Sorry-fundamental analysis has NOTHING to do with active trading. What did a high PE have to do with the 8 point correction to long side earlier in week? Zip that's what- and the same can be said for a myriad of other stocks.
2011: Rebuilding My Battered Account
- Thread starter neke
- Start date
- Status
Ridiculous. Trading is not investing. U couldnt be more wrong.
Care to explaing how a stock with a 100 PE can correct at a swing point? X
Clueless...
Care to explaing how a stock with a 100 PE can correct at a swing point? X
Clueless...
Hey bw--
Would u like me to show u some stocks w/ single digit pe ratios where u woulda lost your &$$ going long??
Would u like me to show u some stocks w/ single digit pe ratios where u woulda lost your &$$ going long??
come on, all you great traders....
pls do have compassion for trader like neke....
it is like a hundred volcano imploding within him,
everything that his better self touches, turns against him....
we all are looking from outside the box and could see clearly what have been happening.
but neke is there by himself within the thick woods, and everywhere he looks.... there are only trees and more trees in front of him....
neke could very well comes out of this woods, if he would only allows himself to just be himself looking back to what he did the first enormously successful years....
neke, just pull yourself together and put yourself in charge again just like what you did so well in the beginning....
neke, do it.... my friend! just put yourself in charge!
take back your leadership and ownership from your emotions.
neke, you are in charge, ok?
no one here can do it for you. with your passion in trading, you could make those back within a year! many old timers here accumulated more than six-figure just within last few weeks, while every dicks and janes were complaining how bad the economics and markets were....
neke, i believe you can do it all over again. you have shown us here that you are full of the right stuff and an unquenchable fortitude.
just take off to tibet or somewhere remote where you can enjoy all the luxury in life, for a month or so, with your best friend....
and when you come back, we all will still be here to render all our moral support and whatever you need to recover whatever you desire to recover. just to assure you that most would be here, many here have been in the market since before 1985.... just imagine that!
go away to seclude your good self and have fun to the extreme for however long, it won't cost you more than 50k for a month in luxury....
on the flip side, you would end up in the statistical pools as just a series of number precedes with a giant N....
neke, what is it going to be, our trading comrade?
going to take responsibility for yourself so you may become a great trading example for generations to come? you are the absolute master of yourself, K?
(katherine, void the $750 receipt. this last one-half hour analysis is free for neke with the hope that he would return much greater and much more enriched then, than tody!)
Sorry to hear your loss. Time for a break?
freewilly
freewilly
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 37/50 ended 9/24/2011
Another disastrous week, down 22K (11.4%).
The big culprit was NFLX. I thought I could try my hands on a new thing: writing uncovered option. Sold $15K worth of Oct150 PUT on Monday as the stock was putting behind two days of huge declines, thinking all is over, I could pocket the rich premiums holding till expiration. needless to day I was massively wrong as I had to bow out two days later with losses bigger than 20K - more than I could have ever realised from that trade. One costly experiment that ended almost as soon as started. Never ever again going to trade something I could easily lose more than the maximum upside, however good the odds.
After taking a look at my contrarian approach, and the NFLX move above, it has become clearer I need to cut-off the contrarian, and do more of momentum (trend). Just to think that I actually bought some PUTs on NFLX last thursday on the first down day, when the price hit $180 soon after the open, and yet got out at a loss when the price bounced as far ar 184, before the price came down to close that day @ 169, followed by several more days of big declines. Just one of such being right could have made up for a lot of stop-outs.
It's been a horrific draw-down. My account hit a week-end balance of $635K on 10/24/2009. Adjusting for a cash withdrawal of $150K since then, the current balance is down 65% from the adjusted high of $485K. Alternatively, adding back withdrawals, the current balance would be $322K from the $635K, a drawdown of 49%. Both are well above my maximum expectation of a 40% drawdown. Will be shutting down all manual contrarian strategies, and sizing down on the automated ones even further while I explore other possibilities.
Code:Opening Balance: 194,247 Net loss for the week 22,244 ------------------------------------------------- Net Balance: 172,003 Since Inception of Thread 01/8/2011 - 9/24/2011 Opening Balance: 335,899 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) 163,896 (Down 49%) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 172,003
I am not going to tell you what to do, but from my past experiences of big drawdowns, the temptation is to make it all back quickly so you can feel better. You have to get rid of that emotion and build up the account step by step. It will take time to get back to your previous highs. DO NOT RUSH. But also don't go on a month long vacation or take a long break. You will feel miserable about doing nothing while you are down. The only way to rebuild confidence and put yourself in the right trading mindset is to trade.
Be very selective. When the golden trading opportunity arrives, take the trade. If you have a winning edge, your trades will be high probability and you will start making money. But you've got to be selective and take only the best trades. When your confidence is down, 55/45 trades don't help. You need 70/30 trades, where you have at least a 70% chance of winning. Good luck.
Be very selective. When the golden trading opportunity arrives, take the trade. If you have a winning edge, your trades will be high probability and you will start making money. But you've got to be selective and take only the best trades. When your confidence is down, 55/45 trades don't help. You need 70/30 trades, where you have at least a 70% chance of winning. Good luck.
Good idea.. the markets are very volatile at the moment so counter trend turning points are very hard to nail.
Quote from Businessman (08-21-11):
Mean reversion/counter trend is the hardest form of trading there is .. It is also the most seductive type of trading there isI'm just as susceptible to this as anyone else.
It is much easier to make money, in the long run, trading with the trend, than fighting the trend.
- Status