency, you would notice that Chinese YEN had 10 limit down in a row in last December, because Goldman and others were shorting YEN, pulled Dollar out of China, but Chinese government only took couple days to recover all the 10 limit downs. Any reasonable speculation on Chinese market is doomed to fail, because it is not a free market.
 
Quote from traderharley:

The market is very different with US market, it is controlled by government. If you monitored Chinese currency, you would notice that Chinese YEN had 10 limit down in a row in last December, because Goldman and others were shorting YEN, pulled Dollar out of China, but Chinese government only took couple days to recover all the 10 limit downs. Any reasonable speculation on Chinese market is doomed to fail, because it is not a free market.
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Are you in China, now?
 
Quote from traderharley:

No. But I have several friends working for banks.
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What are the repatriation controls like? Specifically, for foreigners holding Yuan denominated accounts that want to buy USD or EURO?
 
Quote from traderharley:

I don't think so. Chinese government controls the housing market. More than half of the people buy apartments by cash, 100% cash pays off, and banks force 50% down payment for the second apartment, and most Chinese only buy what they can afford, that's why they have high percentage of savings. Most of people owns multiple properties are the government officers, rich people. US banks gave loans to all the people who wanted it, even if they have no penny savings, their banks only offer people who can guarantee to pay back. Their housing price will go down, but will not be a crash like us.

Your post shows that you don't really know about China, they copy everything from US, and even the police station, they use the word "POLICE" instead of Chinese word, they are crazy, but they won't be crazy to do the same mistake as US did.
More...

The average income in Beijing is a bit under $500/month. The provincial cities are much lower. HTF are they going to fill these condos on $6k/year gross income? The ratio of income to value is absurd. The average condo is $250k.
 
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