That is being overly optimistic. I am starting from "ground zero" in my trading now. Confidence is low, size very low - number of trades vastly reduced and strict rules being enforced, while taking out about 3.5K each month. Outlook does not look very bright at the moment.
2014: The Battle for Survival
- Thread starter neke
- Start date
Automate your edge.
Thank you for sharing this. At this point, after having followed you for a longer period of time, I would say maybe you need an accountability partner. I guess you enter most your trades at work but maybe you have someone, preferably a woman as they are on average more vigilant on risk management, who has access to your broker statements and can at least get to you shortly after such doubling down happens. Obviously this won't prevent you from taking the trades in the first place but it is a first right step imho. Your calling it compulsive is the point here. Admitting one needs help with certain things in life is the step in the right direction. Whatever breaks this compulsive behavior is what you should seek.
You are taking out $40K a year..
Someone else posted saying you said you paid 300K in commission a year over a 5 year period. ie about 60k a year.
So a total of $100K in gross trading profits was needed to keep your account balance break even! That is a tough hurdle.
You say you lost 42K in 2016, that was probably all or almost all commissions right?
I only pay around $10K to $20K in futures commissions at the moment. I used to pay much more but have cut my trading down to mostly high conviction/expectancy trades and also some medium expectancy trades (because high expectancy trades are quite rare). But i no longer take any low expectancy trades.
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We already advised this at least a year ago. He says the strict rules are being enforced now, but
I don't believe him. I think he already said this a year ago...
I actually have a new idea. I understand the stock trades were profitable this year, but after reading the CRAY fiasco at the beginning of the journal:
What if Neke also writes calls (or puts if shorting) on the stock he trades? Sure it limits profits but it also helps when the stock goes in the "wrong" direction.
So Neke, have you looked at covered calls and covered puts? Assuming you actually hold the stocks for 1-2 weeks at least...
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Any experienced trader should let other traders make their own decisions. Meddling in others' trading decisions is, at least in professional circles, highly unwelcome. I am sure Neke has given his approach and style a lot of thought. I do not think it is wise to recommend others to change their trading approach. It was their decision which route to take. In my opinion at least the limit is a recommendation of ideas that help re-enforce the existing and practiced approach. Hence my recommending someone to look over his shoulders and holding him accountable. I at least would never take the right to judge his approach from being wrong, especially to a guy who has faithfully and honestly posted on this monkey site for years. Neke had spectacular runs to the upside and the spectating crowed cheered him as being their new hero. So, something he is doing must be right. Reinforcing what he is doing right and helping to omit the mistakes is where the limits of advice lie as far as I am concerned. Over and out.
Slight correction I must....
He had been right. Up to 2 years ago. Not since...Big difference! Just because you have been long of tech stocks in the late 90s... You get my point.
The reason why we are trying to give him advice is because it has not OBVIOUSLY been working for him anymore, be it the original strategy or not sticking to the rules or lack of automation. If he or his fanboys don't like it, tough luck, that is why ET exists, to exchange ideas, to discuss problems and trying to help each other.
Now you might be right that my advice doesn't particularly help him, but he is in a pretty desperate state and every little thing could help. Although he isn't very good at listening to advice....
It is also possible that his edge is gone...
He had been right. Up to 2 years ago. Not since...Big difference! Just because you have been long of tech stocks in the late 90s... You get my point.
The reason why we are trying to give him advice is because it has not OBVIOUSLY been working for him anymore, be it the original strategy or not sticking to the rules or lack of automation. If he or his fanboys don't like it, tough luck, that is why ET exists, to exchange ideas, to discuss problems and trying to help each other.
Now you might be right that my advice doesn't particularly help him, but he is in a pretty desperate state and every little thing could help. Although he isn't very good at listening to advice....
It is also possible that his edge is gone...
you think he would not know something is not working? It is directly reflected in his p&l, he is the first to know. I think he is a much better mental state than most anyone on this site, he sat through some ugly losses and still carried on. Well, you get the point, I at least in general refrain from giving people direct trading advice unless it is a total newbie and he/she asks for hand-holding and even then I only offer advice when I get the impression that person has the willingness and ability to take and implement advice.
You're right. The commissions for the year was 44,734 on 316 option trades and 392 stock trades. Target this year would be 100 option trades and 240 stock trades. Ideally would not like to pay more than 10-15K in commissions.
