Quote from tradersaavy:
I've been daytrading futures now for about 3 months and there seems to be one major problem. I can recognize patterns, but there does not seem to exist often enough, a pattern with a 3 to 1 win/loss. The stops seem to be too wide and they seldom move 3 times these wide stops. So, I've been going to a 1m time frame to find tighter stops and, of course now I'm stopped out all of the time because the stop is toooooo tight and then the pattern takes off back into a favorable direction. I'll post some charts in a short while, I just wanted to see if anyone was interested in this thought or had some charts to post to show me the light.
I have several patterns that exist and generally offer 3:1 RtR. But the biggest problem, and especially lately, is that if you trail stops you will likely not get the target exit.
For example if you go long NQ at 987 with a stop at 983 and have a target of 1000 on a specific setup. Once the price gets above say 991, if you move your stop you are very likely to get stopped prior to target.
The only way I can consistently actually exit at a 3:1 target is to institute a "target or stop" mentaility from entry. Problem with this is in a choppy market you may have some decent gains of 5-10 points turn into b/e even trades.
Bottom line is it is tough to actually attain a 3:1 trade even though the setups are there for them. Best thing you can do is have general rules for when and how to exit a trade and consistently take setups where the initial target and stop give you best case scenario.
Meaning enter the setups that offer a 3:1 opportunity but feel free to exit with good profits if it is not living up to expectations of trade ( not moving fast enough, acting toppy at resistance, ect.). Often after some experience you can almost tell the ones that will run and the ones that wont.
Good thread
Allen Z
