2011: Rebuilding My Battered Account
- Thread starter neke
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GordonTheGekko
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You're making great progress. Keep up the good work, in no time it will be '12 and you'll be seriously picking up your game 
IMHO, please still (or consider starting) getting in the habit of spending considerable time practicing your paper trading. A nice paper trade website works, or just use a journal and pencil in front of your real software to provide the most realism. The systems that got you huge returns are a little dull now, so you ought to consider looking at new ideas, both automated and self ordered.
IMHO, please still (or consider starting) getting in the habit of spending considerable time practicing your paper trading. A nice paper trade website works, or just use a journal and pencil in front of your real software to provide the most realism. The systems that got you huge returns are a little dull now, so you ought to consider looking at new ideas, both automated and self ordered.
Quote from neke:
Weekly Update for week 48/50 ended 12/10/2011
OK week, up 2.5K (1.5%). Trudged through another quiet week in the market. Key remains being alert and avoiding the urge to take on trades just to create activity.
Code:Opening Balance: 168,995 Net gain for the week 2,506 ------------------------------------------------- Net Balance: 171,501 Since Inception of Thread 01/8/2011 - 12/10/2011 Opening Balance: 335,899 Net loss (Less Margin Interest) (159,398) (Down 47.5%) Cash Withdrawal (5,000) ------------------------------------------------ Net Balance 171,501
http://www.fool.com/investing/dividends-income/2009/08/07/how-does-goldman-make-so-much-money.aspx
"You've probably heard by now that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ) shot the lights out last quarter. In its 10-Q, released earlier this week, the investment bank shows just how successfully it's navigating current markets. During the second quarter, Goldman made more than $100 million in trading revenue in each of a record 46 days, with just two losing days out of 65 â for an astonishing hit rate of 97%!"
Really, they are making around $ 100 million a day with a 97% win ratio on fundamental analysis? Tell me another story. It's all public record. I am not saying they also don't make money using quants and placing longer term bets, but they sure don't spend $ millions on placing servers on the trading floor and paying for 1 second or less front running if they did not make these kinds of profits. I bet they see Neke's orders and crush him whenever he makes a big bet.
"You've probably heard by now that Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS ) shot the lights out last quarter. In its 10-Q, released earlier this week, the investment bank shows just how successfully it's navigating current markets. During the second quarter, Goldman made more than $100 million in trading revenue in each of a record 46 days, with just two losing days out of 65 â for an astonishing hit rate of 97%!"
Really, they are making around $ 100 million a day with a 97% win ratio on fundamental analysis? Tell me another story. It's all public record. I am not saying they also don't make money using quants and placing longer term bets, but they sure don't spend $ millions on placing servers on the trading floor and paying for 1 second or less front running if they did not make these kinds of profits. I bet they see Neke's orders and crush him whenever he makes a big bet.
They dont have a 97% win rate from speculative trading, they make that almost guaranteed profit from spreads, fees etc
When it comes to real trading they shut down their Alpha hedge fund in september due to losses:
(Reuters) - Goldman Sachs Group Inc is shuttering a well-known hedge fund that relies on computer-driven trading strategies after the portfolio rang up a hefty loss this year.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/16/us-goldmansachs-hedgefund-idUSTRE78F28Y20110916
This kind of question really doesn't belong here. The only people who believe this or even have this way of thinking are the newest of retail daytraders and people with no idea about the industry at all.
They are making most of this money through commissions (spreads) from order flow. People see 97% and think they are front running or using fundamental analysis and the truth is they are plain and simple making commissions.
Agreed. Take all the traders out of Goldman, put them in single offices with a Bloomberg and 2 trading screens, and let them trade like a professional trader, ie just them on their own with NO backup. Then come back in 6 months to see their trading results.
I'd bet big money only 10% of them would be up a reasonable amount. Plus, I'd hate to see the risk managment of the 90%........
LOL, haha agree fully with you. Its a different mindset to trade prop for a living Vs trading for an institution. 90% of ibank traders will have difficulty adjusting, though I reckon ultimately (after > 2 yrs or so), maybe 20-30% would be consistently profitable on their own.
Edit: Do remember that they are a bunch of 'real-smart kids' there as ibank traders - so sure they will have initial period of adjusting, but ultimately they will do ok....and actually a few of them maybe 2-4% will become really successful and will be trading >10 mm personal accounts within 5-8 yrs of them starting their prop trading operation.
As noted, their code got stolen, it took time for other companies to develop counter measures.
You again can't have it both ways, they either have made money from spreads and HFT, or they lost money from spreads and HFT.
So we look at why are they losing money now, and we see that their code got stolen, and it was stolen by a programmer not a prop day trader.
As far as know Quants are not being hired to sit in front of a screen and trade, they are being hire to develop black box strategies.
I don't compete against these type of people. All of my trades today were winners, and I don't have to be a Quant to win.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/02/12/us-aleynikov-idUSTRE61A5P120100212
You again can't have it both ways, they either have made money from spreads and HFT, or they lost money from spreads and HFT.
So we look at why are they losing money now, and we see that their code got stolen, and it was stolen by a programmer not a prop day trader.
As far as know Quants are not being hired to sit in front of a screen and trade, they are being hire to develop black box strategies.
I don't compete against these type of people. All of my trades today were winners, and I don't have to be a Quant to win.
http://www.reuters.com/article/2010/02/12/us-aleynikov-idUSTRE61A5P120100212
Jon Stevens Corzine (born January 1, 1947) is the former CEO of Goldman Sachs and he made a stupid 40 to 1 over leveraged bet on European debt that blew up MF Global. So how smart are these traders? Not very.
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