5% - 10% profit per day trading
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small short from just before the restart, at 60.30 on the July contract. looking for 50c.
EIA: US 2Q Oil Use Revised -260,000 B/D Vs April Forecast
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NEW YORK -- Citing "a continuing weak economy," government forecasters said Tuesday U.S. oil demand in the current quarter 2009 will be 18.64 million barrels a day, down more than 1 million barrels a day, or 5.3% below a year ago.
The latest projection from the Energy Information Administration is 1.4%, or 260,000 barrels a day below its April forecast.
Demand will be the weakest for the quarter in 13 years and the lowest in any quarter since the first quarter of 1998.
For the peak driving season, which spans the second and third quarters, gasoline demand will average 9.075 million barrels a day, fractionally below the month-earlier forecast, and 0.7%, or 65,000 barrels a day above the 2008 level.
For all of 2009, oil demand in the world's biggest energy consumer will be the weakest since 1997, at 18.85 million barrels a day, down 2.9%, or 570,000 barrels a day below a year earlier.
The forecast is a downward revision of 140,000 barrels a day from the April forecast. A 200,000 barrels a day drop in distillate demand (heating oil and diesel) accounts for much of the decline.
In 2010, expected economic recovery will lift demand by 250,000 barrels a day to 19.1 million barrels a day, the EIA said.
U.S. third-quarter oil demand will average a 12-year low of 18.79 million barrels a day, down 0.3%, or 50,000 barrels a day from a year earlier, and 60,000 barrels a below the April forecast, which projected a slim year-on-year rise.
EIA: World 2Q Oil Use Revised -440,000 B/D Vs April Outlook
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NEW YORK -- Amid the continued global economic downturn, U.S. forecasters Tuesday said world oil demand in the current quarter will be 82.68 million barrels a day, down 3.9%, or 3.4 million barrels a day, from a year earlier.
In its May short-term energy outlook, the Energy Information Administration cut its second-quarter oil demand forecast by 440,000 barrels a day from a month earlier.
The EIA also revised upward its world demand figure for the second-quarter 2008 by 910,000 barrels a day, to 86.07 million barrels a day.
Oil demand from China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer after the U.S., will average 8.09 million barrels a day in the current quarter, down 100,000 barrels a day, or 1.2%, from a revised year-earlier level. The EIA revised its second-quarter 2008 demand figure for China upward by 200,000 barrels a day from the figure used in April, to 8.19 million barrels a day.
For all of 2009, the EIA sees world demand down 2%, or 1.77 million barrels a day, from a year earlier, at a five-year low of 83.67 million barrels a day. The decline would be the biggest on a percentage basis since 1982 and the most on a volume basis since 1981, EIA data show.
Chinese oil demand in 2009 is expected to average a record 8.05 million barrels a day, up 1.25%, or 100,000 barrels a day, from a year earlier.
Demand in the major industrialized nations such as the U.S. that comprise the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is expected to fall 2 million barrels a day in 2009 from a year earlier to a 14-year low of 45.35 million barrels a day. OECD demand will shrink a further 120,000 barrels a day in 2010, to 45.23 million barrels a day, even as demand rises elsewhere.
In 2010, world oil demand is expected to rise by 720,000 barrels a day, or 0.9%, to 84.39 million barrels a day. China's oil demand is expected to rise by 270,000 barrels a day, or 3.4%, to 8.32 million barrels a day.
The EIA said preliminary oil inventories at the end of the first quarter in OECD nations are sufficient to cover an unusually high level of 60 days of forward demand, with much of the counter-seasonal build occurring in the U.S. OECD stocks were "well above average levels" at 2.7 billion barrels at the end of 2008.
An additional 130 million barrels of surplus crude is housed in floating storage on tankers, the EIA said. Industry estimates have generally cited a figure of 100 million barrels in floating crude-oil storage.
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NEW YORK -- Citing "a continuing weak economy," government forecasters said Tuesday U.S. oil demand in the current quarter 2009 will be 18.64 million barrels a day, down more than 1 million barrels a day, or 5.3% below a year ago.
The latest projection from the Energy Information Administration is 1.4%, or 260,000 barrels a day below its April forecast.
Demand will be the weakest for the quarter in 13 years and the lowest in any quarter since the first quarter of 1998.
For the peak driving season, which spans the second and third quarters, gasoline demand will average 9.075 million barrels a day, fractionally below the month-earlier forecast, and 0.7%, or 65,000 barrels a day above the 2008 level.
For all of 2009, oil demand in the world's biggest energy consumer will be the weakest since 1997, at 18.85 million barrels a day, down 2.9%, or 570,000 barrels a day below a year earlier.
The forecast is a downward revision of 140,000 barrels a day from the April forecast. A 200,000 barrels a day drop in distillate demand (heating oil and diesel) accounts for much of the decline.
In 2010, expected economic recovery will lift demand by 250,000 barrels a day to 19.1 million barrels a day, the EIA said.
U.S. third-quarter oil demand will average a 12-year low of 18.79 million barrels a day, down 0.3%, or 50,000 barrels a day from a year earlier, and 60,000 barrels a below the April forecast, which projected a slim year-on-year rise.
EIA: World 2Q Oil Use Revised -440,000 B/D Vs April Outlook
----------------------------------
NEW YORK -- Amid the continued global economic downturn, U.S. forecasters Tuesday said world oil demand in the current quarter will be 82.68 million barrels a day, down 3.9%, or 3.4 million barrels a day, from a year earlier.
In its May short-term energy outlook, the Energy Information Administration cut its second-quarter oil demand forecast by 440,000 barrels a day from a month earlier.
The EIA also revised upward its world demand figure for the second-quarter 2008 by 910,000 barrels a day, to 86.07 million barrels a day.
Oil demand from China, the world's second-biggest oil consumer after the U.S., will average 8.09 million barrels a day in the current quarter, down 100,000 barrels a day, or 1.2%, from a revised year-earlier level. The EIA revised its second-quarter 2008 demand figure for China upward by 200,000 barrels a day from the figure used in April, to 8.19 million barrels a day.
For all of 2009, the EIA sees world demand down 2%, or 1.77 million barrels a day, from a year earlier, at a five-year low of 83.67 million barrels a day. The decline would be the biggest on a percentage basis since 1982 and the most on a volume basis since 1981, EIA data show.
Chinese oil demand in 2009 is expected to average a record 8.05 million barrels a day, up 1.25%, or 100,000 barrels a day, from a year earlier.
Demand in the major industrialized nations such as the U.S. that comprise the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development is expected to fall 2 million barrels a day in 2009 from a year earlier to a 14-year low of 45.35 million barrels a day. OECD demand will shrink a further 120,000 barrels a day in 2010, to 45.23 million barrels a day, even as demand rises elsewhere.
In 2010, world oil demand is expected to rise by 720,000 barrels a day, or 0.9%, to 84.39 million barrels a day. China's oil demand is expected to rise by 270,000 barrels a day, or 3.4%, to 8.32 million barrels a day.
The EIA said preliminary oil inventories at the end of the first quarter in OECD nations are sufficient to cover an unusually high level of 60 days of forward demand, with much of the counter-seasonal build occurring in the U.S. OECD stocks were "well above average levels" at 2.7 billion barrels at the end of 2008.
An additional 130 million barrels of surplus crude is housed in floating storage on tankers, the EIA said. Industry estimates have generally cited a figure of 100 million barrels in floating crude-oil storage.
IV Note: API released numbers show big drawdown on all fronts , It will be very bullish for oil price tomorrow if same is confirmed by EIA .
- it seems part of this 59.60 overnite price hike is from API and part from EURO rise
crude stocks: -3.1
gasoline : -2.0
Distillate Stocks : -1.7
Refinary: -1.2
CURRENT WEEK YEAR AGO PREV WK
CHANGES 05/08/09 05/09/08 05/01/09
Ref % Operated - - 81.9 88.9 83.3
Ttl Mogas Stocks -2,006 211,083 210,393 213,089
Distillate Stocks -1,757 143,615 107,385 145,372
Resid Fuel Stocks 1,391 37,723 38,386 36,332
** Crude Imports -985 8,723 9,336 9,708
Crude Oil Stocks -3,130 370,689 321,033 373,819
**-Thousands Of Barrels Per Day *-Revised
- it seems part of this 59.60 overnite price hike is from API and part from EURO rise
crude stocks: -3.1
gasoline : -2.0
Distillate Stocks : -1.7
Refinary: -1.2
CURRENT WEEK YEAR AGO PREV WK
CHANGES 05/08/09 05/09/08 05/01/09
Ref % Operated - - 81.9 88.9 83.3
Ttl Mogas Stocks -2,006 211,083 210,393 213,089
Distillate Stocks -1,757 143,615 107,385 145,372
Resid Fuel Stocks 1,391 37,723 38,386 36,332
** Crude Imports -985 8,723 9,336 9,708
Crude Oil Stocks -3,130 370,689 321,033 373,819
**-Thousands Of Barrels Per Day *-Revised
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-c...24847.html?sec=topStories&pos=2&asset=&ccode=
After settlement in New York, the American Petroleum Institute said oil stocks fell 3.13 million barrels to 370.7 million last week. Analysts had expected a gain of 1.4 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.
"The big driver today is the API number," said Clarence Chu, a trader with market maker Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. "That's a pretty big draw when people were expecting a build."
Investors will also be watching for the weekly petroleum inventory data from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. According to the EIA, crude stocks have risen ten consecutive weeks and are near 19-year highs.
After settlement in New York, the American Petroleum Institute said oil stocks fell 3.13 million barrels to 370.7 million last week. Analysts had expected a gain of 1.4 million barrels, according to a survey by Platts, the energy information arm of McGraw-Hill Cos.
"The big driver today is the API number," said Clarence Chu, a trader with market maker Hudson Capital Energy in Singapore. "That's a pretty big draw when people were expecting a build."
Investors will also be watching for the weekly petroleum inventory data from the Energy Department's Energy Information Administration on Wednesday. According to the EIA, crude stocks have risen ten consecutive weeks and are near 19-year highs.
it seems EURUSD 1.363 and ES at 902 togeher keeping oil at this low 5930 level
I am long at 5935 level , feel we will see 5980 level before EIA report once ES and EURUSD picks little bit ..
I am long at 5935 level , feel we will see 5980 level before EIA report once ES and EURUSD picks little bit ..
IV note: old news , for record ...
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Oil advances as China imports rise, dollar weakens
OPEC boosts production in April for first month since August as prices rise
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose Tuesday, briefly topping $60 a barrel as data showed China's crude imports for April jumped nearly 14% from a year ago and as a weaker dollar reduced dollar-denominated oil prices.
Crude for June delivery ended up 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $58.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Trading remained volatile Tuesday, with prices falling to $57.81 earlier but also rallying 2.7% to touch a six-month high of $60.08.
Oil has surged more than 70% from its mid-February low below $34 a barrel. In the year to date, it has gained more than 30%. But the rally could soon be reversed, analysts said, as oil demand still remains weak.
"While crude had a bullish tone on China's import numbers, it's hard to ignore the fundamental reality with crude demand is decreasing while supply is increasing," said Tariq Zahir, managing member at futures trading firm Tyche Capital Advisors.
The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to report on last week's petroleum stockpiles Wednesday morning.
Analysts at energy information provider Platts expect inventories to have risen across the board: Crude is pegged to show an increase of 1.4 million barrels, with gasoline stockpiles seen gaining 400,000 barrels, and distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, seen growing by 1 million barrels on the week.
In its previous update, the EIA reported that crude inventories rose to more than 375 million barrels in the week ended May 1, the highest level since September 1990.
Meanwhile, the EIA said Tuesday in a monthly report that it now projected world oil demand to fall by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2009, a decline that is 400,000 barrels larger than the EIA had forecasted last month.
Oil prices will remain flat for the remainder of the year, averaging about $55 a barrel, the EIA said
In foreign-exchange dealings, the dollar weakened against most major rivals, making dollar-denominated crude cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Helping push the dollar lower, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade deficit increased by 5.5% to $27.6 billion in March from $26.1 billion in February. See Economic Report on U.S. trade data.
Also in energy trading Tuesday, June-reformulated gasoline fell 1.23 cents, or 0.7%, to $1.6679 a gallon, and June heating oil added 0.61 cent, or 0.4%, to $1.5070 a gallon.
Natural gas for June delivery gained 18.8 cents, or 4.4% to $4.490 per million British thermal units.
China imports
China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, increased its imports by 13.6% last month to 16.17 million metric tons, or 3.9 million barrels a day, the mainland's customs department said in an online statement Tuesday.
April's imports were still lower compared with the 16.34 million tons China bought from abroad in March, the highest in a year.
The country imports about half of its oil consumption, which stood at 7.8 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency.
China is also buying oil to build its strategic reserve. The country is aiming to build an oil reserve that can meet 90 to 100 days of demand. Based on the current consumption level, that will put the reserve amount at about 780 million barrels.
The U.S.'s Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently holds 718.7 million barrels of oil, or about 40 days of consumption at the current demand level.
OPEC raises production
In other supply news, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which controls about one-third of the world's oil supply, increased its production in April for the first month since August, 2008, according to a survey released on Tuesday by energy information provider Platts.
The 12-member cartel pumped an average 28.09 million barrels per day last month, according to the survey of OPEC members, oil industry officials and analysts. This is an increase of 110,000 barrels a day from March.
Production from the 11 OPEC members bound by quotas rose 130,000 barrels a day to 25.74 million barrels in April from 25.61 million barrels in March. Iraq does not participate in output agreements.
"It isn't surprising that as prices rise steadily, OPEC's adherence to its production restraints is weakening," said Platts global director of oil John Kingston.
The latest estimates leave the 11 OPEC members some 895,000 barrels a day in excess of their target, according to Platts. Compliance with the 4.2 million barrels a day cut agreed in December had risen to 81.79% in March but fell back to 78.69% in April
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Oil advances as China imports rise, dollar weakens
OPEC boosts production in April for first month since August as prices rise
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Crude-oil futures rose Tuesday, briefly topping $60 a barrel as data showed China's crude imports for April jumped nearly 14% from a year ago and as a weaker dollar reduced dollar-denominated oil prices.
Crude for June delivery ended up 35 cents, or 0.6%, to $58.85 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Trading remained volatile Tuesday, with prices falling to $57.81 earlier but also rallying 2.7% to touch a six-month high of $60.08.
Oil has surged more than 70% from its mid-February low below $34 a barrel. In the year to date, it has gained more than 30%. But the rally could soon be reversed, analysts said, as oil demand still remains weak.
"While crude had a bullish tone on China's import numbers, it's hard to ignore the fundamental reality with crude demand is decreasing while supply is increasing," said Tariq Zahir, managing member at futures trading firm Tyche Capital Advisors.
The Energy Information Administration is scheduled to report on last week's petroleum stockpiles Wednesday morning.
Analysts at energy information provider Platts expect inventories to have risen across the board: Crude is pegged to show an increase of 1.4 million barrels, with gasoline stockpiles seen gaining 400,000 barrels, and distillates, which include diesel and heating oil, seen growing by 1 million barrels on the week.
In its previous update, the EIA reported that crude inventories rose to more than 375 million barrels in the week ended May 1, the highest level since September 1990.
Meanwhile, the EIA said Tuesday in a monthly report that it now projected world oil demand to fall by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2009, a decline that is 400,000 barrels larger than the EIA had forecasted last month.
Oil prices will remain flat for the remainder of the year, averaging about $55 a barrel, the EIA said
In foreign-exchange dealings, the dollar weakened against most major rivals, making dollar-denominated crude cheaper for holders of other currencies.
Helping push the dollar lower, the Commerce Department reported that the U.S. trade deficit increased by 5.5% to $27.6 billion in March from $26.1 billion in February. See Economic Report on U.S. trade data.
Also in energy trading Tuesday, June-reformulated gasoline fell 1.23 cents, or 0.7%, to $1.6679 a gallon, and June heating oil added 0.61 cent, or 0.4%, to $1.5070 a gallon.
Natural gas for June delivery gained 18.8 cents, or 4.4% to $4.490 per million British thermal units.
China imports
China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, increased its imports by 13.6% last month to 16.17 million metric tons, or 3.9 million barrels a day, the mainland's customs department said in an online statement Tuesday.
April's imports were still lower compared with the 16.34 million tons China bought from abroad in March, the highest in a year.
The country imports about half of its oil consumption, which stood at 7.8 million barrels a day, according to the International Energy Agency.
China is also buying oil to build its strategic reserve. The country is aiming to build an oil reserve that can meet 90 to 100 days of demand. Based on the current consumption level, that will put the reserve amount at about 780 million barrels.
The U.S.'s Strategic Petroleum Reserve currently holds 718.7 million barrels of oil, or about 40 days of consumption at the current demand level.
OPEC raises production
In other supply news, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, which controls about one-third of the world's oil supply, increased its production in April for the first month since August, 2008, according to a survey released on Tuesday by energy information provider Platts.
The 12-member cartel pumped an average 28.09 million barrels per day last month, according to the survey of OPEC members, oil industry officials and analysts. This is an increase of 110,000 barrels a day from March.
Production from the 11 OPEC members bound by quotas rose 130,000 barrels a day to 25.74 million barrels in April from 25.61 million barrels in March. Iraq does not participate in output agreements.
"It isn't surprising that as prices rise steadily, OPEC's adherence to its production restraints is weakening," said Platts global director of oil John Kingston.
The latest estimates leave the 11 OPEC members some 895,000 barrels a day in excess of their target, according to Platts. Compliance with the 4.2 million barrels a day cut agreed in December had risen to 81.79% in March but fell back to 78.69% in April
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