50% ?

Possible Issue with the strategy:

A heads up that my next upload will include a trade that is not part of the strategy. For this reason you will actually see 2 closes of a short on gold. I can lie and say it is the lower entry. but i will be honest and say that mentally I would of thought to do it AFTER (at the lower price)

It should NOT be included in the P and L of this strategy. I may draw a line or something through in on paint.

My mentality changed because of this aspect and I developed a bias. It was not as well thought out. The idea was instead buying a break out. I would short before the break while heading to support. Support is not always a line but a range. That was my problem.

I think I can pull myself out of it though. the problem is that if price goes back there I cant close the order as it is a hedge.

The issue is that now all my orders are heavily on one side of the market.

I want to balance this out.

I cant balance this out because my account has limited funds. the account is not made for long term hedges. So all my orders may close at a loss because I ran out of funds.

I can only justify this for 1 order. but mentality some how effect all my trades to some degree.

The effected the orders because I need to open new orders to balance out my one sidedness. If I do that and they go the wrong way, the chances that my account gets closed due to insufficient balance is increased. so now fear has taken over.

I am using too little funds to do what I am doing. I need to play with money management (not risk to reward but rather what % to invest)

As lazy as I am, I will need to find a way to calculate how much to invest or have in the account so that a couple of bad moves do not effect me.

I guess technically I should add funds to my account as I have placed a long term trade in there that by definition will have more risk.

I probably wont as It is a training tool I use to teach myself not to mess up. I blow the account and add funds. but I do not put in all my funds.

Still I may be able to turn this around if the balance in the account represents what i think it does. There are times were I have to risk the trades you see before were free of risk for the most part. I just hate to see numbers like -8$ on my statement.

the -8 $ is actually a position that was going to closed near 0 but i got out too early becuase of the nature of support and resistance (it was not worth 8$ to hope for price to go back to entry as it would have to go through the riskyness of breaking through support.) I should make sure I do not place my entries too far out .

Though this is strategy development, it is also a journal and also my need to babble.
not sure if it should be moved as of yet. I am sure it will go back to strategy soon (probably money management)
 
The trick is to close those winners and losers when it's convenient and not when the market forces you to, in the case of losers, without jeopardizing your capital.

How you do it is up to you and in there lies the grail.
 
Quote from RedTankEra:

The trick is to close those winners and losers when it's convenient and not when the market forces you to, in the case of losers, without jeopardizing your capital.

How you do it is up to you and in there lies the grail.
More...

Thanks RedTankEra,

I must say the advice is vague and months ago I would have ignored it cause it does not explain how to do go about doing it.

But now it is exactly what I am doing. I seem a bit worried on the last orders as I placed more orders then I should of. Because of the higher amount in the market I seem to be a bit more worried. I hate having to hope.But the market pulled away from me and is slowly coming back in my favor. It went through a phase where I would of in the past placed a buy order.But I stay patient with my short that is still in the red. I have to watch out that I have enough to cover the market makers noise.

Your post was one of the only ones I have read that actually is helpful. Id offer to send you a hershy's kiss in the mail. To take out when it is convenient means to me when it is profitable. I interpret the idea as not to worry, price will come back. This means I will need a lot of leeway like I am giving now.

I just do not know how to handle a situation where I accidentally catch a bottom and place a short. I would be patient like now, but what if price never comes back? All I can come up with is not to close the order and maybe hedge it? Either way if price does not revert there will be a negative order that will be pending for ever.

If I was to allow for a point of exit it would mean that the market would could push me out and then the negative orders will follow. With no stop I risk infinite loss.
 
Quote from RedTankEra:

The trick is to close those winners and losers when it's convenient and not when the market forces you to, in the case of losers, without jeopardizing your capital.

How you do it is up to you and in there lies the grail.
More...

I guess in the end it all comes down to the same thing. I have delayed risk, but the risk needs to come out at some point I assume.

I may be able push off risk indefinitely. I just feel like my end trades will dictate the whole reality. So now I need to focus on my last trade, just one. But it would be a big one. Technically it should be able to wipe out all my gains I assume.

So I am left where I began, I need to make a trade that wins. I need to have a bias at one point. When that occures Ill probably start drawing channels and indicators. Its a shame.

The only hope is that there is no rule as to which trade is my last. I am actually trying to close these ones up and get flat. So I am in a bias trade that is marinated in alot of patience.

Maybe choosing the right instrument is important. For example gold (besides this consolidation tends to not revert back to where it was.

Maybe there is a instrument that has a better range. Oil seems to come to mind.
 
Quote from traitor786:

Thanks RedTankEra,

I must say the advice is vague and months ago I would have ignored it cause it does not explain how to do go about doing it.

But now it is exactly what I am doing. I seem a bit worried on the last orders as I placed more orders then I should of. Because of the higher amount in the market I seem to be a bit more worried. I hate having to hope.But the market pulled away from me and is slowly coming back in my favor. It went through a phase where I would of in the past placed a buy order.But I stay patient with my short that is still in the red. I have to watch out that I have enough to cover the market makers noise.

Your post was one of the only ones I have read that actually is helpful. Id offer to send you a hershy's kiss in the mail. To take out when it is convenient means to me when it is profitable. I interpret the idea as not to worry, price will come back. This means I will need a lot of leeway like I am giving now.

I just do not know how to handle a situation where I accidentally catch a bottom and place a short. I would be patient like now, but what if price never comes back? All I can come up with is not to close the order and maybe hedge it? Either way if price does not revert there will be a negative order that will be pending for ever.

If I was to allow for a point of exit it would mean that the market would could push me out and then the negative orders will follow. With no stop I risk infinite loss.
More...


Read and read carefully.

Convenient does not equal positive, you cannot trade to win them all.
 
Quote from RedTankEra:

Read and read carefully.

Convenient does not equal positive, you cannot trade to win them all.
More...

There was always that loop hole. I saw it but thought that nothing could be more convenient then making money. Its a good thing I did not mail out the chocolate kiss. :cool:
 
Quote from traitor786:

There was always that loop hole. I saw it but thought that nothing could be more convenient then making money. Its a good thing I did not mail out the chocolate kiss. :cool:
More...

The market pulled away while i was asleep. As expected my wining streak was followed by my biggest one day loss.

I cant explain the damage this has done on my psyche. This should not have happened period.

A list of problems I made:
1. waited a week to try to exit because I was unintrested and a bunch of things popped up.
2. I added an extra trade that was more of a long term thing As all my trades were on the same side They were all biased.
3. I was trading with no bias (not sure if this was a problem)
4. markets were in a range and broke out I felt adding more positions to hedge would over expose me (stupid!)
5. markets change and holding for a week is not a good idea.
6. no exit strategy.
7. I still do not have the setup I wanted cause i am terrible at programing and understanding this stuff. (cant even manage to hire some one to set it up as it seems new to everyone)
8. I assumed that my lose would equal my my winnings.

Now what:
A) paper trade ?
1. Papper trading has its cost in the form of time, still got pay monthly expenses.
2. boring
3. slower learning curve.

B) Continue trading and quickly implement half assed exits. and theories on exit
1. expecting different results doing pretty much the same thing is a joke.
2. Try another broker with more option of things to trade and more reputable. with decent fees and decent platform (needs to be done but will not be able to take advantage of the new things for a while.
3. Will speed up my learning curve.

C)
Get a job.
1. It apears that I am not employable in decent job and taking care of a family flipping burgers (a job I probably cant hold too long) is a set up for disaster.) It is questionable if it is better to go broke and bounce back up with proper work ethic and new ideas brought on by being hungry.

D) start a business.
1. worked once and risk to reward was great.
2. it was unduplicatable
3. looses on subsequent attempts were consistent but the total loss was much smaller then the total gain.
4. oppertunity seems to be knocking at the door and i have been pushing it off.

E) Hire some one to set me up.
1. no one seems to understand or be able to do what I want, they are all a bunch of people that make EA's and cant seem to get out of that.

2. If not that, it is some guru type that will cost me way too much with no solid evidence of profit that I will accept as fact. (in the case of ET even audited records are not an indication)

3. Adding up all my calls on ET shows a profit as i have not posted my recent losse. even then if I calculate my my netflix short i posted (but did not trade (it was a long term trade that was not expected to be as perfect of an entry as I hoped and was thought to require to high of a stop loss to allow for leeway) if i include that I probably have one of the best records on ET. (you can challenge this if you like and for a newbee this post could be invaluable.) that being said I if you read above you will see that a big loss WAS EXPECTED. I am just pissed for no reason i guess.

4. The help that I need is one that one does not learn unless they go through what I did. This would mean they spent all the time I did had the commitment I did and did not go down a single path. but yet all the paths.
They would have to differ from me in that they went in to all the paths where I went shallow and vague. this would take exponentially more time.

5. Such a person may not be the best at anything and may not be out there advertising his or her services as he is not specialized in any particular field. if he was unprofitable. If he is profitable it is not worth it for him (even at 10k (which I will never pay without proper assurance(which may not even be possible)

6. Team up with a trader or a few traders. This was attempted by some one but he failed. People just look out for them selves. the reply he would get is along the lines of : So I have to first make you an EA and you tell me what to do, and then you offer what ? People good at details tend to the benefit of making money elsewhere in a non team format where they can even mess up and still get paid. (like making EA's on elance) Not that I need an EA)
 
F) Medicate myself legally.

1 You may laugh but i question if a couple of weeks on something that helps me learn to get through my mental barrier (or perceived barrier) is any worse then years of wasted time and money.
In a hart beat I would take it. It is said that many traders have issues for which medication is prescribed. Maybe many took the meds and it is what got them through some highly technical things.

2. Meds do not work on every one. For myself they have 0 effect on my learning or trading. what a rip off!

3. Nothing is out there. the most potent of things that on the street would land some one in jail when prescribed to me is of no value. Should of known when I noticed that coffee and possibly sugar helping people study or energizing them was not a myth.

G)balance out things to keep trading on the side.

1. This would mean getting a job. This is a dead end, whether I change my attitude or not it just is a dead end. Heck I couldn't even manage at a prop firm where I was around people and not expected to communicate with them. At best it is a time killer a pause on expenses it is not an income. its a pause. When your done you are just where you left off.

2. trying a business with nothing else on my plat may be an option, but having a business means the same type of dedication and work 100%. There is no free time to share with learning to trade. learning to trade is learning everything you come across as you dont know what the edge is. or even if there is an edge. There are more stories of people making money and going broke. By definition this means that they pushed risk down the road for years like I just did here on a few trades. Yes maybe some one got out while being on top. But he had to get out because he was smart enough to admit he was pushing risk down the road. Sure maybe 2 traders actually do make money (no evidence of this what so ever) but that is cause they are in the game. lets see how they finish. The statements are some what unfare but you catch the drift.
 
If its too long don't feel obliged to read it. if you wish to respond you dont have to read it all.

lets just say I was at number 10

10. further develop my system.
A) develop my system can have many direction. This has always been teh problem. Possibly all direction will not be teh right ones.

B) Get in to the EA stuff and have some programed a few hundred dollars each) and possibly have to change them every 3 weeks or so. Not exactly sure how that works as an EA taht only works for 3 weeks can only be back tested for 3 weeks (actually not even) maybe you overlap EA's ?

C) make EA's that work in different market conditions and recycle them as market changes. This contradicts 10 b.

D)develop proper exit plan. for my current system (one that I seem to have more control over) this would mean:
1. exit at end of day (minimize risk and profit)
2. allow for a much higher risk and take little profit (this is not a bad idea if it is managed in a good way. each string of trades have higher profit then risk. so its kinda of the same thing in a way
3. learn to program EA's
4. get an edge with speed and data quality
5. stare at the charts of a single instrument for hours on end.(possibly 10,000)
6. get and edge by getting ECN fees.and being the house.
7. get a feel for the market maker idea.
8. set up my self optimally and pay for feeds while I try to learn and pay fees.
9. follow indicators and channels and fibs ...
9.day trade things like bitcoins where the data is more raw and low volume may be easier to learn as im not fighting goldman.
10 do all the above expect #9. which will be kind of like learning JH's system


RISK
11) keep playing with risk. and kicking the can down the road. I knew I was going to fail. but I could of pushed it off.

have enough funds to cover loss when price goes the wrong way so that i can wait out the higher time frame bounce.

In Jh terms play the transvers and when wrong, have enough funds to hit the top of the higher time frame channel and wait days on end for price to revert back to where i wanted it to be.

The best idea thus far to me is to give up trading and focus on finding people to work with and delegate work.

Or I can always become a market GURU make money selling the preconceived systematical missing link while in the mean time making money of guiding people to places. track people behavior on excell and optimize the system also use programs to search and find newbees.

optimize and program... hmmm im half way there !
 
Another startegy that I used when I first began was to buy stocks based on an fundamental assumption that should take effect in a few days.

If it happened I typically saw 20% gains.
If not I had noise (a little down or a little up) the noise trades balanced out one another or were insignificant.

but can I do this leveraged? prop firms do not let you hold over night and long term of placing one order a week with a propfirm is just looking for problems.

any ideas?
 
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