2010 and 2012 prediction

[NeoRio1]

Quote from OPTIONAL777:

The far left had issues with Clinton, because Clinton like Obama was essentially moderate.

Did this generate a strong liberal third party candidate?

How well did Nader do?

LOL!!!

If you can think of a genuinely moderate republican that could get the nomination in 2012, name them...

No, it won't likely be a moderate, and no the hard left who is upset with Obama on some issues won't stay away from the polls and voting for Obama if it means we get some hard right wing republican candidate in 2012...

People go to vote these days nearly as much for voting against someone as they do because they really like their candidate...

You still have not presented a cogent picture of why the republicans are not in danger of a third party candidate like Sarah Palin, nor have you presented any great plan for attracting the same base that voted in Obama in 2012 to your conservative camp...

When did I say Republicans were not in danger? They are without a doubt in more danger.

When did I say there would be a strong third party liberal candidate?

You and your assumptions.

All I am saying is that the possible scenarios of Obama losing reelection have increased because of his policies thus far. Do I think the odds of him winning are still in his favor? Of course. Do I think conservatives have the ability of royally screwing up 2012? Of course.

If Republicans nominate a somewhat moderate Republican and conservatives are politically smart enough to forget about a third party candidate then Obama will have some problems. Not as many disappointed liberals will be motivated to vote against a moderate Republican and a larger portion of independents will vote for a moderate Republican. This scenario isn't probable, but it is possible.

 

[Ghost of Cutten]

My prediction is that Obama will win the presidential election comfortably. However, I doubt we will see the 10-1 odds that made him such an attractive intrade bet back in the day.

Ideally, Obama gets the mid-term blues, driving him down to maybe 25% on intrade. And to be honest he's a good bet anywhere below about 35%.