3 to 1 win/loss ? Don't think so.

Quote from Magna:

Paul,

I wish you well on your quest. Using your numbers of avg 3 trades daily (yielding approx 700 per year), with your 6 pt target and 3 pt stop (to give the 2:1 R/R) and 75% hit rate here's what I came up with. That's 525 winners for 3150 pts, 175 losers for -525 pts, or 2625 pts net. Times $50 and you get $131,250 per ES contract. Wow. I admire a man with dreams....

Good luck.
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Magna,

I appreciate that at best your heart is really in the right place and that you are trying to instill realism into my goals.

Or that at worst, you are being pretty sarcastic and are a naysayer. I choose to believe the former at this time.

However, consider this: What if I could actually do it? Or could manage it 6 months out of 12? Or even three months out of 12? How much would that add to my bottom line? Even if the other 9 months were only 50% hit and 1.5/1 RtR, it would still be great.

Who is interested in shooting for low goals? Not me. I'd rather shoot for the moon and at least hit the clouds. This IMO is the way to maximum progress. The reality will be in my trade log/stats. If I find out that it was unrealistic, I'll adjust. But that will be based on facts, not anyone else's opinions or limitations.

I wonder how many people told Tiger Woods "it's not realistic for a little guy like you to hit the ball that far"?

Do you think Mark McGuire cared that people doubted he could break the home run record?

I know for a fact that the Wright Brothers were told many, many times that powered human flight was impossible (I read a biography once). People "proved" it to them all the time with math and theorums. Good thing they didn't listen, huh?

People have made snide comments on this site that I'm full of "yadda yadda yadda" but you know what? I don't care. Because I make it a point never to allow someone else to impose limitations on my life.

Because for me, the ultimate failure is to not even try.

Respecfully,

Paul
 
Well said Paul, the only limitations we have are all self imposed.

"Can't never could, could he"

When are you going to start a journal?

That's the question we should be asking ourselves, "What limiting beliefs are holding me back?"

Thanks for the food for thought.

regards,
'
Bruce Hawkins
 
Concerning this comment

<QUOTE>
"Who is interested in shooting for low goals? Not me. I'd rather shoot for the moon and at least hit the clouds. This IMO is the way to maximum progress. The reality will be in my trade log/stats. If I find out that it was unrealistic, I'll adjust. But that will be based on facts, not anyone else's opinions or limitations"
<END QUOTE>

I think it is a question of efficiency that would spell success.

Question: Who is better? The trader who has a 50% win rate at a 1.5 w/l Ratio or the trader who has a 60% win rate with a 1.25 w/l ratio?

To make more money just increase the contracts or apply one of these betting stratigies. At the end of the year you can make the same.

Also frequency of trade is also a factor to consider if you are measuring annual income. A setup that presents itself more often with smaller numbers may or may not work, but risk to reward ratio's change according to the type of set up and expectancy.

Also these low range day's we have been experiencing in the SP has collapsed many time honored working systems. So what works today may not work tomorrow and vice versa.

I am throwing a lot of topics to the wind here and excuse me...I do not have the answers as I struggle just to quickly change with the character of the market in time to remain profitable. Here recently, I have been connected with some really good traders which have inspired me to research more. I feel that I am finally ahead of the game for now....and trying to stay nimble to sense the upcoming character change of the market...whatever and whenever it may be. I am a full-time ES trader and fid just this one instrument to be challenging enough to hold my interest. They say practice makes perfect...well for 2 years all I have been doing is trading one instrument...day in and day out.

Michael B.
 
Quote from Tonkadad:

Well said Paul, the only limitations we have are all self imposed.

"Can't never could, could he"

When are you going to start a journal?

That's the question we should be asking ourselves, "What limiting beliefs are holding me back?"

Thanks for the food for thought.

regards,
'
Bruce Hawkins
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Hello Bruce,

Thank you for getting the gist of my post. There has been too much negativity around here lately.

My only agenda in professing these beliefs is the hope of helping others to keep their eye on the prize, as other people have done for me since I started trading. There is nothing else in it for me or anyone else. Except maybe some therapeutic value for me, I suppose.

Hopefully I don't come across as too arrogant because that is not my intent. I still have plenty to learn and I may be proved wrong on this one. But not for lack of trying.

I don't feel it necessary to post a journal at this time because I really don't see the value in it for me. People seem to do so either because they really want feedback so they can overcome problems or to gratify their ego/show off - I don't fit either category at the moment. I just want others to know it is possible to make it.

With the help and guidance of a much more experienced trader I have developed a good Plan, along with Trade Logs and a Daily Inventory Sheet to track my progress (particularly my ability to execute according to plan - my weak link) - it takes considerable time to screenshot/notate each entry/exit, document the trades as I make them, review them at days end (and weekly) and track my stats - so it seems that a journal would be redundant.

I need these tools because I am somewhat new to trading and it keeps me focused and on target. Before I used them I was more or less floundering around.

Now I'm still making mistakes but not the same chronic ones that were bleeding me. And the days that I execute perfectly are the days I hit my target #'s, both in hit rate and RtR.

The days that I don't execute acccording to Plan, I still bleed.

Regards,

Paul
 
Quote from ElectricSavant:



I think it is a question of efficiency that would spell success.

Also these low range day's we have been experiencing in the SP has collapsed many time honored working systems. So what works today may not work tomorrow and vice versa.

I am throwing a lot of topics to the wind here and excuse me...I do not have the answers as I struggle just to quickly change with the character of the market in time to remain profitable. Here recently, I have been connected with some really good traders which have inspired me to research more. I feel that I am finally ahead of the game for now....and trying to stay nimble to sense the upcoming character change of the market...whatever and whenever it may be.

Michael B.
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Total agreement here. Standing ready to try something else the moment that what I'm doing is not working any more.

Regards,

Paul
 
"Who is better? The trader who has a 50% win rate at a 1.5 w/l Ratio or the trader who has a 60% win rate with a 1.25 w/l ratio?"

The answer is that neither one will ever amount to anything, unless they learn to be more selective in their trades and increase their risk/reward.

Its a hard cold stock market. Every newbie thinks "I'm different" , or "things are different now", don't fall for that kind of thinking, its a trap. The higher your risk/reward the better off you are, the reason people compromise on this point is simply so that they have something to do everyday and get that "fix", however this has nothing to do with making money.
 
Quote from momoNY:



In the TA of S&C of this month, in an interview with Garry Smith, he was talking about 65%-70% (more 70%) win/loss ratio. Does that mean that he is a super hyper xxper technician :D
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That interview was from a couple of years ago. I wonder if he's still hitting that ratio?
 
I do discretionary trades based on patterns and S&R, not mechanical, but close.

48% winners, 2.2 ratio.

I use one time frame for identifying the setup then look to a smaller time for the actual entry. However, stop and target are both based on the original, higher time frame.

Also, I look at multiple time-frames for additional clues.

Sometimes I use one 'set' of time frames in the morning and another in the afternoon, based on the action, but once in a trade I stay with that time frame.
 
Quote from tradersaavy:

Is anyone interested in my initial post for this thread ? There seems to be a LITTLE side chatter going on.

Thanks.
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Sorry, I thought we were discussing hit rates and RtR.

What specifically would you like to discuss, then?

Happy to comply.

Sincerely,

Paul
 
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