2011: Rebuilding My Battered Account

Status
Not open for further replies.
Do you really believe anyone and I mean anyone at all will - eeh, let me get this right - week after week continue to rack up huge consecutive losses and appear as if he doesn't have a care in world about the humongous losses?

Even Central Banks with virtually unlimited buying power would check mounting losses at some point.

Judging by his posts Neke is rather well informed & very unlikely to be on a negative equity curve.

Enjoy:D
 
"Naked came I out of my mother's womb, and naked shall I return thither: the Lord gave, and the Lord hath taken away; blessed be the name of the Lord."

Job 1:21
 
Quote from neke:

I need to cut-off the contrarian, and do more of momentum (trend).

Will be shutting down all manual contrarian strategies, and sizing down on the automated ones even further while I explore other possibilities.


--- Quote from Businessman (08-21-11):
Mean reversion/counter trend is the hardest form of trading there is .. It is also the most seductive type of trading there is I'm just as susceptible to this as anyone else.

It is much easier to make money, in the long run, trading with the trend, than fighting the trend.

---

I agree with you, Businessman.
" ...susceptible to this as anyone else..." probably because it always looks like a perfect reversal. And, at this point, the market looks so overbought/oversold. And, by this point, there have been a couple of with trend trades that just didn't look right and therefore were not taken... It's hard to resist the urge to simply act and take a "so promising counter-trend trade". Wouldn't you agree?
 
Let's see, I want to put on a discretionary trade, and it takes less than 10 seconds to objectively determine an overvaluation or undervaluation.

There is no excuse for this. Any discretionary trade, especially one for stocks, regardless, has to look at the fundamentals, and we certainly knew in NFLX's case that their earnings outlook suddenly became very negative.

Switching to a stronger watchlist like the NASDAQ 100 would greatly improve Neke's chances of turning a profit, and there is nothing wrong with this. Getting to know an index and its index components rather than a random gotta consider everything for a possible trade watchlist would really help, because if you're right about the index generally the index components follow the same correlations.
 
bw- what in the world is a matter with you???

One NEED NOT LOOK AT THE FUNDAMENTALS ONE IOTA to determine if a trade is warranted to the long side or short side!

Do you really need me to show you a chart of a single digit PE stock that your shallow mentality would deem a value play and a great buy at a particular price....only to decline signficantly due to the chart showing you there was no demand whatsover at the time???

Do you really need me to show you a chart of a triple digit PE stock that your shallow mentality would deem a "run for the hills" overvalued play and one that should be avoided...only to rise significantly in price due to the chart showing you that supply was exhausted and demand was high?

Dude- I've read your posts-- your responses are perfectly understandable now.
 
BW is right in that an Index can be better to day trade sometimes since its less affected by individual company news.

Selling a put or any option for a premium can be a good trade.

However, one must remember that selling a put is the same as buying the stock at that price.

If one determines that the price you will get is a good price to be long a stock, and especially if you would like to own the stock at that price, its a good strategy.

One may not realize as stock moves in a certain direction with increased momentum, the value of the insurance which is what an option sometimes is, increases.

So for example, you own Netflix the stock. You see it start to decline, you want to buy some short term insurance. The cost of insurance goes up while the forest near your house is on fire, than if you bought the insurance before there were any hints of smoke.

Unlike real insurance, anyone can sell put options, but if you do this strategy, you must remember that you are in the insurance business.

So you need to decide what price it is worth it to sell the insurance, and how much insurance your company can afford to sell.

The problem is that when you sell insurance and there is a fire, you are going to pay more money to replace the house than one month's premium of insurance. So you must be able to build up an account over time to handle the fires.
 
Quote from Riffraffpatrol:

bw- what in the world is a matter with you???

One NEED NOT LOOK AT THE FUNDAMENTALS ONE IOTA to determine if a trade is warranted to the long side or short side!
More...

That's a bit of an overstatement. If you are holding a position over a prolonged period of time, say several quarters, fundamentals do matter.
I find the following principles to hold true to good trading for swing trading:

1. The whole is greater than the sum of the parts: Use both fundamental and technical analysis. To use only 1 would be to get an incomplete picture.

2. The Market and Life is Pareto Efficient: Focus on the gains that will account for 80% of your profits but that will occur only 20% of the time. It's like being at the plate in baseball and swinging at every pitch. You're going to strikeout.

3. Carpe Diem: Sieze the opportunities at hand. When those 80/20 trades come up. Bet, and bet big. Going anywhere worthwhile means going for the fences when the hanging curve ball is coming.

I will not arm-chair qb nekes trading. Although I do watch for him to turn his operations around.

Trading is a grind. But its not a grind in the sense that you have to make your daily nut everyday, but a grind in waiting. As in poker, many people believe in grinding out hands/hr (online) and by the shear number of hands they can brute force their way to winnings simply by law of large numbers, positive expectancy, and several small pots. No doubt the small pots will get you by, but hopefully only to hold you over until the big one comes along.

The real grind is waiting for the right moment to go all-in.
 
Neke,

What the hell is wrong with you ?

WTF are you doing, throwing money away, is this journal some sort of joke or do you take pleasure in being one ?

You enter at key areas, and if the key area does not go your way, you get the heck out.

If you get faked and it ends up going your way, you get the heck back in.

Forget fundamentals, forget what you think about a company, index or market, just trade price at key levels.

Seriously, wtf is wrong with you.

Crazy A
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top