2010 and 2012 prediction
- Thread starter KINGOFSHORTS
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(via Political Wire)
Public Policy Polling:
Perhaps the greatest measure of Obama's declining support is that just 50% of voters now say they prefer having him as President to George W. Bush, with 44% saying they'd rather have his predecessor. Given the horrendous approval ratings Bush showed during his final term that's somewhat of a surprise and an indication that voters are increasingly placing the blame on Obama for the country's difficulties instead of giving him space because of the tough situation he inherited. The closeness in the Obama/Bush numbers also has implications for the 2010 elections. Using the Bush card may not be particularly effective for Democrats anymore, which is good news generally for Republicans and especially ones like Rob Portman who are running for office and have close ties to the former President.
Public Policy Polling:
Perhaps the greatest measure of Obama's declining support is that just 50% of voters now say they prefer having him as President to George W. Bush, with 44% saying they'd rather have his predecessor. Given the horrendous approval ratings Bush showed during his final term that's somewhat of a surprise and an indication that voters are increasingly placing the blame on Obama for the country's difficulties instead of giving him space because of the tough situation he inherited. The closeness in the Obama/Bush numbers also has implications for the 2010 elections. Using the Bush card may not be particularly effective for Democrats anymore, which is good news generally for Republicans and especially ones like Rob Portman who are running for office and have close ties to the former President.
The folks who think Obama is a one termer will be sorely disappointed in 2012
As bad as things are Obamas numbers in the 50's is a good thing for him
Obamas approval ratings don't take into account a large majority of people like myself who disapprove of Obama but will vote for him again over clowns and idiots like Palin,Jindal,newt,Palenty ,Hukabee etc
Around re election time Troops will be coming home from Iraq,Troops will be coming home from Afghanistan,He will start to spend the stimulus money that he refuses to release now .Whatever health care bill that is passed will be portrayed as one of the greatest accomplishments in American history by Obamas media and because people will see no difference in their current health care as Obama care will not have taken effect they will believe it is a success with everybody covered. Republicans will look like dumb asses for saying that Obama care was the end of the world.With the exception of 2 months job losses has decreased under Obama and that trend will continue and the economy will have improved,Obamas media will give credit to the Great Obama.IF there are no terrorist attacks Obamas media will say unlike Bush Obama kept the country safe
The birthers,teabaggers,Palin fans etc will continue to look like a bunch of fucking idiots which makes Republicans look like idiots.Republican infighting among those groups and Religious nuts will continue to hurt the party
I'm no fan of Bush but the guy gets a bad rap.With the exception of health care and taxes Obama is continuing Bush's polices (Escalating wars and war surges,bailouts,same fed chief,same defense secretary etc)and the pro and Anti Obama crowd think their different
Obamas job approval rating is around 50,but his favorably rating is in the 70's.Bush and Chaney are hated.They're all the same but one has a charming smile and personality and he is loved
As bad as things are Obamas numbers in the 50's is a good thing for him
Obamas approval ratings don't take into account a large majority of people like myself who disapprove of Obama but will vote for him again over clowns and idiots like Palin,Jindal,newt,Palenty ,Hukabee etc
Around re election time Troops will be coming home from Iraq,Troops will be coming home from Afghanistan,He will start to spend the stimulus money that he refuses to release now .Whatever health care bill that is passed will be portrayed as one of the greatest accomplishments in American history by Obamas media and because people will see no difference in their current health care as Obama care will not have taken effect they will believe it is a success with everybody covered. Republicans will look like dumb asses for saying that Obama care was the end of the world.With the exception of 2 months job losses has decreased under Obama and that trend will continue and the economy will have improved,Obamas media will give credit to the Great Obama.IF there are no terrorist attacks Obamas media will say unlike Bush Obama kept the country safe
The birthers,teabaggers,Palin fans etc will continue to look like a bunch of fucking idiots which makes Republicans look like idiots.Republican infighting among those groups and Religious nuts will continue to hurt the party
I'm no fan of Bush but the guy gets a bad rap.With the exception of health care and taxes Obama is continuing Bush's polices (Escalating wars and war surges,bailouts,same fed chief,same defense secretary etc)and the pro and Anti Obama crowd think their different
Obamas job approval rating is around 50,but his favorably rating is in the 70's.Bush and Chaney are hated.They're all the same but one has a charming smile and personality and he is loved
The only problem with your argument is that there were Republican presidents until 1992. You could easily equate McCain with Ross Perot. Although I don't totally disagree with your analysis of a radical upbringing in a party I would like to remind you about the political problems that both parties face right now.
There is gigantic disgust and disagreement among both parties to date. I suggest you take a trip over to democraticungerground.com, conservativesforum.com and your local neighborhood. There are a large amount of Democrats who still passionatley support Obama while their are a ton of Democrats who are completely dissapointed by Obama's lack of commitment to healthcare and foreign policy. On the other hand there are a ton of Republicans who view Bush as a completely irresponsible Republican while there are a large amount who still passionately support Bush.
2012 won't be a fight between liberals and conservatives. It will be a fight between far left liberals, liberals, conservatives and far right conservatives. Whichever primary has a stronger and more tremendous winner will no doubt win the presidency.
Please, go ahead and name a strong democratic or independent possible candidate that would take votes away from Obama's base the way Perot took away from Bush 41...
Name a candidate that would take votes away from Obama's base? What base lol? Have you been sleeping in a cave the last six months? You act as if Obama's base is unified right now. Obama's base is completely split at this point. The defectors have major problems with Obama's advocacy and enthusiasm of the public option, the countries unemployment and his policy on Afghanistan. If the 2012 election was held today the turnout of progressives would be sharply lower. The only way Obama brings his base back together is if he has amazingly positive results in all three issues I mentioned.
Look at the talking heads that represent a large portion of progressives. Have you watched Ed Shultz and Olbermann lately? Both have major problems with Obama. Olbermann even went so far as to entertain the idea of a more progressive independent running against Obama in 2012.
If that isn't enough for you then take a trip over to democraticunderground.com. A large amount of liberals there have big problems with Obama right now.
I am not arguing that there is not a split between Republicans as well. There is. However my tone towards you is that you risk portraying the trait of complete obliviousness when you openly point out a split between one party while ignoring an avalanche of disagreement currently taking place in another party.
Obama's base is the same, the base that got him elected is not going to vote for either Sarah Palin as a third party candidate nor another John McCain republican type.
Oh well, I guess you are wrong again...
The difference you apparently fail to grasp is that Obama is the incumbent, the republican party is in shambles...
Oh, and you didn't name a single third party candidate that would pull from Obama's base that got him elected...
You apparently have no knowledge of democratic history, must be the poor education you got...
Democrats have squabbled within their party for a long time, it is considered normal. Unlike republicans, they don't desire homogeneity like the klannish. Their process at presidential conventions is filled with disagreement, but they put up one candidate, and they don't have a strong third party candidate in sight...
Can you even name a strong third party candidate that pulled more than 10% of the vote who was not right wing?
Oh well, I guess you are wrong again...
The difference you apparently fail to grasp is that Obama is the incumbent, the republican party is in shambles...
Oh, and you didn't name a single third party candidate that would pull from Obama's base that got him elected...
You apparently have no knowledge of democratic history, must be the poor education you got...
Democrats have squabbled within their party for a long time, it is considered normal. Unlike republicans, they don't desire homogeneity like the klannish. Their process at presidential conventions is filled with disagreement, but they put up one candidate, and they don't have a strong third party candidate in sight...
Can you even name a strong third party candidate that pulled more than 10% of the vote who was not right wing?
A third party candidate running against Obama wasn't my idea. It was Olbermann's. My idea was that disappointed liberals and independents will simply not vote.
A large amount of Obama's base is not the same and will not vote for a conservative third party candidate. They will simply not vote because of their disappointment with Obama which gives his main opponent a much greater chance of winning. That means that even though there may be a third party conservative candidate with no other third party liberal candidates, Obama will still have trouble getting reelected. Get it yet?
Why don't you ask Olbermann which candidate will run against Obama. He's the one advocating the idea. http://tpmtv.talkingpointsmemo.com/tag/2012?id=3350081
Also, both parties are in shambles. Look at party approval ratings. Republicans are at 44.2 and Democrats are at 43.4. http://realclearpolitics.com/
Lastly are you trying to claim that I lack democratic knowledge because I said that a president will lose an election based on a portion of his base simply not voting? Are you serious?