50% ?

Quote from oldtime:

well, some of us don't need money because we guessed right

but that was after many years of understanding the odds and managing money

I don't know what kind of short cut you are looking for, but you are not going to find it

find a virtual craps game or roulette table or coin toss program and work out your 50/50 mm

then start guessing

for instance, you bet heads and it came up tails, now what do you do?
You should already know that before you ever place another bet
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So you say it is luck,

Intresting,

Lets say that the coin toss was a bit different,
Lets say that every time you win you make 50% and every time you loose you make 40%

What would the out come be then for you having the luck you have.
Is that enough of an edge to beat the force that takes our money in a 50 50 ?

Ill do you one better and remove the fees.

Do YOU win over a long period of TIME ? Or is it possible we have taken the most basic of ideas for granted ?

Work it out let me know, use a real coin please.
 
Ill get back to the above challenge,

Lets assume that the math behind this Sim is right. What do you notice.
The first thing I notice is that lowering or highering the initial deposit makes a huge difference !

One would assume it is linear, It is not you can at times make more with 10 k then you can with 50 k !

The site is related to options, maybe I am missing something.
can any one make sense of this ? Is it possible that if some one loosing was simply trading a different amount of money they could be winners ?
 
In physics the idea of probability is calculated differently.

This is due to the nature of quantum physics,

The interference caused by waves makes the typical bell curve have extream waves going back and forth, this curve can be enveloped in a typical bell curve. but it is very different . "half" the points are given a value of 0 !

How does this relate to the market ? how does it not is the question.

I used to look at charts zoomed out the result was volume bars were threads and a "mess". While I was adjusting, I did notice that at one point I saw a bell curve when I looked at every second bar. inbetween each bar were lower bars.

It kind of reminded me of the idea of squaring probability.

Probably nothing, but who knows, good to note while I wait for my data set.
 
The numbers are low but its a mini account so multiply the profits by 10.

Also keep in mind there still is 2 trades open one of which is in the red currently.

This strategy works by pushing risk to the last trade. Im not sure how the loss got in there but it was my first time, generally all trades should be profitable and the last one is 50 50 or maybe a 33-77 based on the above mentioned numbers that were given.

I really hope some on can explain me where the 33% came from

Ill post the end results of the last trade ONLY IF THEY ARE POSITIVE.
This means that these profits and loses cant be put towards my total profit and losses.
 

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Here are the end results, admittedly I may have gotten a bit lucky but Im not too sure about that yet. Also I think I may have thought of a way to hedge the risk of the last trade.

The whole system seems like it is high risk so far I do not think I can grow the account fast enough to cover the risk of the bad trade that will soon come

Either way it is no longer about finding bottoms or tops It is more general which may be harder

Remember x 10 the p and l has it is a .1 contract

The -8$ trade bugs me, still not sure where it came from.

'i call it the hershey kiss !
 

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actually what are you trying to prove with this outcome / these results/? might be my reading comprehension sucks in which case I apologize :)
 
Its my writing, I am sure there is no doubt there.

Its simply to see if I can avoid the doom that is sure to come. The results compared to my previous trades are almost inverse !

The goal is to stay positive at all costs.
 
Quote from traitor786:


Its simply to see if I can avoid the doom that is sure to come.
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yes, this much I can understand, but by doing what? can you be more specific as to what you are trying to implement ? i just don't understand how you arrived at these results..
again, i'm counting on your patience here :)
Quote from traitor786:



The goal is to stay positive at all costs.
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sure, we all don't want to drown :)
thanks
 
I was wondering Where the 33.33% came from if we have a 1:2 risk to reward ratio. Below..



Vinc, I did not find anything special here. What I have learnt so far tells me that we have little control over profits if we play fare.

But we can delay risk, Ill try to find the thread where I wrote about it.

In general, what we have here is similar to a martingale system. They are all the same; delay risk till reality comes back and hits you in the face lol.

Here, instead, I used the market itself to determine my max lose.
It should fail in trending markets, but maybe If I can handle the risk I can change to a higher time frame until price looks like its always trending.


It may help if price allows you measure.

The last trade of 50 could of easily ended up the other way. I'm not sure if I would of had the patience. Luckily I fell asleep lol.




Quote from asap:

the math is very simple.

if the profit target is 100 and the stop loss 50, then the chances of the PT being hit are about half of the SL being hit.

hence, the expectancy of such trading system would be as follows:

33,33%p * 100 PT - 66,66%p * 50p SL == 0 - commissions and slippage.


in trading there's no free lunch.

the edge has to be derived from somewhere else, say arbitrage, inside info, industry knowledge, or in the vast majority of cases mere luck.

in sum, life's a biatch and trading is the mother of them all.
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:D
 
OK so here is an update of my P and L included here is some stuff here from my last P and L. This is the total. Trades based on the this strategy.

Keep in mind they are 1/10 th of a contract. so multiply the profit by 10

I was or for a while but i am back. I put in some trades last week i think and then the long weekend came along and i did not exit them. I held on too long and the position was bigger then was supposed to be as I developed a bias's
 

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