2014: The Battle for Survival

neke said:
Period Update 11/04/2016 - 4/01/2017
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Well since I have processed the pains of November 2016, and the loss of more than half my account, here is in summary my monthly performance including that period.


Code: 
Starting Balance: 275,597
Start Date  End Date      P/L      Withrawal  Closing Balance
11/05/2016  12/03/2016   -143948  -3500       128,149
12/03/2016  12/31/2016   -5012     0          123,137
12/31/2016  02/04/2017   -20950   -6500        95,687
02/04/2017  03/04/2017    12058   -3000       104,745
03/04/2017  04/01/2017    7159     0          111,904

So yes, it has been a gruesome four months trying to cut off all discretion from my trading, enforce rules, and put a good distance between me and the trades. I would attribute the first two months losses (Dec/Jan) to continuation of lack of clarity on the changes I wanted to put in place. Subsequently, as the rules became more defined and enforced, I believe I am on the path to enforcing a new style/discipline of trading. Size is down, volatility should hopefully be lower and the path to recovery longer. I have accepted this, and want to move on.

Next update would be in 3 months time. Still not in a position to give monthly feedback.
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From what I can tell about your strategies, I can see how the last 4 months weren't very profitable. The market cadence changed after the election.
 
Period Update 4/01/2017 - 7/01/2017
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Slow and steady work on my recovery effort. First month of the quarter was great, followed by small losses the last couple of months. Still operating with extreme caution, and adhering to permissible trades. The number of trades done is reduced as a result. Each time I miss a 'great trade' I keep trying to figure out how to determine rules that would allow such a trade in future without opening the flood gates to discretionary trades. That is an ongoing work that I keep figuring out and programming.

Code: 
For 2017

Starting Balance: 123,137
Start Date  End Date     P/L    Withrawal  Closing Balance
2017-01-01  2017-02-04  -20950   -6500        95,687
2017-02-04  2017-03-04   12058   -3000       104,745
2017-03-04  2017-04-01   7159     0          111,904 
2017-04-01  2017-05-06   14812   -2500       124,216
2017-05-06  2017-06-03  -1994     0          122,222
2017-06-03  2017-07-01  -823     -2500       118,899
Next update will be in 3 months.
 
neke said:
erratic discretionary. Doubling down until wiped out
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You're not alone. Many do this, although most cannot admit it, and end up blowing out their accounts. It's a learning process. Pat yourself on the back for recognizing it before complete blowup.

Slow and steady wins the race. Speaking from personal experience, I tried the rabbit approach and now back in corporate America because of it. Luckily I don't need to trade to live so the pressure is off to sprint.
 
The problem is not discretionary trading. The problem is cognitive and a lack of skill to psychologically detach oneself from a trade. Traders that fail at discretionary trading fail because of the above. Discretionary trading is much more powerful that mechanical trading. Its ability to adapt on the fly and see what math models cannot see is a very strong point for becoming a good discretionary trader. Even the best mechanical system will work for a bit then fail. Discretionary trading keeps hammering along adapting on the fly. But the ability to detach oneself from the trade, and the money, and trade the process focusing only on the moment, is a very hard thing to learn. And a hard skill to develop.
 
volpri said:
The problem is not discretionary trading. The problem is cognitive and a lack of skill to psychologically detach oneself from a trade...a hard skill to develop.
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Bingo. Takes years and drawdowns for most to develop. It's not easy but once you do, the account grows steadily with spurts here and there. However, always need to keep your guard up.
 
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