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200%/year for an AVERAGE trader according to Acrary, still true?
- Thread starter shortie
- Start date
nonsense. as shown by the tuco data the average profitable trader makes less that a job wage. the outlier is the trader with big profits.Quote from acrary:
I occassionally stop by, so I'm not totally off the net. While a average trader will undoubtedly lose money, an average profitable trader shouldn't have trouble with the math of 200%+ profits before taxes and withdrawls.
Here's the math for a trader that does 275 trades/yr with a profit factor of 1.5 and risks 1.75% per-trade. Starting amount in this example is 150,000. Outcome is profit net of the starting capital.
Try 200% per month for that size of account.
200% per year still doable for $100 M accounts.
He, who stops the flow of rivers, is not an average trader, however.
200% per year still doable for $100 M accounts.
He, who stops the flow of rivers, is not an average trader, however.
Quote from vhehn:
nonsense. as shown by the tuco data the average profitable trader makes less that a job wage. the outlier is the trader with big profits.
I'm not sure what you're saying nonense about. The numbers can be checked using any Monte Carlo sim. I don't think trading about once per-day with a 1.5 profit factor is anything incredible.
Risking 1.75% of a account wouldn't suite me, but if I had a small
account;I could see it happening. Maybe the average traders in Tuco didn't have even 100k in their accounts or maybe they had to do periodic withdrawls to live on. To assume trading once per-day is impossible would seem silly to many on this board. Maybe they don't have a profitable strategy. In that case they couldn't be called a pro trader. Anyone could cobble together a handful of systems from Futures Truth and replicate these results. That more aren't doing it is probably a reflection of the capitalization of people wanting to trade and/or a poorly thought out trading plan.
Anyway, Happy New Year.
That's absurd. If you started with 150k and made 200% per month, you would have more money than Warren Buffett in a year.
If you meant a trader could generate 300k per month, but only have a system to keep a constant 150k in play, the yearly return would be 2400%. I don't doubt there are people who have done 2400% in a year. I don't even doubt that somewhere someone has done it on a 150k account once in the history of the stock market.
But I will buy you lunch if you can document one trader who has ever done it three straight years.
If you meant a trader could generate 300k per month, but only have a system to keep a constant 150k in play, the yearly return would be 2400%. I don't doubt there are people who have done 2400% in a year. I don't even doubt that somewhere someone has done it on a 150k account once in the history of the stock market.
But I will buy you lunch if you can document one trader who has ever done it three straight years.
Quote from SomeYoungGuy:
That's absurd. If you started with 150k and made 200% per month, you would have more money than Warren Buffett in a year.
If you meant a trader could generate 300k per month, but only have a system to keep a constant 150k in play, the yearly return would be 2400%. I don't doubt there are people who have done 2400% in a year. I don't even doubt that somewhere someone has done it on a 150k account once in the history of the stock market.
But I will buy you lunch if you can document one trader who has ever done it three straight years.
200% per-month isn't reasonable. I was making the case that a target of 200% per-year is a reasonable goal for a small trading account.
I was responding to riverstopper. I didn't see his postcount before authoring my missive.
Hi Acrary
Great to see you mate....
You have more wisdom on trading than most will ever know.
Just wanted to say thanks for all of your posts. I personally have missed them.
Happy new year and all the Best
John
Great to see you mate....
You have more wisdom on trading than most will ever know.
Just wanted to say thanks for all of your posts. I personally have missed them.
Happy new year and all the Best
John
John Arnold of Centarus is worth about $3 billion, although he's only 35 years old. He has a track record of triple digit returns (100% - 300%) per year for at least 4 out the last 7 years... and he manages a billion dollar hedge fund.
At least in theory it's probable for someone with a $200k account, given the successes of the John Arnolds and the Steve Cohens of the world. They were able to do it with multimillion dollars, growing it to multibillion dollars.
The truth, however, is that they are the exception, not the rule.
Walt
At least in theory it's probable for someone with a $200k account, given the successes of the John Arnolds and the Steve Cohens of the world. They were able to do it with multimillion dollars, growing it to multibillion dollars.
The truth, however, is that they are the exception, not the rule.
Walt