5% - 10% profit per day trading
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Crude oil outlook for end of APR contract (March 20 th )
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Yesterday govt. stock piles report showed fundamental shift in the oil price outlook and todays oil price action confirmed the same.
1) all 4 fundamental oil demand factors ( mentioned in the post below confirmed 'oil demand destruction ' is halted.
2) after seeing this price action for last 3 weeks OPEC learned how to stop price drop below $35 level . This is the biggest factors going forward for months effecting oil prices. In the past OPEC did not confirm to cuts because prices are around 70 to 100 range so no real big incentive to confirm.
3) in a day or two OPEC will announce further new oil production cuts 1-2 million barrels
3) on March 20 th when this APRIL contract expires , this contract will close between 42 and 47 depending on where DOW and S&P stands on the week of March 20 ( on oil supply side OPEC now learned the control, so supply side is no longer a factor )
4) now the oil price $40 is the fire wall Resistance ( regardless of DOW and S&P )
5) SHORING oil below $42 is risky ( any time now onwards )
6) we can defiantly see oil crossing $50 before March 20 , we can see this action many times . If somebody can buy around 42 and put a LIMIT 50 and forget for 3 weeks can see 8k in account
7) finally congratulations @useman , you held this view for couple of weeks that OPEC cuts will rise the price and you deserve your recent ride
-----------------------------------------------------
Yesterday govt. stock piles report showed fundamental shift in the oil price outlook and todays oil price action confirmed the same.
1) all 4 fundamental oil demand factors ( mentioned in the post below confirmed 'oil demand destruction ' is halted.
2) after seeing this price action for last 3 weeks OPEC learned how to stop price drop below $35 level . This is the biggest factors going forward for months effecting oil prices. In the past OPEC did not confirm to cuts because prices are around 70 to 100 range so no real big incentive to confirm.
3) in a day or two OPEC will announce further new oil production cuts 1-2 million barrels
3) on March 20 th when this APRIL contract expires , this contract will close between 42 and 47 depending on where DOW and S&P stands on the week of March 20 ( on oil supply side OPEC now learned the control, so supply side is no longer a factor )
4) now the oil price $40 is the fire wall Resistance ( regardless of DOW and S&P )
5) SHORING oil below $42 is risky ( any time now onwards )
6) we can defiantly see oil crossing $50 before March 20 , we can see this action many times . If somebody can buy around 42 and put a LIMIT 50 and forget for 3 weeks can see 8k in account
7) finally congratulations @useman , you held this view for couple of weeks that OPEC cuts will rise the price and you deserve your recent ride
I am closing this spread at different time frame with flat or little loss .
now with 2/25/09 govt. stock piles report , oil price outlook picture is completely changed so spreads between months will be thin now onwards ...
Oil Prices: âThe Floor Has Been Reachedâ
-- February 26, 2009
---------------------------------------------------
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/02/26/oil-prices-the-floor-has-been-reached/
Crude oil futures are hoppingâprices are up almost 6% to about $45 in New York mid-morning. Since the U.S. recession didnât end Wednesday night, what red flag is being waved at oil bulls?
In a word: supply. Or as Catfish Hunter might have said in a cleaner moment, âThe sun donât shine on the same dog every day.â After months of market focus on the outlook for oil demand, especially in the U.S., attention is turning back to the supply-side picture. That mostly means OPEC, which provides about 40% of the worldâs crude.
OPEC genuinely seems to be complying with its pledged output cuts, Conrad Gerber, head of Geneva-based oil-intelligence firm Petro-Logistics SA, told us. And that means crude oilâs recent upward march might just be the start of bigger things: âThe floor has been reached,â Mr. Gerber says.
Preliminary data from February suggests OPEC members lopped off one million barrels of oil rom a month earlier. All in all, Mr. Gerber figures OPEC has shaved off 3.5 million barrels since Septemberâor 83% of its announced cut of 4.2 million barrels. That might only merit a âBâ in most schoolrooms, but given OPECâs past record on compliance, thatâs an A+âand better than Mr. Gerber had anticipated.
Granted, compliance isnât perfectâIran and Venezuela in particular have lagged, leaving Saudi Arabia to shoulder most of the burden as usual. That calls into question OPECâs ability to cut an additional million barrels at its March meeting. The Saudis can only cut oil production so farâbeyond revenue concerns, the kingdom needs a minimum level of oil production to get the associated natural gas that runs its industries.
Moving on from the voluntary production cuts to the other side of the supply picture: involuntary cuts coming from non-OPEC nations like Russia and Mexico. These countries are beset by aging, declining oil fields. Mexicoâs oil industry is in free-fall. And budget shaving capital cuts are slowing the development of new oil fields to replace the barrels lost to natural decline.
Taken together, the supply-side reductions appear to be a lot bigger than the 1.5 million barrels or so that have disappeared from the global demand side of the ledger. âTheyâve really mopped up the excess,â Mr. Gerber says.
And that means that OPEC might just be able to nudge oil prices toward its comfort zone between $60 and $80 a barrel sometime this year, he says.
-- February 26, 2009
---------------------------------------------------
http://blogs.wsj.com/environmentalcapital/2009/02/26/oil-prices-the-floor-has-been-reached/
Crude oil futures are hoppingâprices are up almost 6% to about $45 in New York mid-morning. Since the U.S. recession didnât end Wednesday night, what red flag is being waved at oil bulls?
In a word: supply. Or as Catfish Hunter might have said in a cleaner moment, âThe sun donât shine on the same dog every day.â After months of market focus on the outlook for oil demand, especially in the U.S., attention is turning back to the supply-side picture. That mostly means OPEC, which provides about 40% of the worldâs crude.
OPEC genuinely seems to be complying with its pledged output cuts, Conrad Gerber, head of Geneva-based oil-intelligence firm Petro-Logistics SA, told us. And that means crude oilâs recent upward march might just be the start of bigger things: âThe floor has been reached,â Mr. Gerber says.
Preliminary data from February suggests OPEC members lopped off one million barrels of oil rom a month earlier. All in all, Mr. Gerber figures OPEC has shaved off 3.5 million barrels since Septemberâor 83% of its announced cut of 4.2 million barrels. That might only merit a âBâ in most schoolrooms, but given OPECâs past record on compliance, thatâs an A+âand better than Mr. Gerber had anticipated.
Granted, compliance isnât perfectâIran and Venezuela in particular have lagged, leaving Saudi Arabia to shoulder most of the burden as usual. That calls into question OPECâs ability to cut an additional million barrels at its March meeting. The Saudis can only cut oil production so farâbeyond revenue concerns, the kingdom needs a minimum level of oil production to get the associated natural gas that runs its industries.
Moving on from the voluntary production cuts to the other side of the supply picture: involuntary cuts coming from non-OPEC nations like Russia and Mexico. These countries are beset by aging, declining oil fields. Mexicoâs oil industry is in free-fall. And budget shaving capital cuts are slowing the development of new oil fields to replace the barrels lost to natural decline.
Taken together, the supply-side reductions appear to be a lot bigger than the 1.5 million barrels or so that have disappeared from the global demand side of the ledger. âTheyâve really mopped up the excess,â Mr. Gerber says.
And that means that OPEC might just be able to nudge oil prices toward its comfort zone between $60 and $80 a barrel sometime this year, he says.
I looked at gasoline at the close, rose 12% today! 
Thats ontop of the 9% rise from yesterday, and the 10% from the day before.
So the hedgefund traders who been buying/moving gasoline will be getting big bonuses this month!
It was nice to see the dow drop 160points since the afternoon though, hopefully all the trend chasers will jump onto it and pull the spike down below 7100 by the close..
On oil its extremely likely that it can still rise overnight and tomorrow again,
after the 21% rise over the last 3days,
and the 46% rise over the last 1week! :eek:
And we have now got a nice cats ears formation formed her...
(chart)
The reall annoying frustrating thing is though that these foratiosn are now taking many hours - many days,
instead of taking seconds - minutes.
Thats ontop of the 9% rise from yesterday, and the 10% from the day before.
So the hedgefund traders who been buying/moving gasoline will be getting big bonuses this month!
It was nice to see the dow drop 160points since the afternoon though, hopefully all the trend chasers will jump onto it and pull the spike down below 7100 by the close..
On oil its extremely likely that it can still rise overnight and tomorrow again,
after the 21% rise over the last 3days,
and the 46% rise over the last 1week! :eek:
And we have now got a nice cats ears formation formed her...
(chart)
The reall annoying frustrating thing is though that these foratiosn are now taking many hours - many days,
instead of taking seconds - minutes.
Supply becomes issue as oil prices rise again
--------------------------
Investors have for months focused on demand as global economy slumped
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12400801/
DENVER - Oil prices jumped for a second consecutive day Thursday as the supply of crude, for months a secondary consideration to rapidly declining demand, appeared to gain force as a market mover.
Traders have followed economic data that suggested producers could not cut production fast enough to match falling demand.
The government reported that imports over the last two weeks are more than 10 percent below the prior monthâs average, hinting that massive OPEC cuts may finally have reached the U.S. market.
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updated 12:52 p.m. PT, Thurs., Feb. 26, 2009
DENVER - Oil prices jumped for a second consecutive day Thursday as the supply of crude, for months a secondary consideration to rapidly declining demand, appeared to gain force as a market mover.
Traders have followed economic data that suggested producers could not cut production fast enough to match falling demand.
The government reported that imports over the last two weeks are more than 10 percent below the prior monthâs average, hinting that massive OPEC cuts may finally have reached the U.S. market.
Story continues below ↓advertisement | your ad here
Light, sweet crude for April delivery jumped 6.4 percent, or $2.72 to settle at $45.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Many analysts believe, however, that the uptick in prices is temporary. They say inventories are at near-record levels and the severe global economic downturn will depress prices further.
âItâs still dependent on whether or not we get some sort of economic recovery,â said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service.
Consumers and businesses have slashed spending on energy and millions of people are out of work, meaning the no longer get in a car and drive every day.
The government reported Thursday that new jobless claims rose again and the number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits has topped 5.1 million.
The Labor Department saidfirst-time requests for unemployment benefits jumped to 667,000 from the previous weekâs figure of 631,000.
And analysts are still skeptical that OPEC will stick to production cuts with the budgets of member countries under severe strain.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries appears so far to have stuck to production cuts of 4.2 million barrels a day and most believe another cut of at least 1 million barrels will be announced during the next OPEC meeting on March 15.
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said Thursday it would cut as much as 17 percent of its output on various grades of oil. Reductions of 10 percent to 15 percent were announced late January.
The report came a day after the U.S. government released data showing that gasoline demand was up 1.7 percent, compared with the same period last year, to an average of 9 million barrels per day.
âYear-over-year demand growth is almost back to normal,â Alaron Trading analyst Flynn wrote in his daily report. âKind of a surprise but it could be a sign that the mood of the consumer is improving a bit.â
gasoline
---------------
Retail gasoline prices have traveled in the opposite direction of oil for weeks, and Thursday was no different.
Prices at the pump dropped Thursday to a national average of $1.882 per gallon, down about a penny overnight, according to auto club AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express.
Thatâs still five cents more than a month ago, but $1.27 less than a year ago.
Refiners stung first by soaring crude prices in 2008, then an unprecedented drop off in demand this year, are averaging 82.2 percent of capacity. That is more than 5 percentage points below the five-year average, energy analyst Stephen Schork said.
âRefineries are not making gasoline and they are not importing it,â he wrote Thursday. âWe are going to see a steady purge in material.â
That could mean recent declines in gas prices are short-lived. That showed up in gas futures Thursday, which soared more than 12 percent, the second straight day of strong gains.
Gasoline futures rose 13.37 cents to settle at $1.3004 a gallon. Heating oil increased 5.64 cents to settle at $1.2941 a gallon, while natural gas for March delivery gained 4.8 cents to settle at $4.077 per 1,000 cubic feet.
--------------------------
Investors have for months focused on demand as global economy slumped
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/12400801/
DENVER - Oil prices jumped for a second consecutive day Thursday as the supply of crude, for months a secondary consideration to rapidly declining demand, appeared to gain force as a market mover.
Traders have followed economic data that suggested producers could not cut production fast enough to match falling demand.
The government reported that imports over the last two weeks are more than 10 percent below the prior monthâs average, hinting that massive OPEC cuts may finally have reached the U.S. market.
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The high price of fuel
Our cartoonists take a look at soaring oil and gas prices.
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Source: Feds set to boost stake in Citigroup
The government is on the verge of closing a deal to significantly boost its ownership stake in Citigroup. In return, it will demand changes be made on the troubled banking giant's board, source says.
Dividing up the pain of bank nationalization
Obama budget allows for another bank bailout
U.S. banks post first quarterly loss in 18 years
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updated 12:52 p.m. PT, Thurs., Feb. 26, 2009
DENVER - Oil prices jumped for a second consecutive day Thursday as the supply of crude, for months a secondary consideration to rapidly declining demand, appeared to gain force as a market mover.
Traders have followed economic data that suggested producers could not cut production fast enough to match falling demand.
The government reported that imports over the last two weeks are more than 10 percent below the prior monthâs average, hinting that massive OPEC cuts may finally have reached the U.S. market.
Story continues below ↓advertisement | your ad here
Light, sweet crude for April delivery jumped 6.4 percent, or $2.72 to settle at $45.22 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
Many analysts believe, however, that the uptick in prices is temporary. They say inventories are at near-record levels and the severe global economic downturn will depress prices further.
âItâs still dependent on whether or not we get some sort of economic recovery,â said Tom Kloza, publisher and chief oil analyst at Oil Price Information Service.
Consumers and businesses have slashed spending on energy and millions of people are out of work, meaning the no longer get in a car and drive every day.
The government reported Thursday that new jobless claims rose again and the number of Americans continuing to receive unemployment benefits has topped 5.1 million.
The Labor Department saidfirst-time requests for unemployment benefits jumped to 667,000 from the previous weekâs figure of 631,000.
And analysts are still skeptical that OPEC will stick to production cuts with the budgets of member countries under severe strain.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries appears so far to have stuck to production cuts of 4.2 million barrels a day and most believe another cut of at least 1 million barrels will be announced during the next OPEC meeting on March 15.
The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company said Thursday it would cut as much as 17 percent of its output on various grades of oil. Reductions of 10 percent to 15 percent were announced late January.
The report came a day after the U.S. government released data showing that gasoline demand was up 1.7 percent, compared with the same period last year, to an average of 9 million barrels per day.
âYear-over-year demand growth is almost back to normal,â Alaron Trading analyst Flynn wrote in his daily report. âKind of a surprise but it could be a sign that the mood of the consumer is improving a bit.â
gasoline
---------------
Retail gasoline prices have traveled in the opposite direction of oil for weeks, and Thursday was no different.
Prices at the pump dropped Thursday to a national average of $1.882 per gallon, down about a penny overnight, according to auto club AAA, the Oil Price Information Service and Wright Express.
Thatâs still five cents more than a month ago, but $1.27 less than a year ago.
Refiners stung first by soaring crude prices in 2008, then an unprecedented drop off in demand this year, are averaging 82.2 percent of capacity. That is more than 5 percentage points below the five-year average, energy analyst Stephen Schork said.
âRefineries are not making gasoline and they are not importing it,â he wrote Thursday. âWe are going to see a steady purge in material.â
That could mean recent declines in gas prices are short-lived. That showed up in gas futures Thursday, which soared more than 12 percent, the second straight day of strong gains.
Gasoline futures rose 13.37 cents to settle at $1.3004 a gallon. Heating oil increased 5.64 cents to settle at $1.2941 a gallon, while natural gas for March delivery gained 4.8 cents to settle at $4.077 per 1,000 cubic feet.
Just cashed in at 42.71,
after turning down the pause at .62 a few mins before.
But was very lucky as about 30seocnds after i cashed in the thing spiked 30ticks!
(I used tick-tick chart to get the perfect exit)
Took a total of 86ticks profit after the spread with that trade,
and now going to sell if we can get anotehr big spiek form somwhere today that can be sold down.
after turning down the pause at .62 a few mins before.
But was very lucky as about 30seocnds after i cashed in the thing spiked 30ticks!
(I used tick-tick chart to get the perfect exit)
Took a total of 86ticks profit after the spread with that trade,
and now going to sell if we can get anotehr big spiek form somwhere today that can be sold down.
today oil can pull down to 42.0 or even down due to DOW , S&P , it is the oil buy day that level then forget for 2 weeks for 48-50 level
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