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OPEC 3/15 production cut in doubt now combined with US job loss data (coming ) and manufacturing data will make oil see 42 level

I got my short at 44.15 , it seems no more 44 level for any further shorting ..
 
Quote from InvestVision:

OPEC 3/15 production cut in doubt now combined with US job loss data (coming ) and manufacturing data will make oil see 42 level

I got my short at 44.15 , it seems no more 44 level for any further shorting ..

from my bullish view post on oil last week 2 things changed in a big way resulted me to reverse my position
1) OEPC cut in doubt
2) S&P dropped 50 point from mid of last week
 
http://news.xinhuanet.com/english/2009-03/01/content_10924126.htm

Iran's oil minister sees no OPEC output cut in March


TEHRAN, March 1 (Xinhua) -- Iran's Oil Minister Gholam-Hossein Nozari said that the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC) would not cut its output in March, the satellite Press TV reported on Sunday.

"I do not think we move towards cutting production again. Instead, a mechanism should be defined to repair prices in the oil market," Nozari was quoted as saying.

In an earlier attempt to stabilize the world oil market, OPEC agreed in December to "cut production by a record 2.2 million barrels per day (bpd), taking total curbs since last September to 4.2 million bpd, the equivalent of 5 percent of global oil supply."

The 12-member oil cartel, which pumps nearly 40 percent of global supply, is due to hold an ordinary meeting on March 15 in the Austrian capital of Vienna to bolster sagging oil prices under the global economic slowdown.

"OPEC will review the oil market at the Vienna summit and will decide about its production policy in view of the world economic growth in this year and 2010," said Nozari.


Quote from InvestVision:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ag0zqWPfbaVM&refer=home

- OPEC gave conflicting signals on their intentions to further cut on 3/15

- Net Long positions fell by 16,267 contracts, or 36 percent, from a week earlier.


1) Officials from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, the supplier of 40 percent of the world’s oil, gave conflicting signals on their intentions to further cut output to bolster prices when they meet in Vienna on March 15.

The group “will likely” reduce supplies to support prices when it gathers, Algerian Oil Minister Chakib Khelil said on Feb. 28 in Algiers.

OPEC Production

Yesterday, Iran’s oil minister said OPEC is unlikely to lower crude production when it meets.

“I don’t believe we will go toward another production cut,” Gholamhossein Nozari said in comments posted on the Web site of state-run Iranian Students News Agency. “In this meeting we will need to review the economic situation in 2009 and 2010.”


Crude oil, which fell to a five-year low of $33.87 on Dec. 19, has rebounded as OPEC restricted supply. At its last meeting in December, members agreed to a record 9 percent reduction in supply targets effective Jan. 1, extending two earlier resolutions to curb production as the global economy sank into a recession, straining the budgets of crude exporters.

COT:
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators decreased their net-long position in New York crude-oil futures in the week ended Feb. 24, according to U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data.

2) Speculative long positions, or bets prices will rise, outnumbered short positions by 28,749 contracts on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the Washington-based commission said in its Commitments of Traders report.

3) Net-long positions fell by 16,267 contracts, or 36 percent, from a week earlier.
 
I came across this premium new letter for energy sector . It is priced at $875/month ( 5 people can receive report ) and it is daily report .
Based on it references ( mentioned in bloomberg , wall street journal etc.. ) it seems authentic. Especially I liked the report card at the end of section mentioning BULL , BEAR score points.

I liked it and felt price is bit high, Let us check and see if anybody else from this forum interested ..


http://www.energymarketintelligence.com/resources-sampleissues.html

http://www.energymarketintelligence.com/services-subscriptionpricing.html

http://www.energymarketintelligence.com/press.html
 
aloha mate, i saw that news lastnight, but wasnt sure abaout how genuine it actually is.

Esepcially from the iranians who want oil higher than anyone! :cool:


They arent stupid though and do know exactly how 'pricing in' works,
so i think its very likely they said theres doubt about cut to lower market mood and sentiment abit inadvance,
but then then at the meeting when they do cut, and a sizeable amount,
it will be a big big shock and jolt to the market,
and that impact will start to spread into the future as people will see opec are willing to play dirty to rise the price.
 
Quote from InvestVision:

OPEC 3/15 production cut in doubt now combined with US job loss data (coming ) and manufacturing data will make oil see 42 level

I got my short at 44.15 , it seems no more 44 level for any further shorting ..

shorts closed at 41.77 , I call it a day.
It's great ride , i missed some part of recent bull ride that is all covered now .
 
this is the bit i really relaly hate most about trading though.. :(

the waiting while it slowly goes into profit, and just have to hope it keeps going
 
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