Not trying to say I told you so, but there was a clear cycle bottom that could be identified in oil 2 to 3 weeks prior to it happening. I had 12/24 noted on my chart 2 weeks prior and on Christmas even I placed a post indicating that there was a high probability that prices would bottom that day and start a new cycle. Not because I am some guru who thinks he can call market tops and bottoms, but because I learned how to read the chart and decipher the cycles. Like I said in that original post, "you can't trade blindly off these cycles, but they will alert you to the time period and then you should be watching the price action for confirmation".
Even then, you still have the problem of not knowing how far the move will go, but the indication was that it was highly likely to be a longer term bottom.
Regardless of whether you believe in the cycles or not, you need to trade with the trend, and quit trying to buy and sell spikes. Yes, that worked for a while, and it will work again, but it won't work consistently and eventually, you will get burned trading like that. Follow the trend and don't have a bias and you will be a better trader.
I haven't seen Dante Trader lately.... I think it was him that was willing to bet the world that we would see $25.00 before we saw $50.00 in oil. Anyone can get lucky, but no one can constitently call tops and bottoms... it's not possible. This is not a knock on you either TD, but if your brave enough to talk the talk, you have to be willing to take the lumps if your wrong. The best traders don't try and call tops and bottoms. They trade the trend and follow the price action, simple as that. If you learn to read the cycles, you can get an idea of when and where to expect turns. No, it won't happen every time, because there are cycles within cycles, but if you find the cycle count, and it's always there, then watch the price action for clues, you know when to exit and expect trends to end and start. If you get married to a long trend, you may make a bundle, but at some point, that trend will always end and then you are married to it and biased by it and the turn will make no sense to you and you will fight it and most likely, give all your profits back, plus some.
Again, I'm not the expert trying to tell anyone how to trade, just sharing a few years of experience that I learned in the trenches making those same mistakes and getting those same hard knocks. Learn to trade with the trend and use responsible stops. Better to take a dozen small stops than to take one or two monsters that wipe you out. Smart traders are not afraid to take a stop and have a losing trade. They are a necessary evil in order to be a profitable trader.
Good luck and good trades to all in the 2009 trading year!
