Quote from Ghost of Cutten:
The only person who can defeat Obama is an assassin, or (much less likely) someone who comes totally out of left field. Ron Paul, Sarah Palin, Romney, and all other likely candidates at this point will be defeated easily.
Recognising that Obama will win is no different to recognising that we are in a bull market in stocks. For those with the talent, it's as clear as daylight. For those without, they are continually baffled and can't understand why they keep getting it wrong.
By the 2012 election the recession will be 3 years away and the S&P will quite possibly be touching on, or at, new all-time highs. There will be no reason to rock the boat, because things will be a bit better than they are now, and a lot better than they were in 2008. Furthermore, Obama has far superior oratorical abilities than any of his opponents, so he will sway floating voters (the only ones that matter) much more easily in the runup to election.
If a crisis occurs, few are better than at Obama at spinning crises to his advantage. He has decent leadership skills and the ability to resolve conflicting groups and opponents to get a compromise solution, as shown by the BP fiasco, the beer summit, and other minor but telling events. He knows how to appeal to the mob and channel their emotions. He has drifted towards the centre, since he is a pragmatist not an ideologue, just as I predicted in 2008, 2009, and 2010. He is pretty much a teflon candidate, a bit like Tony Blair or Bill Clinton, but without the Iraq war or Lewinsky blunders that gave those two such problems. Despite all the problems in US society at present, intrade has him slowly uptrending to a 60% chance of winning (still a screaming buy). Even at the height of Tea Party mania, and the mid-term dip, he barely dipped below evens.
Even a very strong candidate would have a tough battle trying to unseat a sitting president with such poll resilience, 3 years into an economic expansion. The current crop of candidates are mediocre and undistinguished at best. They have almost no chance at all. Ron Paul has the charisma of a wet fish, despite being much more correct on policies. The President doesn't set policies, Congress does that, and the people correctly require charisma and leadership skills in a President, two thing that Ron Paul doesn't have.
