2012: The Battle for Survival

[Deadwood]

Simply put, Neke is a gambler not a trader and a piss poor one at that. Reading through this thread some I find that Neke doesn't even know how to keep score or what metrics to use. Money mgmt is non existant.

For anyone reading this thread who is looking for ideas on how to be a better trader:

Set a r:r ratio of at least 2:1. Don't even take a trade if that's not doable. Believe me, you'll need some 5-10:1 winners over the year to make money. But at 2:1 you only need to be right 1/3 of the time to break even. As you can see from Neke, breaking even isn't such a bad thing.

 

[tenthousandmen]

Quote from HurricaneUS:

here we go again.................

Quote from Humpy:

Either :-

1. You are getting worse at trading due to
a. old age
b. carelessness
c. other comitments
d. boredom
e. some other reason

2. The competition is improving faster than you
a. improving computer EAs
b.fewer mugs and amateurs
c. other

know thy self brother and your limitations

(from..end of last year)

 

[oraclewizard77]

I think you could work on automating a successful manual system. If you have successful manual trades but you double down on your losing trades, and are able to automate the winning trades and have basically an automated stop loss for your losing trades, then automation makes sense.

If you can't define a positive profitable setup, then automation will not solve your problems.

One can have an equal risk vs reward if you have more winners than losers. However, you would need to keep your losing trades from being double your winning trades.

If you notice that your winning trades continue to go on to higher profits without reducing your win% then you can for example have a 1.5 reward to 1 risk. It all depends on your win%, which you should be able to calculate either in excel or a print out from your broker.

 

[ocean5]

I wonder how he`s made his money,was it by chance and now he`s just gambling?

 

[neke]

Quote from Millionaire:

Neke's weekly P&L so far for 2012:

Week 1: (14,450)
Week 2: 8,860
Week 3: (3,770)
Week 4: 2,303
Week 5: 7,631
Week 6: (14,717)
Week 7: 5,132
Week 8: 9,163
Week 9: 14,371
Week 10: (4,817)
Week 11: (19,458)
Week 12: 150


Good to see more winning weeks than losing ones.

We need to see more 14K+ winning weeks too.

You might want to revise week6 to read (15,291). I guess you picked the cummulative P/L

 

[neke]

Quote from glassinc:

This is the way Neke wants it, so nothings changed here and no surprise.

Neke you say you want to look at this as an isolated incident and not the norm. Yet it is the norm and not an isolated incident, therefore the continued drawdown.

You are not addressing the issues that have you in this repetitive loop of a couple to a few weeks of gains, that are negated by a week or two of losses. This is now in the 1st qtr of the 3rd year! Open your mind and examine the thoughts, beliefs, and values that are defining your results.

The best predictor of the future is past behavior. Since you're not changing your behavior, expect more of the same results of the recent past.

None of us can solve our problems with the same mind that created them, which is what you're trying to do.

SO where do you get the change of mind to address your problem (your last statement)? The good thing about being involved with the market is you are able to see those weaknesses and take steps as they happen. Of course when I have a losing week, it appears I am doing nothing to change the downdraft, but I am, and am positive there will be light at the end of the tunnel. I have taken some steps before ( and perhaps atimes set them aside) like these within the last one year:

1) Take only one discretionary trade a day. (yes I set that aside after some weeks of gains)
2) Auto-close positions that exceed the maximum permitted for the strategy
3) Auto-cose disallowed strategies (these are strategies I have found have been net losers for a long time)
4) Close positions that are averaging down on losing positions
5) Limit discretionary trades to one for the day - if not already done - if at any time during the day the account is down by 2K for the day (just implemented).
6) Set target for the month at the start thereof and maximum position size based on comfort level, that should last for the month (just implemented). At the end of the month, if target is exceeded, may increase size a notch for the following month. If not exceeded, but positive, retain the same size (%). If negative size down for following month.

It is only by trading I get to find out those weak points and take steps to close them. Taking time off does not magically bring the right discipline - to be disciplined you have to define precisely what needs to be done first. The last step above will ensure that if things keep going bad, the size will keep going down, until for all practical purposes it might be considered cessation of trading.

 

[macintash]

Position size is one thing, but there is 1 basic question. When you enter a trade do you have a solid reason why you think the trade would be profitable? Did you backtest it? Do you have a an exit strategy once it hits a profit target or loss? Are you sticking to your plans? Bottom line, Limiting size would save you from blowing up, but wouldn't make you more profitable.

Quote from neke:

1) Take only one discretionary trade a day. (yes I set that aside after some weeks of gains)
2) Auto-close positions that exceed the maximum permitted for the strategy
3) Auto-cose disallowed strategies (these are strategies I have found have been net losers for a long time)
4) Close positions that are averaging down on losing positions
5) Limit discretionary trades to one for the day - if not already done - if at any time during the day the account is down by 2K for the day (just implemented).
6) Set target for the month at the start thereof and maximum position size based on comfort level, that should last for the month (just implemented). At the end of the month, if target is exceeded, may increase size a notch for the following month. If not exceeded, but positive, retain the same size (%). If negative size down for following month.

It is only by trading I get to find out those weak points and take steps to close them. Taking time off does not magically bring the right discipline - to be disciplined you have to define precisely what needs to be done first. The last step above will ensure that if things keep going bad, the size will keep going down, until for all practical purposes it might be considered cessation of trading.

 

[Riffraffpatrol]

Quote from macintash:

Position size is one thing, but there is 1 basic question. When you enter a trade do you have a solid reason why you think the trade would be profitable? Did you backtest it? Do you have a an exit strategy once it hits a profit target or loss? Are you sticking to your plans? Bottom line, Limiting size would save you from blowing up, but wouldn't make you more profitable.

Neke is misguided in his "position sizing". Position sizing for 1R is everything in this game...and to date Neke ignores it.

Neke-- your adjustments are all moot. If u dont minimize losses thru a method to keep them constant, you will be doomed to fail...only a mattrr of time.

 

[flipside21]

Quote from Riffraffpatrol:

Neke is misguided in his "position sizing". Position sizing for 1R is everything in this game...and to date Neke ignores it.

Neke-- your adjustments are all moot. If u dont minimize losses thru a method to keep them constant, you will be doomed to fail...only a mattrr of time.

In other words, for position sizing there is no such thing as high conviction, medium conviction, or low conviction trades. You should be taking the same risk every trade.

 

[tenthousandmen]

Quote from flipside21:

In other words, for position sizing there is no such thing as high conviction, medium conviction, or low conviction trades. You should be taking the same risk every trade.

yes yes yes


neke, also, automated strategies will be very difficult. Anyone who has been around for awhile knows just how hard it is. Discretionary is the only game when it comes to profits for non math or finance experts. If you try to make a system with the default indicators, youll just throw away time. It will not happen. Ask some expert automated traders to get some quick insight . Just my $.02 that I hope helps.