2012: The Battle for Survival

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Quick observation. Neke's losing streak started with cannonballing on BIDU in Jan 2010.

I'm shocked he bought $147,300 worth of put options (as well as shorting $108,000 worth of shares) with a $410,000 account. The put option position represented 35.9% of his account, which is a lot. With a $410,000 account size, an ideal 5% risk = a $20,500 position. If he's risking over 1/3 his bankroll on option trades, the ultimate risk of ruin seems very high.

I'm terrible at cutting losses, so the only way to limit risk is to limit the position size.
 
Quote from glassinc:

Even a systematic approach is defined in part by discretion. The two do not exist completely independent of one another. They are linked by what we believe about the machinations of the market, and the psychological tendencies of the participants.

+++

One of the most famous (and successful) system traders of all time once said "I will not trade anything unless I can put its long term chart across a room and see a trend"

He also said he was a trend follower who used pattern recognition, and that his dad once taught him to "buy when price breaks out of a box and sell when it falls thru a box".......

..... Quite the discretionary qualifiers for arming the algos.
 
So let me get this straight -- you think a 2 year draw down (and counting) is what a career track record for a solid trader who knows what hes doing looks like? :D with all your emotion, I bet you are not consistent and profitable.

Let me present it to you differently: with all the sincerity and what not that you keep boasting about Neke, would you let him trade your account? Maybe you're now realizing for the first time in a long time what really counts in this game.


Go look at the past posts. His equity curve is horrendous. With the withdrawals, and a conservative estimate of how much Neke will lose, he has until second quarter 2013 before he has less than three digits in his account. (Remember what that looked like for you back then?)


Apologizes for being a tough spectator, however Blow has a great post. Maybe you don't like his attitude elsewhere, but that doesn't take away from his real experiences and thoughts.
Quote from 2steps:

You have a dark mind. You are evil. And you are lying to cover it up.

you are enjoying someone else's failures, just like many of the posters who popped up after Neke posted a loss. Everytime Neke posted a loss, you posted a long rambling incoherent babbling bullshit post. You must enjoy Neke's loss tremendously.

When Neke posted a proft, these same posters became quiet. They were seeing no show, no disaster, no misery, nothing that would make them happy.

In the busineess of news, it says: if it bleeds, it leads. The audience lovers death, conflict, war, misery, murder, robbery, all negative things that put others in sufferings. It is known that people love to enjoy others' misery. You, my beau, is one of those evil souls.

You are also stupid, because you think we don't know this fact that you are enjoying Neke's misery.

Ask youself which of the following two news stories gets your attention:

1. "Mr. Jones is happy at home, nothing bad has happened to him."

2. "Mr. Jones was murdered at 3am this morning, his daughter was raped by three black teenagers!"

Be honest with yourself, beau. You may not realize you are evil.:D :D

Anyone who has doubts about my comment, read beau's post in this thread, he really enjoyed others' failures (this one was imagined by beau):

"Kind of curious, but most likely he failed because the very last post in this thread shows he turned to gambling and ignored wagering methods, including risk management and strategy development, discard the sd thinking gambling was a better alternative than programming a computer to do his work.

No, this thread is a clear failure from the last post quoted by the OP, because he stopped modelling, and probably blew out."
http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=31837&perpage=6&pagenumber=14
:D
 
Quote from d08:

That is human nature, actually it's seen all across the animal kingdom. When someone else is more successful than you, that means they'll create more demand for resources - leaving less for others (including you). While this doesn't necessarily mean we want others to crash and burn always, we certainly don't want them to do better than us either. There's nothing wrong with that, it's entirely natural. We're not children here, there isn't enough to go around for everyone. I oversimplified but the logic is valid.
End of my off-topic rant.
Well you have to admit he's been losing money now for what, 3 straight years.

In an IQ test often an unsolvable puzzle is given just see how long you will work on it. (longer = lower score)
If he's really been trying to change things up it isn't working :at what point do you rationally throw in the towel?


I want to know because if I'm faced with that situation hopefully I'll do the right thing, change or quit.
 
Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

Well you have to admit he's been losing money now for what, 3 straight years.

In an IQ test often an unsolvable puzzle is given just see how long you will work on it. (longer = lower score)
If he's really been trying to change things up it isn't working :at what point do you rationally throw in the towel?


I want to know because if I'm faced with that situation hopefully I'll do the right thing, change or quit.

I sometimes find myself changing out of boredom. The one think I've learned to never change is low risk setups. The downside risk is always minimized.
 
Quote from bwolinsky:

I tried looking for the commercial where the dog stops the guy from making a stock trade that would have lost his family's future, including their kids college fund, vacation, and other things.

This feels like that situation, and I couldn't find it on youtube or else I would have posted it. I guess I don't remember who the commercial was wrote by, but neke needs to get one thing straight: he has no edge.

If you are not realizing by now that backtesting in strategy desk is nothing but curve fitting, I can see why he's losing money because his indicators are not robust to last past the first 3 minutes of walk forward testing. If there was a real edge here, he wouldn't be losing weekly hardly at all, but he's convinced himself to stay on with them despite overwhelming evidence that it has changed the course of his life, and I don't like having to appear spiteful or say I told you so because I've been conveying that same advice on his journals for 3 threads now.

Neke, seriously, just show us your performance summaries. If you're day trading 1.3-1.6 is good PF. If you're swing weekly trading, 2+ is the minimum acceptable for 10% volatility, and if you don't want to show us your backtests that's just foolish. Did it ever cross your mind that some of us really want to help you, and gambling is not the answer. Though you may say you trade systematically this is not a robust system, and if your strategies aren't winning 70+% of the time on their swing trades, or 60% of the time on day trades, it's doomed to fail. Even after paying taxes there's no question you haven't made any money at all and should have stopped when you hit $100,000 and walked away and gave it to a pro.

Trading like this is gambling, and I've always noticed when he used to post his trades the sheer randomness of what he was doing trading nonsensical watchlists with no place in anybody's portfolio but as another security to gamble on and feed the trading addiction.

You know, until there's something that wins 80% of the time you can leverage up on that every once in a while, but options trading like this has too much cost and slippage, not to mention the trades aren't profitable but assuming your research says they are then whatever indicators you're using are not robust.

Neke, seriously, tell us what indicator's you're using. Not the whole system. I could go on and on about what works and doesn't work but I'm aware of what works and you aren't yet. Throwing money away like this is not going to solve anybody's problems, and, please, if you hit $120k just walk away, because you've drawn down at that point 80%, which means you don't know what you're doing, and at 60% that's also a stopping point for me.

Don't say we didn't tell you this years ago when you were above $500k and knew you were gambling then like you're gambling now, and, now, you can't even afford to lose it! Seriously, I realize you like to brag about how it was $5k then $70k then $400k and I'm going for $4 million but you blew up and now you have to face that because there are professional traders with an eye for what works and what doesn't. Just by the results I can see it doesn't work, and I know it's because you still see it as a large enough profit that if I keep betting I might make it back to $450k and leave but that's a symptom of trading gambling addiction, neke.

So listen, I've followed you since 2008 and all through the threads I saw you picking a basket of stocks with too large a watchlist, and I bet you're still doing it. Pick a correlated index like the NASDAQ 100 and day or swing trade, but quit with the watchlists over 500 symbols. Just because strategy desk can do that doesn't mean you should. Right now you've probably paid as much money as you have to your broker, and that's ridiculous. I hope you'll consider walking away at $120's, I also think you should see a trading psychotherapist to determine if this is an addiction or not, because all signs throughout these threads including all the messages you've ignored trying to get you to explain yourself are a symptom of denial and indicates addiction to trading gambling.

Please see someone about your addiction, and know when to fold 'em.

Bwolinsky, 99% of what you write is pure crap but on this one I give you a......

+1
 
Quote from PHOENIX TRADING:

I think this thread and it's predecessors illuminate how hard it is to differentiate luck and skill at trading.

If one were to look at just the first few years you would swear it was skill but now I hate to say it but , it looks like it was all just luck.


+1

One of the main issues with trading in general is that it is very hard to determine whether its luck/chance or a genuine skill (edge) that has given one successful results.

Kind of makes it impossible to define the often talked about 'consistently profitable trader'.

Over a long enough time line, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero...

Good luck though, Neke. Balls of steel to keep the journals running during this difficult draw-down.
 
This thread is interesting just to see how a trader deals with the ups and downs. But as his account size gets smaller and smaller, there is much less excitement here. I want to see those +/- 50K weeks, not +/- 5K. With a shrunken account size, the thrills are missing from this thread!

neke, stop withdrawing money and max out your leverage and amp it up for us. We want action, baby! :D
 
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