5% - 10% profit per day trading

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Regardless of whether you believe in the cycles or not, you need to trade with the trend, and quit trying to buy and sell spikes. Yes, that worked for a while, and it will work again, but it won't work consistently and eventually, you will get burned trading like that. Follow the trend and don't have a bias and you will be a better trader.
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The current price has something to do with normal Supply and Demand?

Demand in the US is DOWN.
The price is UP.

I guess that COULD be because of your cycle count.

Or could it be because of desperate governments who depend on selling energy that have a gun in one hand and the valve handle in the other. The result is a decision curve superimposed on cycles.

It looks like they REALLY want it around 50 and the money to be made will be fading the bounces.

But don't mind me. I know nothing.
 
Quote from truehawk:

The current price has something to do with normal Supply and Demand?

Demand in the US is DOWN.
The price is UP.

I guess that COULD be because of your cycle count.

Or could it be because of desperate governments who depend on selling energy that have a gun in one hand and the valve handle in the other. The result is a decision curve superimposed on cycles.

It looks like they REALLY want it around 50 and the money to be made will be fading the bounces.

But don't mind me. I know nothing.
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in my newbie mind, the current price is due to ABNORMAL supply and demand.

the abnormality is caused by two events.

one is the ever escalating conflict in palestine - yes that is not an oil producing region, however oil supplying regions (the majority of them), are emotionally attached to that conflict. how the oil nations and the hawkish nations amongst them will react to the conflict is uncertain and that uncertainity is driving prices up.

the second event is the aggressive stance taken by russia over gas. again not directly related to oil, but it is energy related in the end and is causing uncertainity in the end; which is driving prices up.


if these two events were taken out of the picture, then the lack of demand in the recession fuelled global economy would have resulted in an equilibrium price for oil.

so you are right, demand in the us is down and so's the case in most of the western world and in china and india as well; however this price rise is not down to demand now. its how macroeconomic events will affect supply.


my newbie two cents.
 
Key Crude Oil price factors as of today ...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-dips-below-49-on-weak-US-rb-13981865.html

1) Dealers said a fresh batch of gloomy economic data from the United States would make it tough for crude prices to make a sustained push through $50 a barrel.

"Resistance at the $50 area is going to be like $40 was before it. The economic data was not helpful (for crude prices), but the weak economic situation should be priced in and not something new," said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president at Macquarie Futures USA.

Data released Tuesday showed that pending sales of U.S. homes dropped in November to their lowest level in at least seven years and that the country's services sector shrank for the third consecutive month in December.


2) Fuel inventories are rising as demand slows. A report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration due on Wednesday is forecast to show that supplies of crude, distillates and gasoline increased last week.

3) Israel's recent incursion into Gaza, however, was seen as supportive. While the conflict does not directly threaten any oil supplies, unrest in the Middle East can bolster prices because countries in the region pump about a third of the world's oil.



4) Also adding support Tuesday, Russia's row with Ukraine over natural gas supplies triggered supply disruptions to parts of Europe, echoing a similar dispute three years ago that raised questions about Russia's reliability as an energy exporter.

5) Crude gains were also encouraged by news that Kuwait plans to cut oil supplies to U.S. and European buyers by 10 percent later this month, bringing the producer in line with OPEC targets. The nation also will cut supplies to Asian customers.
 
Quote from truehawk:

The current price has something to do with normal Supply and Demand?

Demand in the US is DOWN.
The price is UP.

I guess that COULD be because of your cycle count.

Or could it be because of desperate governments who depend on selling energy that have a gun in one hand and the valve handle in the other. The result is a decision curve superimposed on cycles.

It looks like they REALLY want it around 50 and the money to be made will be fading the bounces.

But don't mind me. I know nothing.
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Here's the thing.... Yes, there is something that is pushing the price up, but you and I will not really know why until it is way too late. Even Spanish with his news alert won't know the real reason until it's long, long too late. We small time traders will never know what the big commercial guys and even the funds know, because we don't have the knowledge or the dollars to get the type of information that they can get. Ultimately, the commerical guys move the market, and they know why, because they are the ones using the commodity.

What we as traders with limited knowledge must rely on is following the trend. Learning to read the price action and buying pullbacks during an uptrend, and selling pullbacks in a downtrend. It's a calculated gamble if the trend will continue, but it puts the odds on your side. Casinos operate the same way... they gamble and they lose too, but the odds are on their side, so at the end of the week or month, they always come out ahead due to those odds being in their favor.

One thing I have noticed in following the cycles. The cycle will call a turn and you can sometimes caculate it a week or two and even longer out some times. You'll watch prices undulate over that time period and then turn on a dime and shoot in the opposite direction. The cycle called for it to happen weeks prior, but the headlines will say this or that caused it, which I don't always believe. The news people get paid to deliver news, so they come up with the best story they can to match what happened. Unfortunately, too many people listen to them, but you and I will never know the real story until days, weeks and maybe even months later.

Guranteed, something is driving this bounce, and it could just be a short covering rally where we simply ran out of sellers. At some point, there is no one else to sell, so the buyers over take the sellers, and then other sellers become buyers to cover their position and it creates a huge reversal.

If you are interested in learning how to compute the cycles, go to this link and look for the book titled "Unlocking Wealth, secret to market timing". It's not hard once you grasp the principles, but you will have to spend some time studying the points and rereading them until you get it. Also, sometimes the cycles are very clear and easy to spot, but sometimes they are not and you just have to give up on those particular markets until the cycle does become more clear.

http://store.tradersnetwork.com/

I'll post a chart of the oil chart I was watching.
 
OK, here's a look at my oil chart for Feb 09. Notice the three arrows I drew... in a down trend, you calculate the reversals or cycles based off previous lows. In an uptrend, you calculate future reversals off past highs.

You get a daily bar count from low to low or high to high, then wait for the next high/low swing and then count forward that amount of bars. It's not as simple as just counting the bars though. You have to account for holidays and use high and low closes, and not necessarily high or low points. You will have to read the book and study it in depth to learn exactly how to do it, so this is only touching on the basics.

The long vertical line on my chart was my reversal projection, and I could have calculated it as early as Dec 2nd, and I think I did calculate it within a day or two of that date. I went ahead and placed that vertical line on Dec 24th somewhere around 12/2 or 12/3. So that's about 20 days prior to that date arriving.

The interesting part about this reversal date is that we had a second swing, and if you calculated off it, you also got 12/24, so there were two calculations giving me the same 12/24 reversal date. That's why I was saying there was a double confirmation or confluence on that date. Then the fact that we traded down into the reversal, that was the final warning that a bottom was probably in for at least a short term pull back.

Just to clarify it again. On the first swing, the black and red arrows, I counted from low to low, then counted forward from the next swing high and got 12/24 as the reversal date. I expected then that the major trend would continue down into that 12/24 date. But then we got a correction and second swing, and I again counted low to low, blue arrow to red arrow and then counted forward once more from the swing high. Again, I got a reversal date of 12/24. I felt fairly confident then that I should respect that date and cover on 12/24 before the closing.

Normally, if prices trade down into a reveral date, you look for a rally, or if prices trade up into that date, you expect them to turn down after the reversal date. Had prices actually traded up and closed higher on 12/24, then the bottom formation would have been questionable and I would wait for more confirmation with price action.

I also have a tool that makes it easy to count the days and holiday periods, so I can calculate the reversal dates in only a few moments, where if you don't have the tool, you have to spend a mintue counting bars and then making sure there were no trading holidays where the markets were colsed on regular trading days, and then projecting that count forward, again accounting for holidays. If you just want to count the bars, you can still get close, but it won't be exact if you don't account for days the market was closed during a regular trading day due to a holiday.

I still think it is very possible we will form a longer term reversal here, but we need a correction first to get a calculation, so no way to know how far it may go just yet. Also, I hope Spanish didn't mind my posting this, as it is not my intent to try and take over his journal or anything.
 

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Mccullek, I totally agree with you in the importance of trading with the trend, but detecting the trend using that method is so unreliable and subjective.

You probably got lucky detecting the trend by counting bars, because crude is seasonal and follows long term trends pretty well. ex: bottom in Dec-Jan peak in June-July. That technique would never work in none seasonal markets like S&P, EUR, Bonds, gold, etc.

The best and easiest way to detect the trend is to look at the moving average, and then find trade entries using support and resistance. It's simple and works in all markets.
 
Aloha Mcculleck

While i do agree with you that it is good to 'trade the trend',
i have a very strong view agaisnt what i call ''trend chasing''!! :mad:


And everyone in traidng always uses the word ''the trend'', like its just something that is a signpost saying ''all aboard for the trend go up, everyone who wants to go againts teh trend go down''! ;)


There is no such thing as ''the trend''.

There are many many intra day 'trends', or you could simply substitute the word trend for the word 'move'.



That is 1 of the reason why so soo many newbie traders lose so much money to start and just give up then, because of the old trading phrases and cliches like the word 'trend'.

*The trend has been down ever since the summer, but you could have only sold ever since the summer yet still lost money.

*And you coudl have actually 'only done long trades' and still made money all the way down.



I think if the word trend was substitued with the word 'moves' people who are learning how to trade would have alot more sucess.

As they would be much more agile then in 'trading the moves'.


Not just looking at screen and say 'Ok well its been down for the last 20mins and moved $1 down so now we are in a down trend so i will see quick when we get a pullback'.

Since that is simply 'trend chasing' / a form of momentum trading almost in my view,
and while it can sometimes work,
trying to do that everyday and consistently make money from that would be very hard and risky unless you had a stoploss of just a few ticks.



So instead of 'trading the trend', which is only actually being done if you are a swing trader who is getting into a trade and holding for a long trend movement of a few weeks+,
i think its much much safer and easier to just 'trade the moves'.



If the move is going downwards, then the intraday trend at that time is down, so if had got your sell in and catch that move you are 'trading a trend'. :)

But every single profitable trade you have made in your life can also be classed as 'trend trades'.
Since you only make money if your in the direction that the market moved.
And by moving in a direction, even if only for a very short time, that is a trend.


We could now get into the scientifcs and technicals of classifying how long a move has to last before its a trend not a pullback.... hehe :cool:

But il instead have a beer. lol
 
K i know that on occassion i have sounded like im trying to advertise Etx capital... :cool: lol

I have also said some bad stuff about them before.



But i just have to post here to really really commend how fair, responsive and decent they are being.. :)

I only emailed them at about 7pm asking if they could lower the crude oil monthly min stoplosses down from 100 t 40.

(Thought they may just ignore me, or at best may just write back saying that theythink 100s fair with volatility or fob me off by saying they would 'look into it' and then just delete my email) lol


But i checked my emails just now and they wrote back telling me that they will lower it to 40ticks from tomorrow!! :) :)
 

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for Wednesday tomorrow, here is the scenario for Oil prices
a) same level 48.40 b) or downword from this price level c) price upward

if you give equal chance of 1/3 for each , then for a) and b) together it is 2/3 chance that is 66.6%

Here are factors for a) same 48.40 level or b) downword prices

1) Isreal agreed for Humanitarion carridor
2) France and Egypt are working on soultions
3) US crude stokpiles are going to show increased stock piles


I feel I closed short bit early on RUssian news, waiting for short at 49.60

Quote from InvestVision:

Key Crude Oil price factors as of today ...

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Oil-dips-below-49-on-weak-US-rb-13981865.html

1) Dealers said a fresh batch of gloomy economic data from the United States would make it tough for crude prices to make a sustained push through $50 a barrel.

"Resistance at the $50 area is going to be like $40 was before it. The economic data was not helpful (for crude prices), but the weak economic situation should be priced in and not something new," said Nauman Barakat, senior vice president at Macquarie Futures USA.

Data released Tuesday showed that pending sales of U.S. homes dropped in November to their lowest level in at least seven years and that the country's services sector shrank for the third consecutive month in December.


2) Fuel inventories are rising as demand slows. A report from the U.S. Energy Information Administration due on Wednesday is forecast to show that supplies of crude, distillates and gasoline increased last week.

3) Israel's recent incursion into Gaza, however, was seen as supportive. While the conflict does not directly threaten any oil supplies, unrest in the Middle East can bolster prices because countries in the region pump about a third of the world's oil.



4) Also adding support Tuesday, Russia's row with Ukraine over natural gas supplies triggered supply disruptions to parts of Europe, echoing a similar dispute three years ago that raised questions about Russia's reliability as an energy exporter.

5) Crude gains were also encouraged by news that Kuwait plans to cut oil supplies to U.S. and European buyers by 10 percent later this month, bringing the producer in line with OPEC targets. The nation also will cut supplies to Asian customers.
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Quote from spanish89:

Aloha Mcculleck

While i do agree with you that it is good to 'trade the trend',
i have a very strong view agaisnt what i call ''trend chasing''!! :mad:


And everyone in traidng always uses the word ''the trend'', like its just something that is a signpost saying ''all aboard for the trend go up, everyone who wants to go againts teh trend go down''! ;)


There is no such thing as ''the trend''.

There are many many intra day 'trends', or you could simply substitute the word trend for the word 'move'.



That is 1 of the reason why so soo many newbie traders lose so much money to start and just give up then, because of the old trading phrases and cliches like the word 'trend'.

*The trend has been down ever since the summer, but you could have only sold ever since the summer yet still lost money.

*And you coudl have actually 'only done long trades' and still made money all the way down.



I think if the word trend was substitued with the word 'moves' people who are learning how to trade would have alot more sucess.

As they would be much more agile then in 'trading the moves'.


Not just looking at screen and say 'Ok well its been down for the last 20mins and moved $1 down so now we are in a down trend so i will see quick when we get a pullback'.

Since that is simply 'trend chasing' / a form of momentum trading almost in my view,
and while it can sometimes work,
trying to do that everyday and consistently make money from that would be very hard and risky unless you had a stoploss of just a few ticks.



So instead of 'trading the trend', which is only actually being done if you are a swing trader who is getting into a trade and holding for a long trend movement of a few weeks+,
i think its much much safer and easier to just 'trade the moves'.



If the move is going downwards, then the intraday trend at that time is down, so if had got your sell in and catch that move you are 'trading a trend'. :)

But every single profitable trade you have made in your life can also be classed as 'trend trades'.
Since you only make money if your in the direction that the market moved.
And by moving in a direction, even if only for a very short time, that is a trend.


We could now get into the scientifcs and technicals of classifying how long a move has to last before its a trend not a pullback.... hehe :cool:

But il instead have a beer. lol
More...

I agree, and also disagree with this. You have to determine the time frame you are trading, and then determine the trend on that time frame. You also have to know how to trade the trend following the price action, as you are correct, if you trade the trend and your timing is bad, you can lose money. It's an art and it has to be learned. Pick out a time frame on any chart and determine the direction, unless prices are range bound. If it's trending, you will see the direction and if it is down, you will notice that prices move down, then pull back some, then move down again, and then pull back, etc. You should be concentrating on trading that movmentn and learning where to enter and when to exit. Any entry is always a calcualated risk, but the idea is to stack the odds in your favor. That's where the cycles come in, they help you increase the odds in your favor.

Also, someone else stated that using cycles was not a good way to determine the trend, and I agree with that as well. You don't use cycles to determine the trend, just to warn you of time periods where you might expect a turn. That same person said you couldn't find cycles in other markets, but that' is completely untrue. You can find the cycles in any market, and bonds are one of the best.

I use it for all the futures and stocks too, and it works in all of them. Some cycles are easier to find than others, so if I can't find the cycle in oil, I go to the grains, or indexes, etc. Again, I know some of you simply won't believe it, and that's actually good because if everyone suddenly started trading them tomorrow, they probably would no longer work. :)

I've called turns in gold, silver, corn, beans, indexes, bonds and many others just like the one I called here in oil, so it's not a fluke. It's not 100%, so again, you don't trade them blindly. You wait for the price action to prove the turn first. Anyway, not trying to hijack this journal, so this will be my last post here on cycles unless I see one coming up and decide to post some calls on possible turns.

Also, just to show you it works in any market, here's a bean meal cycle I was watching recently. This one was also in a downtrend, so I counted back from the current low at the time, to the previous low(black arror to black arrow). There were 7 bars in the count. I waited for the high and then counted forward 7 bars and placed my vertical line. a few days later, prices traded down into that reversal period and look what happened. Count the low close to the low close and then do the forward count from the high close and see if it doesn't add up perfectly. This happens all the time in all markets, but you have to know what to look for and be able to find it. Knowing this reversal was coming a week ahead of time you could be prepared to take your profit on that big gap down day.
 

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